US CPC sees 74% chance of ENSO Neutral conditions through June-August
(Reuters) -El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions are expected to be favored through the Northern Hemisphere in summer 2025 (74% chance during June-August), the United States' Climate Prediction Center said on Thursday.
Chances of ENSO neutral conditions exceed 50% through August-October 2025, it added.
WHY IT'S IMPORTANT
La Niña is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climatic cycle, which affects water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
La Niña results in cooler water temperatures, increasing the chances of floods and droughts, which can impact crops. When ENSO is neutral, water temperatures stay around the average level, leading to more stable weather and potentially better crop yields.
CONTEXT
The sugar production estimate for the ongoing 2024/25 season has been revised down to 28 million tons due to the adverse impacts of El Niño and limited groundwater resources for irrigation, a report issued on May 05 by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service post in New Delhi showed.
KEY QUOTES
"Neutral ENSO really has no usual conditions associated with it as a neutral ENSO results in other conditions influencing the local and global pattern," AccuWeather's lead international forecaster Jason Nicholls said.
"The pattern this spring has resulted in some dryness concerns in the UK and northern Europe while southern Europe has been wet. It looks like the pattern will change heading into summer with more rain opportunities in northern Europe which may improve crop prospects."
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
20 hours ago
- Yahoo
Minnesota's summer outlook: Hotter and drier days ahead?
Minnesota's summer outlook: Hotter and drier days ahead? originally appeared on Bring Me The News. Meteorological summer began June 1, and the summer solstice is just a couple of weeks away on June 20. Spring was warm and wet for the Twin Cities, with warm conditions statewide, but the spring precipitation picture was more mixed. So far, June is running above normal on temperatures and a little below normal on rainfall, believe it or not. What might we expect the rest of this month and for the summer season? The official forecast for June from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) calls for slightly better odds of above-normal (versus below) temperatures. Their temperature probability pattern reflects what we've seen already: a series of upper-level lows (pools of cool air aloft) that dive into the central U.S., giving us some crummy periods with heat on either end of it. This pattern has led to cool, wet conditions already in the south-central U.S. On balance, this pattern has made us average out above normal for temperatures, but the same amount of precip farther south is unusual for this point in the summer, making their temps average below normal. Most of our medium- to long-range models agree with the CPC assessment. The consensus is for slightly above-normal June temperatures and slightly below-normal June precipitation—essentially what we've had this first week already. The CPC forecast calls for equal chances of below/above precipitation for the month of June. Summer appears to amplify the pattern we're seeing a bit more. There's a higher likelihood overall of summer temperatures averaging above normal and precipitation averaging below normal than in June itself. The official CPC forecast calls for slightly better odds of above-normal summer temperatures but also slightly higher odds of below-normal summer precipitation, with the 'bull's eye' of highest odds not far to our west. The North American Multi-Model Forecast Ensembles (NMME) is more bullish on temperature. These are several different forecast models used by NOAA for North America, averaged together (ensembles). The NMME calls for nearly 80% odds of above-normal summer temperatures and slightly below-normal summer precipitation. The 80% stood out to me because when we look at climate data alone, and not forecast models, about 70% to 80% of summers since the year 2000 have averaged above normal (1991–2020 average) for temperatures. So, without looking at anything, you could make a good bet on summers being warmer than normal. Winter gets a lot of attention because it is our fastest-warming season (with more warm extremes), but summer is more consistent (fewer extremes, but more consistently above the normals). On a statewide basis, too, 68% of summers for the last quarter-century have been above normal. Consistent summer warmth and volatile winters, with warm winters outpacing cooler winters, is a telltale sign of climate change for our region. This story was originally reported by Bring Me The News on Jun 8, 2025, where it first appeared.
Yahoo
a day ago
- Yahoo
Eastern Pacific hurricane season intensifies, with more storms on the horizon
The eastern Pacific hurricane is heating up — and it's only just begun. The season, which runs from May 15 to Nov. 30, has already produced its first named storm: Tropical Storm Alvin. Alvin developed at the end of May and reached gusts of up to 95 km/h, but forecasters believe it won't be alone for long. CHECK OUT: The U.S. National Hurricane Center is monitoring three disturbances south of Mexico, with at least two expected to intensify into named storms during the next 48 hours. If they do, say hello to Barbara and Cosme. Storms tend to develop earlier when the environment is ready. Lower wind shear—or less disruption in wind patterns—is allowing tropical systems to organize and strengthen. A neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) keeps sea surface temperatures close to normal. DON'T MISS: This balanced setup makes it difficult to predict how intense the season will be, but cooler waters in parts of the Pacific — caused by a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) — may help to calm things down later. According to NOAA, the Pacific basin is expected to see 12 to 18 named storms, with five to 10 reaching hurricane strength. Of those, two to five could become major hurricanes — Category 3 or higher. In comparison, last year saw 14 named storms, five hurricanes and three major hurricanes. However, it still looks small in comparison to the record-breaking 1992 season, which saw 27 named storms, 16 hurricanes and 10 major hurricanes. SEE ALSO: While the outlook is not dire, forecasters say it's still important to remain alert, particularly as conditions can change quickly. For now, all eyes are focused on the Pacific and what the coming days may bring. Thumbnail credit to Tyler Hamilton, a meteorologist at The Weather Network.
Yahoo
a day ago
- Yahoo
NOAA expects up to 5 major hurricanes in 2025: 'Be prepared'
When you buy through links on our articles, Future and its syndication partners may earn a commission. Many people are still recovering from devastating storms during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season even as this year's season began this week on June 1. And like last year's, the 2025 hurricane season is anticipated to be busier than normal. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 every year, and before it begins, forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), part of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, share their thoughts on what type of storm activity we could see. For the 2025 season, CPC researchers forecast that chances sit at 60% that it will be "above normal," with the number of named storms between 13 to 19 (where wind speeds get up to a minimum of 39 mph, or 63 kph). Of those named storms, six to ten are anticipated to reach hurricane strength (winds of at least 74 mph, or 119 kph), and between three to five will develop into major hurricanes. Major hurricanes are defined as those that grow to at least Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, meaning sustained winds reach a minimum of 111 mph (179 kph). Typically, for a hurricane season to be "normal," there will be 14 named storms, where seven strengthen into hurricanes and three are major. These storms have the potential to impact millions of people, NOAA leaders say. "As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities," Laura Grimm, acting NOAA Administrator, said in a statement. "NOAA is critical for the delivery of early and accurate forecasts and warnings, and provides the scientific expertise needed to save lives and property." To determine how busy the season could be, forecasters consider a variety of factors. This year, the prediction was made based on a persistence of neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions, ocean temperatures trending above average, the likelihood of weak wind shear, and a possibility of increased activity from the West African monsoon (this is where hurricanes in the Atlantic primarily originate). With the continuation of elevated ocean temperatures and decreased trade winds, there's more energy available to fire up tropical systems and less of a chance storms will be disrupted or "torn apart" while they are forming. Also, with the possibility that the West African monsoon will shift to the north, this would set the stage for the production of tropical waves that can turn into powerful and long-duration systems in the Atlantic. RELATED STORIES: — Satellites reveal Hurricane Helene's deadly fury as a monster Category 4 storm during landfall (videos) — 'Their loss diminishes us all': Scientists emphasize how Trump's mass NOAA layoffs endanger the world — Scientists warn of consequences as over 800 NOAA workers are fired: 'Censoring science does not change the facts' NOAA leaders stress that the 2024 season should serve as a reminder of why forecasting is so vital to ensure that as many people are as prepared as possible during hurricane season. "In my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we've never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather," Ken Graham, NOAA's National Weather Service Director, said in a statement. "This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you're ready before a storm threatens." It is important to note that the outlook NOAA puts out every season refers specifically to the development of storms, and it is not a prediction for landfalling storms. There will be another update in early August from NOAA's CPC to the seasonal outlook, which will account for how the season is progressing, which also takes place just before the climatological peak of the season.
