Which European economy stands to suffer the most from US tariffs?

Yahoo

6 days ago

Germany and Ireland are standing out as the two most exposed EU economies threatened by higher US tariffs, as Brussels works towards a trade deal with Washington, amid reports that pharmaceutical tariffs could be as high as 200%.
When US President Donald Trump imposed a new 25% tariff on auto imports and car parts in April, Germany was identified as the EU country with the most to lose. Brussels-based think tank Bruegel's estimation at the time was that tariffs could cost 0.4% of the country's GDP in the long term.
While awaiting a new EU-US trade deal, other details emerge that could put Ireland, Denmark, and Belgium, as well as other countries, in the crosshairs should Washington target the pharmaceutical sector next.
The overall impact on the European economy will depend on the actual tariff rate the US settles on and the EU's response, but the blow will not be spread evenly.
According to Bruegel, the EU economy is facing significant but manageable macroeconomic consequences.
They estimated in a report in April that, regarding the possible scenarios, the damage could be approximately 0.3% of the EU's GDP, depending on the outcome of the negotiations. This compares to the 1.1% real GDP growth expected in the bloc in 2025, by the European Commission's Spring Forecast.
Trade with the US is significant. In 2024, the United States was the largest partner for EU exports of goods, making up 20.6% of all EU goods exports outside the bloc.
Pharmaceuticals account for 15% of the EU's goods exports to the US. They are followed by the auto sector.
Until there is more clarification on potential US tariffs on the pharma sector's products, 'the auto sector seems to be the most vulnerable to US tariffs as there doesn't seem to be any major exemptions planned,' said Savary. The industry has been slapped with a 25% tariff in April.
'Tariffs alone could shave around 8% off total EU trade volumes over the next five years,' said Rory Fennessy, Senior Economist at Oxford Economics, in a recent report.
Countries with the highest value in goods exports to the US, facing the biggest threat to their economies, include Germany, Ireland, Italy, France and the Netherlands.
The German economy relies heavily on exports, boosted by the country's motor vehicle sector. Nearly one-quarter (22.7%) of the total German exports are heading to the US.
'Germany stands out as the major European economy likely to be hit hardest by US tariffs, and we expect GDP growth to slump in the second and third quarters," Andrew Hunter, Associate Director and Senior Economist at Moody's Ratings, said to Euronews Business.
Hunter also added that smaller economies, including Austria and others in central and eastern Europe, 'which are heavily integrated into Germany's industrial supply chains, will also be hit hard'.
According to Bruegel, after 2025, the long-term negative impact of the tariffs could be around 0.4% of the GDP in Germany, once 'the effect has fully built up and initial short-term effects dissipated,' said Niclas Frederic Poitiers, Research Fellow at Bruegel. 'For France, the average effect would be around 0.25% of GDP.'
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Uncertainty could lead to lost investments and jobs across the entire 27-member bloc. Hunter said that, 'even for those countries where direct exposure to US exports is relatively limited, such as France or Spain, growth is still likely to be weighed down by global weakness and uncertainty.
Regarding long-term impacts, Ireland stands out as one of the most affected countries, as more than half of its goods exports (53.7%) are directed towards the US market.
A lot depends on whether the pharmaceutical sector will be hit with tariffs. If so, 'Ireland will be the EU economy most at risk from these tariffs,' said Mathieu Savary, chief strategist for our European Investment Strategy at BCA Research.
The research-based pharmaceutical industry is a key asset of the European economy. It is one of Europe's top-performing high-technology sectors.
It contributed €311 billion in gross value added (GVA) and 2.3 million jobs directly and indirectly to the European Union's economy in 2022, according to a recent study by PWC.
And the US market is crucial to the European pharma sector. According to the European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations, in 2021, North America accounted for 49.1% of world pharmaceutical sales compared with 23.4% for Europe.
And more than one-third of EU pharma exports are going to the US.
If the pharma sector is hit by a 25% tariff, as it is expected by Moody's in the coming months, 'most exposed would be a number of smaller European economies like Denmark, Belgium, Slovenia and Ireland, which are generally where we think the risks of recession in Europe are highest,' Hunter said.
BCA Research's chief strategist added that in this case, 'Ireland is particularly exposed to this risk,' citing that exports to the US represent 18% of Ireland's GDP, and pharma exports represent nearly 55% of Irish exports. According to BCA, the impact 'could curtail 4% to 5% to growth over time'.
Bruegel estimated that Ireland's cumulative real GDP loss could be 3% by 2028.
The think tank also singled out the country as the most vulnerable regarding the impact of the US tariffs on employment.
Regarding how vulnerable a country is to job losses in light of US tariffs, Bruegel said that Italy was the second most-exposed country, with a high exposure in transport equipment and a high level of exposed employment in fashion and car manufacturing. Italy would also have high exposure in pharmaceuticals.
Trump said on Tuesday that pharmaceutical products imported to the US are facing a 200% tariff, without disclosing any further details.
According to BCA's Savary, it is not likely, because 'that would massively increase the cost of healthcare for US consumers, which is already a major issue for voters.'
He sees it as a 'strong message to foreign pharma companies to adjust their pricing down and invest into producing their drugs in the US.' Savary expects 'that FDIs into the US and drug prices reduction announcements will be the end result of these talks and threats'.
'The pressure is now on for drug companies to expand US production facilities so they are effectively on the doorstep of American customers,' said Dan Coatsworth, investment analyst at AJ Bell.