Full-Size EV Pickup Trucks Have a Residual Problem, with One Exception
Ford has already backtracked on big electric pickups, instead turning toward developing extended-range full-size trucks to maintain range along with towing and hauling capacity.
Meantime, residuals on EVs in the segment lose much of their original value after three years, with the Tesla Cybertruck faring the best among the bunch.
If the global and domestic EV market has become more uncertain in the past few months—what with the upheaval in Europe from Chinese electric vehicle exports and the Trump administration pouring cold water on the Biden administration's tax credits and cross-country charging network—there is some certainty about the future of full-size electric-powered pickup trucks.
They face a rocky road ahead.
Full-size EV pickup trucks fall well short of their internal-combustion counterparts when it comes to towing and hauling. Even if most Ford F-150, Ram, or Chevy Silverado pickup owners tow or haul just once a year, they generally count on their truck being able to do so reliably.
EV pickup trucks tend to lose a lot of range when towing the trailer or hauling the load that gas and diesel pickup trucks are made for.
To keep tabs on how the full-size EV pickup segment holds up, Autoweek is working with our partners at Black Book, a Hearst Automotive data firm, to track what happens to these trucks' residual value at the end of a 36-month lease.
In the same vein as our 'automotive price index basket of cheap vehicles,' we plan to keep tabs on the Black Book residuals to track any fluctuating values over the coming months.
As of March 1, none of the turmoil at Tesla from consumers' reaction to CEO Elon Musk's DOGE brouhaha has had much effect on the Cybertruck's cachet, so far.
According to Black Book's March 1 projections, a base 2024 Tesla Cybertruck AWD crew cab will hold 60.9% of its original $81,985 MSRP for a residual value of $49,900 after the end of a 36-month lease. That's a better share of original price than any other EV pickup tracked by the data firm.
Another Black Book measure of value—wholesale pricing on used Cybertrucks—shows steady but not drastic decline so far. Last May the average wholesale value was $125,500, well above the $81,985 sticker and reflective of the once longtime waiting list for the highly anticipated truck. By February 1, the Cybertruck's wholesale value had fallen just below original price, to $80,050.
On the other end of the residual value scale is the first full-size EV pickup truck from a volume manufacturer, the Ford F-150 Lightning. Black Book estimates a '24 Lightning Lariat Supercrew 4WD stickered at $79,845 when new would be worth just $26,725, or 33.5%, at the end of its three-year lease.
Ford already has thrown in the towel on this segment. In the automaker's 2024 earnings call with Wall Street analysts in early February, CEO Jim Farley said the automaker is developing EREV extended-range electric power for larger vehicles, including big pickups, to maintain range along with towing and hauling capacity.
Smaller vehicles, including sport/utilities, are better suited to EV power, though Ford will continue to market full-size electric vans for the delivery business, Farley said.
Instead of an F-150-size truck, Ford's next EV pickup, on the automaker's new dedicated electric vehicle platform, is expected to be a 'tweener' sized between Ranger and F-150. Consumers of full-size trucks simply expect them to have range and towing capacity without compromise, Farley said.
Other EV pickups evaluated by Black Book include the Rivian R1T, which is actually midsize. An R1T Adventure Dual-Motor AWD crew cab retains an estimated 46.3% of its $80,700 sticker price, or $37,400.
Two General Motors models evaluated by Black Book fall in between.
A '24 GMC Hummer Crew Cab 4WD configured at $99,590 falls, like the Cybertruck, to $49,900 after 36 months. But in the case of the Hummer, that's 50.1% of its original price.
A 2024 Chevrolet Silverado EV Crew Cab 4WD at $80,445 new keeps an estimated 49.4% of its value, or $39,275 after 36 months, Black Book estimates.
Have concerns about residual or resale values of battery-electric vehicles impacted your shopping for full-size pickups? Please comment below.
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