India and Pakistan could come to blows over Kashmir
While Indian police blamed militants fighting Indian rule, a group calling itself the 'Resistance Front' claimed responsibility on social media, citing an influx of 85,000 settlers. But former Indian military and intelligence officials accused Pakistan's armed forces of masterminding the assault and called for a strong and swift response. After the 2019 attack, which killed 40 Indian policemen, India carried out an air strike on Pakistan 12 days later. Pakistan's air force struck back the next day and as Indian jets responded, one crashed in Pakistani territory, although the pilot survived and was quickly returned to India.
The Pahalgam attack, which coincided with a visit to India by America's vice-president, J.D. Vance, threatens to trigger another military confrontation between India and Pakistan, which both have nuclear weapons and have fought two wars, plus one more limited conflict, over Kashmir since their independence in 1947. Mr Vance, who is visiting cultural sites in northern India (several hundred miles away), offered his condolences to the victims of what he called a 'devastating terrorist attack'. President Donald Trump said America 'stands strong with India against terrorism'.
India's prime minister, Narendra Modi, who is visiting Saudi Arabia, vowed to bring the perpetrators to justice. 'They will not be spared!' he posted on X. 'Our resolve to fight terrorism is unshakable.' Amit Shah, the Indian home minister, rushed to Kashmir to hold a security meeting. 'This attack on our visitors is an abomination,' said Omar Abdullah, the region's top elected official. It was 'much larger than anything we've seen directed at civilians in recent years.' Indian media reports said two of the dead were foreigners of Indian origin but did not give their nationalities.
The attack is a blow to the Indian government's claims to have stabilised Kashmir. Tens of thousands of people have been killed there since the start of an anti-Indian insurgency in 1989. But in recent years militant violence appeared to have subsided. India's government credited that to its decision to revoke Kashmir's semi-autonomous status in 2019, splitting what had been an Indian state into two federally administered territories: Jammu & Kashmir, and Ladakh.
That allowed tens of thousands of outsiders to get jobs and buy land in the region. Tourist numbers increased. But it also led to a deterioration of ties with Pakistan. In a speech this month Pakistan's army chief, General Asim Munir, described Kashmir as 'our jugular vein'. He continued: 'We will not forget it. And we will not leave our Kashmiri brethren in their heroic struggle.'
Former Indian military and security officials suggested that the perpetrators had wanted to draw international attention to Kashmir by planning the attack to coincide with Mr Vance's visit to India and Mr Modi's to Saudi Arabia. They also suggested that the attack was designed to undermine Kashmir's tourist industry, as it came a few weeks before a big Hindu pilgrimage. The last deadly incident in the region was in June 2024 when nine people died after a militant attack caused a bus carrying Hindu pilgrims to plunge into a gorge. India's government then launched a major operation to find the perpetrators and pledged to strengthen security. This time, expect public calls for much firmer action.
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