logo
Oil rebounds on signs of strong US demand

Oil rebounds on signs of strong US demand

Business Times6 hours ago

[NEW YORK] Oil prices rose nearly 1 per cent on Wednesday, recovering from a sharp slide early this week, as data showed relatively strong US demand, and as investors assessed the stability of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel.
Brent crude futures settled 54 cents higher, or 0.8 per cent, at US$67.68 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) ended up 55 cents, or 0.9 per cent, at US$64.92, both paring some of the 13 per cent losses made earlier in the week.
After US President Donald Trump announced the ceasefire on Tuesday, Brent settled at its lowest since June 10 and WTI ended at its lowest since June 5 on the reduced Middle East supply risk.
Oil prices had rallied after June 13, when Israel launched a surprise attack on key Iranian military and nuclear facilities. Prices hit five-month highs after the US attacked Iran's nuclear facilities over the weekend.
'While concerns regarding Middle Eastern supply have diminished for now, they have not entirely disappeared, and there remains a stronger demand for immediate supply,' said ING analysts in a client note.
Prices found support from Wednesday's government data that showed US crude, petrol and distillate inventories fell last week.
BT in your inbox
Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox.
Sign Up
Sign Up
Crude inventories dropped by 5.8 million barrels, data showed, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 797,000-barrel draw.
Petrol stocks unexpectedly fell by 2.1 million barrels, compared with forecasts for a 381,000-barrel build as petrol supplied, a proxy for demand, rose to its highest since December 2021.
'We are looking at big draws across the board,' said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with the Price Futures Group. 'This type of report can refocus on US supply and demand, and less on geopolitics.'
A slew of US macroeconomic data released overnight, including data on consumer confidence, showed possibly weaker-than-expected economic growth in the world's largest oil consumer, bolstering expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this year.
Oil prices will likely consolidate at around US$65-70 per barrel levels as traders look to more US macroeconomic data this week and the Fed rate decision, said independent market analyst Tina Teng.
The market is betting that the Fed could cut US interest rates as soon as September, which would typically spur economic growth and demand for oil. REUTERS

Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Asia: Stocks down with eyes on Mideast, dollar hit by Trump Fed comment
Asia: Stocks down with eyes on Mideast, dollar hit by Trump Fed comment

Business Times

time26 minutes ago

  • Business Times

Asia: Stocks down with eyes on Mideast, dollar hit by Trump Fed comment

[HONG KONG] Most stocks fell on Thursday and oil rose as traders kept a nervous eye on the Iran-Israel ceasefire, while the dollar dropped after Donald Trump said he had a handful of candidates to succeed Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell, fuelling rate cut bets. Uncertainty over the US president's trade war was also keeping sentiment subdued, with most countries still not reaching deals with Washington to avert the reimposition of steep tariffs ahead of a July 9 deadline. With a shaky peace between Iran and Israel holding for now, Trump said he would hold nuclear talks with Tehran next week, even after insisting that US strikes had set its atomic programme back 'decades'. 'We may sign an agreement. I don't know,' he told reporters. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian had said Tuesday his country was willing to return to negotiations but that it would continue to 'assert its legitimate rights' to the peaceful use of nuclear energy. Crude prices, which tanked Monday and Tuesday after the ceasefire was announced, edged up for a second day, though gains were capped by the possibility that Opec and other key producers will lift output. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up 'While the Israel-Iran conflict is now de-escalating, we still believe that geopolitical risks remain where the ceasefire could easily fall apart,' wrote Kai Wang, Asia equity market strategist at Morningstar. 'While this possibility remains elevated, we do not believe that there would be a restriction on oil supply even under a re-escalating scenario. Given that oil has retreated to preconflict price levels, we believe that any future increase in oil price is likely to be short-lived.' Equity markets were mostly down, with Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Singapore, Seoul, Jakarta and Wellington in the red but Tokyo and Taipei in positive territory. That came after a tepid lead from Wall Street, where the Nasdaq was the standout after chip titan Nvidia shot up more than four per cent to a record high, giving it a market valuation of around US$3.76 trillion. That makes it more valuable than Microsoft, Apple and other tech giants. The dollar held losses after Trump's latest salvo against Powell and suggestion that he was already lining up his replacement. Since returning to the White House the president has constantly hit out at the Fed boss for not cutting rates, questioning his intelligence and stoking worries about the bank's independence. 'I know within three or four people who I'm going to pick,' he told reporters after a Nato summit. 'I mean he goes out pretty soon fortunately because I think he's terrible,' Trump said of Powell, whose term ends in May next year. Trump added that Powell was 'average mentally' and had 'low IQ for what he does'. The Wall Street Journal reported that the Republican was considering making an announcement in September or October, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, economic adviser Kevin Hassett and former Fed governor Kevin Warsh among the contenders. Trump's remarks came days after Powell told lawmakers the bank needed to see the impact of the president's tariffs on the economy before making a move. 'Trump's nomination will amp up the pressure, to the point where we could have a shadow Fed chair before Powell steps down in May next year,' said National Australia Bank's Rodrigo Catril. 'We think it's fair to suggest that the pressure on Powell to cut rates will increase, and that's adding to selling pressure on the dollar.' AFP

South Korea's Lee Jae Myung urges approval of US$22.5 billion extra budget
South Korea's Lee Jae Myung urges approval of US$22.5 billion extra budget

CNA

timean hour ago

  • CNA

South Korea's Lee Jae Myung urges approval of US$22.5 billion extra budget

SEOUL: South Korea's President Lee Jae Myung on Thursday (Jun 26) called on parliament to approve a US$22.5 billion supplementary budget aimed at reviving the economy, in his first address to MPs since taking office. Lee was elected in a snap vote this month following the impeachment of his predecessor, Yoon Suk Yeol, over his disastrous martial law declaration in December. The new president's appeal comes as Asia's fourth-largest economy – heavily reliant on exports – reels from steep tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump. In April, the United States slapped a 25 per cent tariff on South Korean goods as part of Trump's sweeping global trade measures. The rates were later put on a 90-day hold, giving both sides until July to reach a deal. "Timing is everything when it comes to the economy, and now is the time to act," Lee told lawmakers in the main chamber of parliament. "To overcome the downturn and restore livelihoods, we have drafted a supplementary budget totalling 30.5 trillion won," he said, adding the package was designed for swift implementation. More than 40 per cent of the spending would go towards universal consumption coupons, according to the proposal, with individuals eligible for up to 520,000 won (US$380) each. He described the measure as "the minimum" his government could do to breathe life into the economy. Economic growth remained below 1 per cent for four consecutive quarters, before posting negative growth in the first quarter of this year, Lee said. Private consumption and government spending also contracted in the first quarter, he added. Consumer prices rose to 1.9 per cent in May from the year before, official data showed. Lee's request is widely expected to pass, as his centre-left Democratic Party commands a majority in the 300-seat legislature. On North Korea, he reaffirmed his campaign pledge to pursue dialogue with Pyongyang without preconditions, saying peace on the Korean peninsula was key to economic growth. "I will create a virtuous cycle where peace drives economic growth, which in turn further strengthens peace," he said. Lee's tenure begins as South Korea finds itself in the middle of a growing superpower standoff between the United States, its traditional security guarantor, and China, its largest trade partner.

Dollar slips on Fed credibility concerns, euro tops $1.1700
Dollar slips on Fed credibility concerns, euro tops $1.1700

CNA

timean hour ago

  • CNA

Dollar slips on Fed credibility concerns, euro tops $1.1700

SYDNEY : The dollar slipped to multi-year lows against the euro and Swiss franc on Thursday as concerns about the future independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve undermined faith in the soundness of the country's monetary policy. According to a Wall Street Journal report, U.S. President Donald Trump had toyed with the idea of selecting and announcing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's replacement by September or October, aiming to undermine his position. "Markets are likely to bristle at any early move to name Powell's successor, particularly if the decision appears politically motivated," said Kieran Williams, head of Asia FX at InTouch Capital Markets. "The move would raise questions about the potential erosion of Fed independence and potentially weaken credibility," he added. "If this was the case it could recalibrate rate expectations, trigger reassessment of dollar positioning." Trump on Wednesday called Powell "terrible" for not lowering interest rates sharply, while the Fed Chair was telling the Senate that policy had to be cautious as the President's tariff plans were a risk to inflation. Markets have nudged up the chance of a rate cut at the Fed's next meeting in July to 25 per cent, from just 12 per cent a week ago, and are pricing in 64 basis points of cuts by year-end, up from around 46 basis points last Friday. "While this stands to be the latest hammer blow to the dollar delivered by the hands of the White House, I do expect it to gain some support in the coming sessions from month-end and quarter-end rebalancing flows," said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG. NOT SO EXCEPTIONAL For now, though, the dollar was under broad pressure as the euro gained 0.4 per cent to $1.1710, its highest since September 2021. The break of resistance at $1.1692 opened the way to the next chart target up at $1.1909. Sterling rose 0.3 per cent to $1.3723, its highest since January 2022, while the dollar was at its lowest in more than a decade on the Swiss franc at 0.8030. The franc also struck a record peak on the yen around 180.55. The dollar lost 0.4 per cent on the yen to 144.62, while the dollar index sank to its lowest since early 2022 at 97.401. Trump's chaotic tariff policies are also coming back into focus as the clock ticks down to his July 9 deadline for trade deals. JPMorgan on Wednesday warned the hit from tariffs would slow U.S. economic growth and lift inflation, resulting in a 40 per cent chance of a recession. "The risk of additional negative shocks is elevated, and we expect U.S. tariff rates to move higher," JPMorgan analysts wrote in their report. "The upshot of these developments is that our baseline scenario incorporates the end of a phase of U.S. exceptionalism." The ending of "exceptionalism" has been a major theme in the dollar's decline in recent months, as investors question its dominant reserve currency status and as the main safe haven among currencies. The euro has been a big beneficiary, with investors also hoping that massive new investment in European defence and infrastructure will bolster economic growth across the continent.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store