Here are the 3 big things we're watching in the market in the week ahead

CNBC

4 days ago

Earnings season is winding down, and the market has held up relatively well through the onslaught of quarterly results and the implementation of tariffs. Wall Street's next test this week: Inflation data. The pair of reports measuring price pressures in the U.S. economy carries implications for the Federal Reserve's next interest rate move and likely the stock market's. It's too soon for President Donald Trump 's newest tariff rates to show up in the numbers just yet, but we'll be watching for any inflation signs from the levies already in place. The S & P 500 is coming off a positive week, its third in the past four, and sits just shy of a fresh record-closing high. The Nasdaq ended last week at a record. There are a few other economic reports on this week's schedule. Within the portfolio, it's mostly quiet on the earnings front — save for our newest holding. Here's a closer look at what we're watching for. 1. Inflation data: The consumer price index (CPI) and the wholesale inflation gauge, known as the producer price index (PPI), are slated to be released Tuesday and Thursday morning, respectively. The overarching theme for both inflation releases: What do they mean for the Fed rate policy at its upcoming September meeting and beyond? The CPI and PPI arrive after a weak July jobs report — and the accompanying downward revisions to the prior two-month totals — that caused investors to dramatically reconsider the health of the U.S. labor market. Nurturing maximum employment is one part of the Fed's dual mandate; fostering price stability is the other. Traders went from betting the Fed will keep rates steady again in September — thanks to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell throwing cold water on the idea at the Fed's July meeting — to overwhelmingly pricing in a quarter-point cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Now comes the CPI and PPI, which shine a light on the price-stability piece of the Fed's mandate and, in particular, the impact that Trump's tariffs are having on the rate of inflation. In the June CPI report, inflation picked up to 2.7% overall and 2.9%, when excluding the more volatile food and energy prices, from the May rates of 2.4% and 2.8%, respectively. Tariff-sensitive categories like furniture and apparel showed increases in the June CPI, and Wall Street will once again look closely at those areas in the July data. If inflation comes in really hot, will the market recalibrate its expectations for September once again? "We see the biggest risk to markets in the [second half of the year] from a reacceleration in both goods and service inflation, leading the Fed to remain on hold and putting upward pressure on interest rates," strategists at Wolfe Research said in a note to clients Friday. Economists expect the July CPI to show a 0.2% increase on a monthly basis and a 2.8% increase annually, according to Dow Jones. Excluding food and energy, the so-called core CPI is projected to rise 0.3% month over month and 3.1% on a 12-month basis; that would be an acceleration from 0.2% and 2.9%, respectively, in June. For the PPI, which is seen as a leading indicator for the CPI because it measures what companies pay for their own inputs like steel, the consensus is for a 0.2% monthly gain after being flat in June, according to Dow Jones. On a core basis, PPI is expected up 0.3% month over month. Core PPI also was flat in June. Central bankers say the reason they haven't lowered rates yet this year is uncertainty around the inflationary impact of the tariffs. While it's good to get another month's worth of data, the CPI and PPI for July won't answer that question entirely, in part because tariff levels are still evolving, and in part because businesses that may eventually raise prices are still working through inventory accumulated before duty rates went up. However, at least for Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, he told CNBC last week that he's getting more comfortable with the idea of cutting rates without knowing the full effect of tariffs. Kashkari is an alternate member of the Fed's policymaking arm this year and a voting member in 2026, so his comments are notable. At the July meeting, two central bankers did vote for a cut. "There's a bunch of data that I know and that I've got confidence in, and there's data that I don't know and we're not going to know for a while," Kashkari said Wednesday on "Squawk Box." "The data that I think we know is that the economy is slowing. Housing services inflation is gently declining. Non-housing services inflation is coming down. Wage growth is coming down. We've seen the jobs number, and consumer spending cooling. All of that suggests the real underlying economy is slowing." He continued, "The part I don't have confidence in yet is, what are the ultimate effects of tariffs going to be on inflation? And what I'm realizing is we may not know the answer to that for quarters, or a year or more. That tells me, as one policymaker, that I need to start leaning more on the data I've got confidence in. The economy is slowing, and that means in the near term, it may become appropriate to start adjusting the federal funds rate." 2. Other data: While the CPI and PPI are the biggest data points of the week, there are a few other releases that the market will be watching due to the heightened focus on the health of the economy post-jobs report. On Thursday morning, we'll get the weekly initial jobless claims report — a measure of both first-time unemployment insurance filings, which can be used to gauge layoff activity among employers, and so-called continuing claims, which offer insights into how easily people who lose their jobs can find a new gig. On Friday, the July retail sales report is out, courtesy of the Commerce Department, offering a look at the level of consumer spending and where people spent their money. Amazon' s Prime Day was held in July, so a measure of online spending in the report will likely be influenced by that. Also on Friday, the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment survey for the month of August will be out. After some dour readings as Trump's tariff rhetoric ramped up earlier this year, the sentiment releases have stabilized. The inflation expectations component of the survey — also closely watched — tumbled to below pre-tariff levels in July . 3. Earnings: After a busy stretch of earnings, Cisco Systems is the lone Club name to report quarterly results in the week ahead. It's the first time we'll hear from the networking and security provider since it joined the portfolio on July 17. For its fiscal 2025 fourth quarter, Wall Street expects Cisco to report revenue of $14.62 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of 98 cents, according to estimates compiled by LSEG. Beyond the headline numbers, investors will be keyed into Cisco's orders and commentary around its AI products, along with its guidance for fiscal 2026. Analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a recent note to clients that expectations are for mid-single-digit order growth, "which we expect will continue to drive momentum in the stock." Last quarter, Cisco said it booked more than $600 million in AI infrastructure orders from "webscale" customers, its term for large data center operators often called hyperscalers, such as Club names Amazon and Microsoft . A big part of our thesis is Cisco continuing to make inroads into this lucrative market, so we'll be paying close attention to the latest order figure. As for fiscal 2026 revenue overall, Cisco's initial guidance is likely to come in conservative, "as the environment remains dynamic," Morgan Stanley argued. The current Wall Street consensus for Cisco's fiscal 2026 implies roughly 5% revenue growth on an annual basis, according to FactSet. Week ahead Monday, Aug. 11 Before the bell: monday.com Ltd. (MNDY), Village Farms International (VFF), Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV), MAG Silver Corp. (MAG), Rumble (RUM), WW International, Inc. (WW), Agenus Inc (AGEN), United States Cellular (USM), Kymera Therapeutics (KYMR), Dole (DOLE), Ballard Power Systems (BLDP), EuroDry (EDRY), Barrick Mining Corporation (B) After the bell: BigBear.ai (BBAI), Oklo (OKLO), AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC), AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), Archer Aviation (ACHR), PennantPark Investment Corp. (PNNT) Tuesday, Aug. 12 July consumer price index at 8:30 a.m. ET Before the bell: Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL), Sea Limited (SE), Pony AI Inc. (PONY), Liquidia Technologies, Inc. (LQDA), On Holding AG (ONON), DarioHealth Corp. (DRIO), Paysafe Group Holdings Limited (PSFE), Autolus Therapeutics plc (AUTL), Bitcoin Depot (BTM), Anavex Life Sciences (AVXL), Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH), Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) After the bell: CoreWeave (CRWV), Rigetti Computing (RGTI), Cava Group (CAVA), Rekor Systems, Inc. (REKR), Zevra Therapeutics (ZVRA), DoubleDown Interactive (DDI), H & R Block (HRB) Wednesday, Aug. 13 Before the bell: Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (ARCO), Brinker International, Inc. (EAT), Marex Group Plc (MRX), Innoviz Technologies (INVZ), Perspective Therapeutics, Inc. (CATX), Cae Inc (CAE), Elbit Systems (ESLT) After the bell: Cisco Systems (CSCO), Equinox Gold Corp. (EQX), Avino Silver & Gold Mines (ASM), Electrovaya (ELVA), Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB), SurgePays (SURG), Alvotech (ALVO), Fidelis Insurance Holdings Limited (FIHL) Thursday, Aug. 14 July producer price index at 8:30 a.m. ET Before the bell: First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG), Deere & Company (DE), JD.com, Inc. (JD), Amcor plc (AMCR), Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP), AEBI SCHMIDT GP (AEBI), Applied Industrial Technologies (AIT), Birkenstock Holding (BIRK), Cellebrite (CLBT) After the bell: Applied Materials (AMAT), Nu Holdings (NU), KULR Technology Group (KULR), Nano Nuclear Energy (NNE), SanDisk (SNDK), Pioneer Power Solutions (PPSI) Friday, Aug. 15 Retail sales at 8:30 a.m. ET The Fed's data on industrial production and capacity utilization at 9:15 a.m. ET University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey at 10 a.m. ET Before the bell: Flowers Foods (FLO) (Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long CSCO, AMZN and MSFT. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.