Will Trump's tariff war push India closer to Russia and China?

Mint

2 days ago

Trump 2.0 was expected to be good for India. But after early promise, ties have unexpectedly soured. Mint examines the sudden reversal, what India should do next, and whether recent developments could strengthen the Russia-India-China (RIC) axis.
1. Has the India-US relationship hit a low?
Yes. On 27 June, US President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on goods imported from India, along with an unspecified penalty for New Delhi's continued defence and energy trade with Russia. His rhetoric stung even more than the tariffs. Trump accused India of having some of the 'highest tariffs in the world" and 'the most strenuous and obnoxious non-monetary trade barriers." The next day, he escalated further, saying that Russia and India 'can take their dead economies down together."
Simultaneously, Trump is cosying up to Pakistan, finalizing a trade deal with Islamabad last week.
2. What triggered Trump's anger?
Experts point to several factors.
India's reluctance to open up its agriculture sector during trade talks has frustrated Trump. Some believe that the tariff hike may be a pressure tactic to force broader market access.
His ire over India's energy and defence ties with Russia is also strategic: it's seen as part of a larger bid to pressure President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine. Trump, some believe, now realizes he was outplayed by Putin.
He is also suspicious of India's growing alignment with BRICS, which he views as an anti-Western bloc. He fears BRICS could start a common currency that could rival or replace the US dollar as the standard currency.
Another, more personal factor: India did not credit Trump for helping de-escalate the brief India-Pakistan conflict earlier this year. Pakistan, in contrast, publicly acknowledged his role. Trump is reportedly miffed that India didn't nominate him for the Nobel Peace Prize.
3. How has India reacted?
Though caught off guard by the sudden downturn in the bonhomie, India's response has been restrained. The government has said it will protect national interests while continuing bilateral trade negotiations in good faith.
The Ministry of External Affairs emphasized that the India-US partnership is rooted in shared interests, democratic values, and strong people-to-people ties—and has weathered turbulence in the past.
4. Will Trump's actions push India close to the Russia-China axis?
That would require a fundamental shift in India's foreign policy, but some experts don't rule it out. Trump has once again unsettled a friend (India) while courting an adversary (Pakistan), which has hit a nerve in New Delhi.
Last week, China publicly backed a Russian proposal to revive the RIC trilateral mechanism, calling it crucial for regional and global stability.
5. Could a thaw in India-China ties help?
Possibly. After the Galwan Valley clashes in 2020, India-China relations froze. But recent months have seen attempts at normalization, including ministerial visits and a meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping at the BRICS summit in October 2024.
6. What should India do?
Most foreign policy experts advise caution. India's ties with the US extend beyond Trump's presidency and should not be derailed by short-term volatility, they say.
While a stable relationship with China is welcome, they caution that it remains a strategic rival. India, they add, must work to resolve trade irritants and ensure a mutually beneficial agreement with the US.
It should reiterate its commitment to a multi-aligned foreign policy and emphasize its long-standing ties with Russia, even as Moscow's share in defence supplies has declined in recent years.