‘Ballerina' targets $35 million opening in box-office clash with ‘Lilo & Stitch'
This weekend sees the debut of just one major new film: Lionsgate's From the World of John Wick: Ballerina, which is set to claim the top spot at the box office. The spinoff, starring Ana de Armas (and with franchise star Keanu Reeves making a brief appearance) is projected to open with strong numbers — with estimates ranging from $35 million to $40 million — as it battles Disney's Lilo & Stitch for first place.
Directed by Len Wiseman, the action-packed film earned approximately $4 million during previews, according to Deadline, and its performance is likely to benefit from the increasing popularity of the John Wick series. Early reviews have been positive, with the movie holding a 72 percent "fresh" rating on Rotten Tomatoes based on 145 reviews and an impressive audience score of 93 percent. Ballerina is set between the events of John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum and John Wick: Chapter 4, following de Armas' character, Eve Macarro — a dancer who transforms into an assassin and seeks revenge for her father's death.
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Elsewhere, Wes Anderson's The Phoenician Scheme, distributed by Focus Features, expands to 1,500 theaters across North America after a limited release last weekend. The quirky, star-studded comedy is expected to land in fourth place, trailing Lilo & Stitch and Paramount's Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning. Meanwhile, Sony's Karate Kid: Legends rounds out the weekend's top five.
Gold Derby readers predict that Ballerina will win the June 6-8 weekend with between $25 million and $50 million domestically. Lilo & Stitch is the runner-up selection of our oddsmakers.
NEW RELEASES
Director: Len Wiseman Distributor: Lionsgate An assassin trained in the traditions of the Ruska Roma organization sets out to seek revenge after her father's death. The action thriller, starring Ana de Armas, Anjelica Huston, and Gabriel Byrne (with a cameo by Keanu Reeves), has a running time of two hours, five minutes, and is rated R. Ballerina is certified "fresh" with a 72 percent score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes; "mixed" reviews compiled by Metacritic resulted in an overall score of 59 percent.
BOX-OFFICE PREDICTIONS
Ballerina is poised to pirouette its way to the top of the box office with an estimated opening of $35 million to $40 million. This would mark the third-best debut in the franchise, surpassing John Wick's $14 million in 2014 and John Wick: Chapter 2's $30.4 million in 2017. However, it falls short of overtaking John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum (2019) and John Wick: Chapter 4 (2023), which opened to $56.8 million and $73.8 million, respectively.
Meanwhile, Lilo & Stitch, which recently passed the $300 million milestone, is expected to hold steady in second place with earnings between $30 million and $35 million. In third place, Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning is projected to add $15 million to its total. The Phoenician Scheme is expected to move up to fourth place with $9 million, while Karate Kid: Legends will round out the top five with an estimated $8 million in its second week.
Here are Gold Derby's predictions box-office rankings for the top five:
1. Ballerina 2. Lilo & Stitch 3. Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning 4. The Phoenician Scheme 5. Karate Kid: Legends
Do you agree or disagree with those rankings? Make your predictions right now — it's fun and easy! Join the box-office discussion in our forums.
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