Playbook: Six months in

Politico

20-07-2025

Presented by
With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine and Ali Bianco
Happy Sunday. This is Zack Stanton. Get in touch.
THE CONVERSATION: Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) is a lawyer, former state attorney general and a skilled navigator of the old — and new — wings of the Republican Party. He also has another title: White House whisperer.
On today's episode of 'The Conversation,' Schmitt joins Playbook's Dasha Burns to talk about his closeness with the Trump administration, driving the Senate's $9.4 billion rescissions bill, his involvement with passing Trump's 'big, beautiful bill,' his belief in Medicaid reform, the controversy over the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files and what he describes as his 'America First' — but not isolationist — foreign policy approach. Watch the full episode on YouTube … Listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify
DRIVING THE DAY
SIX MONTHS IN: Welcome to the six-month mark of President Donald Trump's second term.
How Americans see it: A new poll from CBS News/YouGov finds 42 percent of Americans approve of Trump's job performance, while 58 percent disapprove. One big number to watch: 64 percent disapprove of his handling of inflation — up 10 points from March — and with more tariffs due to kick in a few weeks from now, that number may well rise as prices go up.
How Trump wants them to see it: This has been 'one of the most consequential periods of any President,' he wrote in a Truth Social post this morning. 'In other words, we got a lot of good and great things done, including ending numerous wars … Six months is not a long time to have totally revived a major Country.'
One thing complicating that: 'Trump would like nothing better than to point to successes in his second term, and he has had some,' WaPo's Dan Balz writes this morning. 'The swirling Epstein controversy makes that difficult.'
If you survey the headlines this morning, you'll see precious few of the six-months-in prewrites that assignment editors like to tee up. Instead, the space is filled with stories about Epstein and Trump — including the top above-the-fold article on the front page of the Sunday NYT.
Even so, 'there is no indication so far that this is the scandal that will sink Trump any more than the 'Access Hollywood' tape of 2016, or being found guilty in a criminal trial last year over hush money payments to a porn star,' WaPo's Natalie Allison writes.
But: 'If it continues to grab public attention, it could pose a more significant threat at a time when Trump's standing with the public already has been on the decline, though polling shows him steady with his own party.'
On that front, the Epstein story is a massive liability. CBS/YouGov finds 75 percent of Americans disapprove of the administration's handling of matters related to Epstein, and 89 percent want the Justice Department to release all the information it has on the case.
There's no reason to think this story won't continue to hoover up attention.
Partly, that's because it's a topic where there's so much left to be reported out — the contents of the so-called Epstein files, the DOJ's handling of them, the internal dynamics at the White House around the topic, the media angle amid Trump's lawsuit against the Wall Street Journal, and so on. It's incredibly fertile ground for news.
But its staying power is also due, at least in part, not just to the particulars, but to the broader dynamics fueling interest.
'The very tools that helped win Trump two terms — the openness to conspiracy, the distrust of elites, the eruption of a viral moment — have now turned to bedevil him,' USA Today's Susan Page writes.
In that way, the Epstein story is a problem for Trump because it lights up preexisting pathways for many on the MAGA right.
'This is primarily a within-MAGA problem,' Whit Ayres, a longtime Republican pollster, told WaPo. 'The vast majority of Americans don't spend every waking moment wondering what happened to Epstein.'
It's even dividing the MAGA bot networks. NBC's Kevin Collier reports that 'with the MAGA movement split' over the Epstein story, one network of hundreds of reply bots on X has found its 'messaging has broken, offering contradictory statements on the issue and revealing the AI-fueled nature of the accounts.'
In terms of MAGA, the hope for Trump is this: If some amount of interest in the story is at least in part due to conspiracy and a distrust of elites, then he may be able to change the target of that suspicion to the media, as in his lawsuit against the Wall Street Journal over its reporting on Trump and Epstein.
'MAGA is now united, because they can see there's a common enemy,' Steve Bannon told WaPo. 'They see exactly what the reality is — it's the Deep State, with their media partners, led by [Rupert] Murdoch, that's out to destroy Trump.'
SUNDAY BEST …
— Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) on AG Pam Bondi and the release of the Epstein files, on ABC's 'This Week": 'I think her communication with us early on was not as good. I mean that the binder, for instance, that she put out, I was very excited about that. But then I found the contents of it. … I think if she turns a corner, I have a saying: 'It's not how you start; it's how you finish.' If she finishes strong on this, then, then I'm all for it.'
— Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) on the NYT report on Democrats' post-mortem of 2024 not including former President Joe Biden's decision to run, on CNN's 'State of the Union': 'An autopsy should address the actual cause of death. And I felt like if the Democratic nominee, including Vice President [Kamala] Harris, had had the benefit of a full primary process, she would have emerged from it a better candidate.'
— Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard on the potential criminal prosecution of former Obama administration officials, on FOX News' 'Sunday Morning Futures': '[The] intelligence showed that, again, Russia did not have either the intent nor the capability to be able to impact the outcome of the United States' election. … [There's] no question in my mind that this intelligence community assessment that President Obama ordered be published which contained a manufactured intelligence document — it's worse than even politicization of intelligence. … Next week, we will be releasing more detailed information about how exactly this took place.'
— Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, on CBS' 'Face the Nation': 'I think the president is absolutely going to renegotiate USMCA, but that's a year from today. … He doesn't want cars built in Canada or Mexico when they can be built in Michigan and Ohio. It's just better for American workers.'
— Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) on the Epstein file controversy, on CNN's 'State of the Union': 'The president blaming Democrats for this disaster, Jake, is like that CEO that got caught on camera blaming Coldplay. … OK, like this is his making. He was president when Epstein got indicted for these charges and went to prison. He was president when Epstein committed suicide. … The people that have been fomenting this are right-wing influencers, members of Congress, people who have a reason that they want to know what's in there … They believed the president when he said there's stuff in there that people should see.'
TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week's must-read opinion pieces.
9 THINGS THAT STUCK WITH US
1. IMMIGRATION FILES: With new billions in funding, ICE is expanding its detention space with temporary tents — or 'hardened soft-sided facilities' — to ramp up deportations as quickly as possible, WSJ's Michelle Hackman and Elizabeth Findell scoop. The first up would be a 5,000-bed tent city at Fort Bliss in El Paso, Texas. But approval over Trump's mass deportations is still on a downward streak, with CNN polling this morning reporting 55 percent of Americans believe Trump has gone too far on immigration, a 10-point spike since February.
On the ground: After the sweeping raids in Los Angeles, Mayor Karen Bass is once again 'the face of a city under siege' as fear and anxiety grows, POLITICO's Melanie Mason reports. … Online activists have launched websites to report ICE activity and arrests in surrounding areas, garnering thousands of followers and the DOJ's ire, WaPo's Robert Klemko writes. … Immigrants in Minnesota, Illinois and California are losing healthcare under Democratic leadership that once championed their care, per AP's Tran Nguyen and Devi Shastri.
The men freed from CECOT: 'A Kite Surfer, Navy SEAL and Makeup Artist: Freed in a U.S.-Venezuela Swap,' by NYT's Julie Turkewitz: 'The American kite surfer, Lucas Hunter, 37, worked in finance in London and had gone on vacation in Colombia … The Navy SEAL, Wilbert Castañeda, 37, spent his adult life in the U.S. military and had gone to Venezuela to see a romantic partner … The makeup artist, Andry Hernández Romero, fled persecution for his political opinions and sexual orientation … The seller of bicycle parts, Alirio Belloso, 30, left because he could not afford school supplies for his 8-year-old daughter or medicine for his diabetic mother.'
2. FOR PETE'S SAKE: Another senior staffer at the Pentagon has been ousted, CBS' Jennifer Jacobs and colleagues scooped yesterday. Justin Fulcher came to the DOD as a DOGE employee, then became one of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's senior advisers. Fulcher took on that leadership role in the DOD reorganization following Signal-gate, and he's the latest in a string of top-level staffers to exit the Pentagon following the chaotic leak. 'As planned, I've completed 6 months of service in government to my country. … I will continue to champion American warfighters in all future endeavors and remain impressed by the work of the Department of Defense,' Fulcher's statement released by the DOD said.
3. TECH SECTOR: The Trump administration reviewed SpaceX's contracts and determined cutting them would be detrimental to the Defense Department and NASA, WSJ's Brian Schwartz and colleagues scooped last night, as 'breaking up with Elon Musk is easier said than done.' Meanwhile, the administration is 'trying to woo China' by reversing restrictions on trading advanced AI chips, NYT's Ana Swanson and Tripp Mickle write. Not so happy about that: China hawks, who worry China will now make a stronger play over U.S. technology controls.
4. TRADING PLACES: European Union envoys are gearing up to meet this week and plan countermeasures if no deal is made with the U.S. before Aug. 1, Bloomberg's Alberto Nardelli reports. While the goal is to continue negotiations, the talks last week didn't lead to any breakthroughs.
More complications: Exit polls show Japan's ruling coalition is poised to lose its majority in the upper house in today's election — a blow to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who lost the more powerful lower house back in October, and throwing a wrench in Ishiba's policy priorities — including trade talks with the U.S. More from Reuters' Mariko Katsumura and John Geddie
New world order: Some of the U.S.' biggest companies and trading partners are struggling to adapt to a new global economy under Trump's tariffs, raising prices due to inflated costs and an expensive supply chain, WaPo's David Lynch writes. 'The United States is no longer considered the leader of the world trading system. It has opted out,' Alan Wolff, former deputy director of the WTO, told WaPo.
The collateral: 'Less selection, higher prices: How tariffs are shaping the holiday shopping season,' by AP's Anne D'Innocenzio and Mae Anderson
5. FED UP: 'How Bessent Made the Case to Trump Against Firing Fed Chair Powell,' by WSJ's Brian Schwartz and Nick Timiraos: 'Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in recent days privately laid out his case to President Trump for why he believed Trump shouldn't try to oust Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell … Bessent said firing Powell was unnecessary because the economy is doing well and markets have responded positively … Fed officials have signaled they could cut rates twice before year's end … Bessent's cautious approach marks a contrast to other administration officials who have entertained more aggressive tactics. Trump told reporters on Tuesday he feels Bessent is 'soothing.''
6. ON THE HILL: Polarization over Trump's legislative agenda has splintered Congress so deeply that NBC's Sahil Kapur and Frank Thorp V write that the 'last vestige of the bipartisan funding process is at risk of dying,' with the appropriations process growing even more dicey and Democrats blasting Trump for interfering in Congress' budget authority. The tension has exploded in shouting matches, committee walkouts and abandoned deals last week, NYT's Carl Hulse reports.
No August recess?: Trump is calling on Senate Majority Leader John Thune to cancel the off-year break (and long weekends!) to finish getting his nominees confirmed. There's no decision on that yet, but there's been chatter about canceling the first week, POLITICO's Jordain Carney notes on X. That August recess could be a crucial moment for Republicans to sell the massive megabill to their continents.
On that megabill: The cuts to SNAP and other federal food programs will decimate local grocery stores in low-income communities that turned out for Trump in 2024, POLITICO's Rachel Shin reports. And the break for states with the highest rates of waste in SNAP benefits, who wouldn't have to pay for those costs until 2030, could end up discouraging those states from correcting the errors, WaPo's Mariana Alfaro writes.
7. FROM THE WILDERNESS: As the calls get louder for redistricting Texas ahead of next year, Democrats are betting that Republicans will bite off more than they can chew. Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez — whose Texas border district could be a potential target —told AP's Nicolas Riccardi and Nadia Lathan that Dems are already recruiting challengers to seize 'pickup opportunities' in the new map. It comes as House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and other Democrats are weighing a similarly risky move to redraw maps in California, New York, New Jersey, Minnesota and Washington, CNN's Manu Raju and Sarah Ferris report this morning.
2026 watch: Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) is preparing to launch a run against Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) next year, per AJC's Greg Bluestein.
2028 watch: Many Democratic presidential hopefuls — among them Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) — have flocked to South Carolina to make their pitch in a state that will be crucial in the primaries, POLITICO's Brakkton Booker and Elena Schneider write from Pawleys Island.
8. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: More than 60 people were killed today in northern Gaza as Israel launched an attack on the crossing where humanitarian aid trucks enter the strip, NYT's Isabel Kershner and Aaron Boxerman report. The shooting followed an evacuation order for Palestinians to leave parts of central Gaza that have had yet to be targeted. The plan to move into these previously untouched central cities comes as Israel accuses Hamas of stonewalling a ceasefire, Bloomberg's Dan Williams and Fares Alghoul write. Meanwhile in Iran: Iran reached an agreement in principle for nuclear talks with France, Germany and the UK and could possibly begin last week, per Bloomberg's Arsalan Shahla.
A Sunday read: 'Vodka Toasts With the Dictator of Belarus: How Diplomacy Gets Done in Trump 2.0,' by POLITICO's Amy Mackinnon
9. JUDICIARY SQUARE: 'After a Chaotic Start, a U.S. Attorney's Time May Be Running Out,' by NYT's Jonah Bromwich and Tracey Tully: '[Alina] Habba is among the most high-profile of the new U.S. attorneys appointed by a president who has taken closer control of the Justice Department than any other in the past half century. … Her tenure has also shattered morale inside the U.S. attorney's office and left many prosecutors looking for a way out … Prosecutors have chafed at her availability to defense lawyers. She disbanded the office's Civil Rights Division and killed the office's longest-running prosecution just days before it was scheduled to go to trial. … Habba acknowledged that she was unlikely to be appointed by the judges and offered an emotional, pre-emptive farewell.'
TALK OF THE TOWN
BLACKOUT: Large swaths of Dupont Circle are experiencing yet another power outage this morning. Pepco reports power may not be restored until 9 p.m.
ESCAPE FROM NEW YORK, PART I: Zohran Mamdani is traveling to Uganda to celebrate his marriage to Rama Duwaji with their friends and family.
ESCAPE FROM NEW YORK, PART II: Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo told business leaders yesterday that he will move to Florida if Mamdani wins the mayoral election. Cuomo's team later said he was joking.
IN MEMORIAM — 'Award-winning former AP photographer Jo Ann Steck is remembered for her wit and leadership,' by AP's Safiyah Riddle: 'Award-winning photo journalist Jo Ann Steck — who broke barriers in male-dominated newsrooms by capturing some of the most notable moments in recent United States history — has died. She was 73.'
TRANSITIONS — Fernando Brigidi De Mello is now senior campaign strategist for ACLU's new Abuse of Power team. He was previously with VP Kamala Harris's White House office and 2024 campaign, and is a Pete Buttigieg alum.
WEDDING — Annika Nordquist, an incoming PhD candidate in government at Georgetown and daughter of Nels and DJ Nordquist, and Ryan McGregor, partner at Architect Capital, were married last Saturday in Alexandria. They met at a Georgetown house party during the fall of 2020, when Annika was home from Stanford and Ryan was working for Numinar, a political startup. Pic ... Another pic
— Evan Swarztrauber, principal at CorePoint Strategies, and Carolyn Mahoney, an attorney advisor in the space bureau, satellite programs and policy division of the FCC, got married on Saturday in Block Island, Rhode Island. They originally met in 2018 as work friends and reconnected at The Hamilton in 2022. Pic
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D-Calif.) … Tom Friedman … Franklin Foer … CNN's David Chalian … Texas state Rep. Katrina Pierson … WaPo's David Lynch … Anita Decker Breckenridge … Patrick Kelly … King & Spalding's Justin Dews … Jamal Simmons … Hunter McKay of KRC Research … former Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-Md.) … Meta's Don Seymour … Leah Grace Blackwell … Paula Cino … Cornerstone's Max de Vreeze … Tristan Breaux of Rep. Shomari Figures' (D-Ala.) office … Liam Fagan of Sen. Bernie Sanders' (I-Vt.) office … former FCC Chair Dick Wiley (91) … Sharon Copeland of the Herald Group … MSNBC's Joya Manasseh Dioguardi … POLITICO's Kevon Eaglin … Sydney Poindexter … Aloise Phelps
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