6 trends to watch for fantasy football: Preseason Week 2

New York Times

a day ago

In today's era of fantasy football, you can't afford to wait until potential trends become obvious signals. By the time everyone agrees these developments matter, the edge is gone — which is why I write this column. My goal is to help you spot trends before your competition, hopefully leading you to this year's league-winning pick, like Brock Bowers, Brian Thomas or Jayden Daniels last season.
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Each week, I flag developing trends that might matter for fantasy football. Last Saturday, this column highlighted De'Von Achane's usage, Emeka Egbuka's opportunity and Isaac TeSlaa's flashes, estimating Achane's preseason ADP will drop slightly while Egbuka's and TeSlaa's will rise significantly.
I'll review each developing trend after three weeks to improve my process and help you understand the value of this column, and because it was a popular addition to my 13 insights column from 2023. Unless otherwise noted, all stats are tailored to redraft, half-PPR, 1-QB leagues.
Six things I learned this week:
Rice might be my favorite pick in all of fantasy football, even if he ends up suspended for a few games (so long as it's less than four). The reason is obvious: Rice finished as the WR15 in points per game last season, despite playing just 6% of snaps in Week 4.
In his first three, healthy weeks, Rice averaged 17.6 points per game as the focal point of Kansas City's offense. And he kept getting better, catching 12 of 14 targets for 110 yards and a touchdown in his third and final regular-season game. The 25-year-old suffered a brutal knee injury, also contributing to his depressed ADP, but I'm not at all worried after speaking with The Athletic's Chiefs beat reporter Jesse Newell.
Here's what he said when I asked him about Rice's knee:
💬 Jesse: 'People around the Chiefs actually think Rice might have more explosiveness than he did pre-injury. And remember, Rice was off to a monster start for the Chiefs in 2024, with 24 catches for 288 yards in three and a half games before suffering his setback.
'When he's on the field, I fully expect Rice to be the Chiefs' No. 1 WR, as he's been quarterback Patrick Mahomes' favorite target by far in training camp. The Chiefs believe Rice still has more ceiling to show, and that should come this year (at some point) if he remains healthy.'
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Favorite target. By far. More explosive than last year. I'm all in on Rice, whose 17.6 points per game would've ranked behind only Ja'Marr Chase across the entire season. A potential top-5 receiver at WR35?! That won't last, folks.
Projected early-September ADP: 51 overall, WR24. And even that's still cheap for Rice, who I'd draft over Garrett Wilson.
The Seahawks' 32-year-old slot receiver isn't an attractive pick, and I don't blame anyone for passing on him. After all, Kupp's finished as the WR41 and WR40, respectively, across the past two seasons, missing five games in each. His move to Seattle brings an obvious downgrade at quarterback and additional competition for slot targets from Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the league's most productive slot receiver last season.
But I'd draft Kupp a round early, and you probably should, too. Here's why:
1.) The opportunity — As Michael Salfino aptly explained, 130 targets is a reasonable expectation for Kupp, given the absence of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
2.) The skill — Beat reporter Michael-Shawn Dugar has made it clear: Kupp is not washed.
'Kupp gets open with elite quickness out of his breaks. This stands out when he's going against [corner Devon] Witherspoon, whose twitchiness is next level. Kupp has shown the mental and physical capacity to win his fair share of battles against one of the best.'
Last season, Kupp finished WR22 on a points-per-game basis despite being phased out of the Rams' final three regular-season games, and fantasy points per game is the best metric for predicting a player's results the next season.
So, sure, he might not stay healthy, but when Kupp is in your lineup, you're getting a top-25 receiver at a WR45 price tag. The latter will change as your leaguemates learn of Kupp's impressive training camp. I'd take Kupp over Jayden Reed, Rome Odunze and Jauan Jennings.
Projected early-September ADP: 85 overall, WR39
Allen's ADP jumped when he signed with the Chargers, but not high enough. Concerns over his 2024 production, when he finished WR35, are overblown. The only person to blame for last season is former Bears offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, whose scheme made life difficult for Caleb Williams and his receivers.
In other words, this is still the same player who finished as WR8 overall with the Chargers in 2023, despite playing just 13 games. Allen is ready to pick up where he left off, as The Athletic's Chargers beat reporter Daniel Popper has written, with Allen already making his mark in practice.
As for his position, like Kupp, the 33-year-old Allen finds himself competing for slot targets with a younger incumbent. I'd expect the Chargers to rotate him and Ladd McConkey, but give Allen more reps on the outside. Here's why that's a good thing:
Also: Who else can Justin Herbert throw to? Jerry Rice's son? Come on, man! If the market fails to adjust, we should all benefit. I doubt we're this lucky for much longer.
Projected early-September ADP: 91 overall, WR43
Godwin's injury offers the biggest points-per-game discount among all top players, as he's drafted a whopping 39 spots below his points per game rank among receivers last year (he finished WR2, yet is being drafted as WR42).
The obvious reason is the uncertainty surrounding his ankle injury, which is justified after he had a second surgery in the spring and is likely to start the season on the PUP list.
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Buccaneers beat reporter Rick Stroud shared GM Jason Licht's statements that Godwin is 'exactly where they anticipated and hoped he would be at this point,' but that 'We've still got a ways to go.'
That risk is already baked into his price at WR42, so even if I have to replace Godwin in the early weeks, I'm targeting the 29-year-old who led the NFL in receptions, receiving touchdowns and yards after the catch before his injury. However, his ADP likely continues to fall as he misses more practice time, so I'd rather watch him fall to me than take him above his ADP.
Projected early-September ADP: 98 overall, WR46
The Jets' best running back this offseason, Allen, has elevated to become 'one of the most impressive guys on the field over two days' of joint practices with the Jets, according to The Athletic's beat reporter Zack Rosenblatt.
If Allen continues to impress, the Jets could tailor their offense to the 21-year-old RB in his second year.
'Braelon is a 240-pound man that's always falling forward,' said Aaron Glenn. 'I'm not just saying in short yardage, those downhill runs, it's going to weigh on defensive players, and when you continue to do that, you just create something as far as a team, as far as an identity, that this league will take notice of, and I'm looking forward to that.'
While Breece Hall remains the starter and should see more work in the passing game, I expect the 50/50 nature of this split to become more evident as we approach the regular season. Allen has been a star in training camp, running behind a much-improved offensive line, catching dump-offs from Justin Fields and pairing well with Fields in a run-heavy offense.
Projected late-August ADP: 115 overall, RB38
Here's a secret from Browns camp: Fannin looks like a potential No. 2 option in their passing game.
Despite leading college football in receiving yardage last year, the 21-year-old remains a hidden gem at the tight end position.
This caught my eye in Zac Jackson's training camp report:
'Fannin is ahead of schedule, even if (Kevin) Stefanski won't directly say it. And after the rookie tight end dropped a touchdown pass from Flacco on the second play of practice Thursday, Fannin responded by catching the next one — and later scoring again on a deep corner route from Gabriel.
'Fannin is going to line up all over the formation, and he's absolutely going to be involved in the offense.'
.@_dillongabriel_ deeeeeep ➡️ @fannin_jr ➡️ end zone pic.twitter.com/22APAf0qAf
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) August 14, 2025
Undrafted everywhere but the deepest of leagues, Fannin's currently listed as the TE47 in ESPN's ADP, behind names like Mitchell Evans (?) and Brock Wright (!). He should easily beat that in a Browns offense expected to feature two tight ends, with David Njoku potentially taking more blocking snaps.
Projection: Remains free, finishes as a top-20 tight end.
To be reviewed in two weeks.
(Photo of Rashee Rice: Denny Medley / Imagn Images)
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