Rupee flips back to monthly decline, lags Asian peers
ADVERTISEMENT The rupee closed at 85.5775 on Friday, capping a day of choppy trading with a mild decline.
The currency had rallied to a six-month earlier in May but shed its gains through the month.
Initially, a military conflict between India and Pakistan hurt the currency but it rebounded once a ceasefire was reached. Over the rest of the month, dollar demand from corporates and foreign banks weighed on the rupee, traders said.
Dollar-buying intervention by Reserve Bank of India also put a lid on the sharp appreciation above the 84.60-84.80 zone, according to one of the traders. Meanwhile, the dollar was set to end the month little changed against major peers as mild relief on the softening of U.S. trade policies, typified by the pact with China, gave way to a legal back-and-forth on the legal validity of reciprocal tariffs.
ADVERTISEMENT
Asian currencies were mostly stronger on the month, led by the Korean won while the offshore Chinese yuan, a closely tracked peer of the rupee, rose nearly 1%.
Barclays expects the rupee to underperform its peers going forward as the RBI focuses on replenishing FX reserves and is "unlikely to want to see a renewed richening of the INR," analysts at the firm said in a note earlier this week.
ADVERTISEMENT
India's foreign exchange reserves stood at $685.7 billion as of May 16, about $19 billion below their all-time high hit in September 2024.
Traders now await the release of India's economic growth data for the January-March quarter and U.S. PCE inflation data due later in the day.
ADVERTISEMENT Economists polled by Reuters expect India's GDP to have grown 6.7% year-on-year, up from 6.2% in the previous three months.
(Reporting by Jaspreet Kalra; Editing by Janane Venkatraman)
ADVERTISEMENT
(You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles


Economic Times
22 minutes ago
- Economic Times
Rs 5.6 lakh crore shock! Tata crown jewel hits worst patch since 2008 crisis. Time to panic or buy the fear?
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel Shares of Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) have entered their darkest stretch since the 2008 global financial crisis. The crown jewel of the Tata Group has shed nearly ₹5.66 lakh crore in market value, tumbling 34% from its peak of ₹4,585.90, making 2025 its worst year since that fateful 55% crash 17 years ago. The stock is down 26% in 2025 alone, slashing its market capitalization to ₹10.93 lakh crore from a peak of ₹16.59 lakh rout comes amid a weak demand outlook, the disruptive impact of generative AI and a mixed Q1 scorecard, all of which have triggered a foreign investor exodus. FIIs, who once considered Indian IT their favorite trade, have slashed holdings in TCS from 12.35% in June 2024 to 11.48% in June 2025. Their broader selling has inflicted even deeper pain across the sector with the Nifty IT index plunging 25% so far this year, making it the worst-performing pocket of the market. Out of ₹95,600 crore pulled by FIIs from India in 2025 through July, more than half came from IT stocks funds, however, have played contrarian. Domestic institutions raised their TCS stake from 4.25% to 5.13% in one year and July data showed ₹400 crore of fresh MF meanwhile, have been reset sharply. TCS's trailing PE has halved from 41x to 20x with five-year profit CAGR at 8.5% and stock CAGR at 6%. Long-term data show IT has compounded 12.5% annually over two decades yet underperformed the Nifty in the past three to five funds see opportunity in the rubble. 'With IT's weight in the Nifty near decade lows and leading firms still generating ROICs above 40%, the sector may offer relative outperformance if valuations fall further,' DSP Mutual Fund said, calling IT, banks and other large caps a defensive bucket to ride out Read | FII selling crosses Rs 50,000 crore in IT stocks in 2025. Is tech dead money or just misunderstood? BNP Paribas pointed to dividends as an anchor. TCS's yield is now 3.7% versus its five-year average of 2.9% with the last five-year peak at 3.6%, the brokerage firm said, adding that margin expansion should resume post-FY26 once the BSNL deal ramps down. BNP has an Outperform rating with a ₹4,400 target price arguing that 'resilient fundamentals and attractive valuation make TCS our top pick in the current uncertain macroeconomic environment.'Still, the headlines are not all comforting. TCS's decision to cut 2% of its workforce has drawn scrutiny. 'TCS's move to cut staff may lead to execution slippages in the near term and higher attrition in the longer run. It reflects a weak demand environment,' Jefferies warned, adding that firms unable to capture AI-led productivity gains may have to resort to layoffs. The brokerage remains selective on IT, preferring Infosys and HCL Tech, which it sees as a stronger alternative to TCS.


The Print
22 minutes ago
- The Print
Navigating Trump's tariffs is no child's play. Indian toymakers are losing out on orders, enquiries
'With Vietnam nearing production capacity, the shift in sourcing focus is likely to favour Indonesia, meaning India's loss could become Indonesia's gain,' he told ThePrint. K.A. Shabir, CEO of Chennai-headquartered Funskool India, said a 50 percent tariff 'would have a significant impact on Funskool's exports, as well as on overall Indian toy exports, and would stall the diversification plans that many global brands had for India'. New Delhi: For Indian toymakers, the US is their biggest export market, accounting for a 47 percent share in total exports in FY2024-25. But existing orders have been put on hold and enquiries have dried up since Trump imposed a 50 percent tariff on Indian goods, including a 25 percent penalty for purchase of Russian oil and defence systems. Other Indian toymakers who rely on exports to the US confirmed that the steep tariffs have made a dent. 'We export 80 percent, of which 55 percent is only to the US market,' said Amitabh Kharbanda, director of Sunlord Group, which manufactures soft toys and apparels. 'All new enquiries from the US have stopped and even the existing orders have been put on hold by our customers,' Kharbanda added. In 2020, the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) introduced 'Quality Control Order' (QCO) for domestic manufacturers and importers of toys. The Toys (Quality Control) Order, 2020, mandated that toys for children under the age of 14 adhere to quality standards and bear the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) stamp. The next year, in 2021, the government hiked import duty on toys from 20 percent to 60 percent. In 2023, it was hiked further to 70 percent. This helped restrict low-quality imports from China, while elevating quality of Indian-made toys, making them more suitable for exports. Data from the commerce ministry shows India's imports of toys declined sharply to $73.9 million in FY2024-25 from $279.3 million in FY2019-20, while exports grew from $129.6 million to $169.5 million during the same period. As a result, the toy industry, which had a trade deficit of $150 million in FY2019-20, recorded a surplus of $95.5 million in FY2024-25. During this period, overall toy imports from China declined by 83 percent, from $235 million in FY2019-20 to 40.3 million in FY2024-25. However, even as government measures have restricted imports, data suggests that China is still the biggest exporter of toys to India with a 55 percent share in FY2024-25. Shabbir Gabajiwala, president of The All-India Toy Manufacturers' Association (TAITMA), told ThePrint, 'Earlier India was a dumping ground for low-quality toys from China but after introduction of BIS and QCO, imports of readymade toys from China have reduced substantially.' However, this might change. In the Finance Bill, 2025, the government lowered import duty from 70 percent to 20 percent on certain electronic toys with effect from 1 May, 2025. This is expected to run up the import bill in the current fiscal. Also Read: India's oldest toy store is a lens to view Delhi's history Pressure to cut costs & search for new markets With Trump's tariffs acting as barriers to exports to the US, Indian manufacturers are exploring new markets, but they want the government to negotiate a trade deal soon, and also introduce incentives and subsidies for the industry to make it more competitive. 'India needs to continue negotiating for favourable tariff structures, though this is easier said than done. Toys are a discretionary, low-margin, and price-sensitive category, and every link in the supply chain is under constant pressure to reduce costs,' said Funskool's Shabir. According to him, 'for every Rs 1 crore of revenue, the industry can generate employment for 8–10 people, most of them women'. 'Considering this, the government could explore targeted subsidies or incentives to make Indian toy manufacturing more cost-competitive globally,' he said. For Funskool, the largest toy manufacturing company in India, exports account for 70 percent of its business, 40 percent of which comes from the US. Other Indian toymakers, meanwhile, are now relying on markets other than the US for orders. Nidhi Agarwal, director of Afterskool Toys and Games that manufactures soft toys primarily for exports, told ThePrint, 'While the US is a big market for us, we can still make up the numbers from new markets like Australia that are showing interest.' 'Until restrictions on the US market are lifted, we are relying on markets like the UK, France, Switzerland, Denmark, and Australia that account for 45 percent of our exports,' said Kharbanda of Sunlord Group. Imports from China still finding way into India While the import of readymade toys from China has declined, manufacturers are still dependent on Chinese raw material, parts and machinery. 'Items like Felt which is a textile material used in stuffed toys are not readily available in India at competitive price, variety and quality,' said Agarwal of Afterskool Toys and Games. Due to limited options, toymakers have to depend on China for Felt, which offers competitive prices and varieties, she said, adding that the Indian toy industry lacks backward integration. 'We cannot manufacture each and every raw material used in toys ourselves.' For Funskool, dependency on China is limited to tools and machinery, since they source most of their raw materials from India. 'We are dependent on China for production-line tooling, injection moulds, automation machines, and emerging technology processes such as digital printing and prototyping,' said Funskool's Shabir. Adding, 'While India has capable toolrooms, they lack the competitiveness and quick turnaround times that are critical for the toy industry.' While some manufacturers are importing raw material and machinery from China, others are bypassing restrictions by importing semi-knocked down (SKD) and completely knocked down (CKD) parts. These are assembled in India without adding any value to the product. 'Importing CKD and SKD parts from China and assembling them in India to sell as a make-in-India product cannot be classified as manufacturing,' said Kartik Jain, owner of Noida-based Masoom Playmates, a manufacturer of electronic toys. Adding, 'We must not confuse assembling with manufacturing.' According to Shabir, Funskool is not involved in CKD operations as these are generally low-cost and the value addition from sub-assembly or final assembly is minimal. Jain of Masoom Playmates added that there is a need 'for minimum import price and enhancing inspection measures to bring down illegal imports from China'. (Edited by Amrtansh Arora) Also Read: Modi lauds toy hub Channapatna, but more than China this town is upset with rival at home


Time of India
22 minutes ago
- Time of India
Rs 5.6 lakh crore shock! Tata crown jewel hits worst patch since 2008 crisis. Time to panic or buy the fear?
TCS faces its steepest decline since 2008, losing ₹5.6 lakh crore in market value as FIIs exit IT stocks amid weak demand and AI disruption. While Nifty IT plunges 25% in 2025, mutual funds raise stakes, seeing value in TCS's reset valuations and strong dividend yield. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Shares of Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) have entered their darkest stretch since the 2008 global financial crisis. The crown jewel of the Tata Group has shed nearly ₹5.66 lakh crore in market value, tumbling 34% from its peak of ₹4,585.90, making 2025 its worst year since that fateful 55% crash 17 years ago. The stock is down 26% in 2025 alone, slashing its market capitalization to ₹10.93 lakh crore from a peak of ₹16.59 lakh rout comes amid a weak demand outlook, the disruptive impact of generative AI and a mixed Q1 scorecard, all of which have triggered a foreign investor exodus. FIIs, who once considered Indian IT their favorite trade, have slashed holdings in TCS from 12.35% in June 2024 to 11.48% in June 2025. Their broader selling has inflicted even deeper pain across the sector with the Nifty IT index plunging 25% so far this year, making it the worst-performing pocket of the market. Out of ₹95,600 crore pulled by FIIs from India in 2025 through July, more than half came from IT stocks funds, however, have played contrarian. Domestic institutions raised their TCS stake from 4.25% to 5.13% in one year and July data showed ₹400 crore of fresh MF meanwhile, have been reset sharply. TCS's trailing PE has halved from 41x to 20x with five-year profit CAGR at 8.5% and stock CAGR at 6%. Long-term data show IT has compounded 12.5% annually over two decades yet underperformed the Nifty in the past three to five funds see opportunity in the rubble. 'With IT's weight in the Nifty near decade lows and leading firms still generating ROICs above 40%, the sector may offer relative outperformance if valuations fall further,' DSP Mutual Fund said, calling IT, banks and other large caps a defensive bucket to ride out Read | FII selling crosses Rs 50,000 crore in IT stocks in 2025. Is tech dead money or just misunderstood? BNP Paribas pointed to dividends as an anchor. TCS's yield is now 3.7% versus its five-year average of 2.9% with the last five-year peak at 3.6%, the brokerage firm said, adding that margin expansion should resume post-FY26 once the BSNL deal ramps down. BNP has an Outperform rating with a ₹4,400 target price arguing that 'resilient fundamentals and attractive valuation make TCS our top pick in the current uncertain macroeconomic environment.'Still, the headlines are not all comforting. TCS's decision to cut 2% of its workforce has drawn scrutiny. 'TCS's move to cut staff may lead to execution slippages in the near term and higher attrition in the longer run. It reflects a weak demand environment,' Jefferies warned, adding that firms unable to capture AI-led productivity gains may have to resort to layoffs. The brokerage remains selective on IT, preferring Infosys and HCL Tech, which it sees as a stronger alternative to TCS.