Gold price prediction: What's the gold rate outlook for August 18, 2025 week
Gold prices slipped last week as easing safe-haven demand and shifting geopolitical dynamics pressured the metal, despite intermittent support from dovish US rate expectations and a weaker dollar.
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An initial rally triggered by confusion over US tariffs on Swiss gold faded after the White House clarified the report was inaccurate. Optimism around a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine also limited gold's appeal, as Presidents Trump and Putin met in Alaska to explore peace proposals, including potential land concessions by Russia.
The meeting, though pivotal, left markets with more questions than answers, particularly regarding sanctions relief and the feasibility of the proposed deal.
Meanwhile, US-China trade tensions cooled with a 90-day tariff truce extension and President Trump's conditional green light for Nvidia chip sales to China. On the economic front, softer-than-expected US CPI data fueled dovish Fed expectations, with the CME Fed-Watch Tool showing nearly 90% odds of a 25-bps rate cut in September, though Treasury Secretary Bessent floated the possibility of a larger 50-bps move.
However, stronger-than-expected PPI data and other mixed data points added uncertainty, and the rate cut probability dipped back to ~80%. Physical gold demand in Asia remained subdued amidst high prices.
Investors now await preliminary US PMI data, Fed Chair Powell's speech, and updates from the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium for policy signals. Meanwhile, markets remain fixated on further clarity from the Alaska summit and Trump's upcoming meetings with Ukrainian President Zelensky and European leaders regarding a possible peace deal.
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It is a fairly light week in terms of data points, however volatility could be high as it's an event pack week.
Any comments in the Jackson Hole symposium from Fed chair Powell regarding a possibility of a change in interest rate could show support to President Trump administration ideology and support bullion. On the other hand, the upcoming meeting between the US and Ukrainian leaders could weigh on gold prices if President Trump is able to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
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