S&P 500 could tumble as low as 3,700 even in a 'mild recession,' says Wolfe Research
The S & P 500 could drop as low as 3,700 even in a mild recession, according to Wolfe Research. Chris Senyek, the firm's chief investment strategist, said the S & P 500 could fall to between 3,700 and 4,100 in an economic slowdown. That represents declines of 37% and 30% for the broader index, respectively, from the start of the year. The S & P 500 was last down more than 7% this year, and is 11% below its February all-time high. The S & P 500 touched a bear market earlier this month, following the initial shock of Trump's April 2 tariff decree. It has since been stuck in a trading range as investors await clarity on what trade agreements the White House can reach with the rest of the world, namely with key trading partners such as China. One technical strategist identified 5,500 as key resistance for the S & P 500. It was last hovering below that level, at 5,483. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 in 2025. Senyek worries there's significant stock market downside ahead if the U.S. heads for a recession, especially if corporate earnings start to weaken because of high tariff or uncertain policy. The strategist worries that S & P 500 earnings per share estimates for 2025 could fall 15%, to $225 from the currently estimated $266. That would show up not not only in a sour stock market but in an ecoonomic contraction as well. "If uncertainty caused by tariff policy were to push the U.S. economy into recession in 2025, we'd expect SPX EPS to fall at least 15% from current levels in line with the median EPS peak to trough over the past four recessions, of 16.7%," Senyek wrote Thursday. "This would imply SPX EPS in a mild recessionary scenario falling to ~$225, which would imply -1% negative real Y/Y GDP growth." "At the same time, P/Es would compress from today's [next 12 months] S & P 500 P/E of 19.4x," Senyek continued. "If we apply the 15Y or 10Y average P/E of 16.6x or 18.4x to recessionary type EPS of $225, this implies a ~3,700 to 4,100 level for the S & P 500 in a mild recession." Thus far, Wall Street has had a decent start to the first quarter earnings season. Of the 157 S & P 500 companies that have reported, 76% have beaten expectations. What's more, the blended growth rate — which incorporates analyst estimates and results from corporations that have already reported — stands at 8%, an improvement from the 7.2% analysts were expecting on March 31, according to FactSet senior earnings analyst John Butters. Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange! Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE , an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today's dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12. Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles, and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You'll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!
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