Analysis-Videogame publishers rush to seize fall launch window after 'GTA VI' delay

Yahoo

12-05-2025

By Zaheer Kachwala
(Reuters) -Days after Take-Two Interactive delayed the launch of "Grand Theft Auto VI" to May next year, rival publishers are using that opportunity to lock in release dates for their games to avoid a direct clash with one of the industry's most anticipated titles.
Analysts and industry executives told Reuters they expect a wave of announcements for the fall, as the absence of Take-Two-owned Rockstar Games' potential blockbuster from this year's lineup creates breathing room for other titles.
"Publishers had delayed the announcement of the release dates of their games. Releasing after or even just before GTA VI would diminish their sales," said Obbe Vermeij, former technical director at Rockstar Games. "Expect a number of announcements in the coming months of games that will now target fall release dates."
Electronic Arts was the first to act last week, announcing four days after the "GTA" delay that it would release its new "Battlefield" title this fiscal year, which ends in March 2026. Take-Two is also planning to use that window to launch its other game, "Mafia: The Old Country."
Other titles could also benefit, including Techland's "Dying Light: The Beast" and Embracer's "Killing Floor 3," which have yet to lock in launch dates.
The window from September to early December is a golden stretch for the gaming industry, buoyed by public holidays and a year-end shopping rush. But not many have the capacity to tap that opportunity for their new releases.
Long development cycles for major titles - some of which can stretch from five to seven years - mean most big games cannot be rescheduled at short notice.
Instead, the period may serve as a sweet spot for expansion packs, remastered titles and smaller studios, particularly for developers with games already nearing completion, analysts said.
BIG WINNERS
For established publishers like EA and Activision, the delay could come as a boon. Competing directly with a title as massive as "GTA VI" could have dented sales of "Battlefield".
EA's strategic timing with "Battlefield" boosted its shares as investors cheered the return of the popular first-person shooter franchise. The company's CEO, Andrew Wilson, was not shy about the opportunity on a post-earnings call earlier this month. The launch window is "clearer than it was before," he said.
Joost van Dreunen, games professor at NYU's Stern School of Business, expects EA to sell 4 million to 5 million units of the new "Battlefield" by the end of fiscal year 2026, but believes it would have sold 3 million to 4 million units if "GTA VI" had not been delayed.
EA's annual releases such as the "FC" soccer franchise and "Madden NFL" will also have less competition in the period.
"It does create opportunity for them to maybe further monetize their games that have a live ops component to it, whether it's the sports games or things like Apex Legends," said Chris Hewish, strategy chief at gaming fintech firm Xsolla and former studio head at VR game developer Survios.
But a boost in sales for the publishers rescheduling their titles for fall 2025 is not guaranteed, as an increase in the number of launches would intensify competition at a time when consumers tighten budgets and get picky with buying new games.
The delay of "GTA VI" has also raised broader questions about the industry's growth prospects for 2025.
The game was expected to be a sales juggernaut, drawing in billions within weeks and driving console sales. And its delay comes at a time when prices of popular consoles such as Microsoft's Xbox and Sony's PlayStation have already gone up in response to the hefty tariffs the U.S. has imposed on major manufacturing hubs including Japan, China and Vietnam.
Sales of the consoles were declining already, and the price hikes could worsen that.
Still, there have been some signs that gaming was proving resilient amid the economic uncertainty. Both Roblox and EA issued forecasts that were above Wall Street estimates, and some analysts said that titles stepping in for "GTA VI" in the fall could help drive the industry's growth.
"There is an opportunity for that growth to be replaced by other titles ... it creates space for other games to step in," Hewish said.