Overall situation rosier than expected; we are getting into peace, not war & India is in a sweet spot: Swaminathan Aiyar
You Might Also Like:
Consensus not confident on India's cyclical revival for next 2 years: Jigar Mistry
(You can now subscribe to our
(You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel
, Consulting Editor,, says geopolitical tensions are easing across several regions. There is de-escalation between Russia and Kyiv, and positive developments in Israel. India-Pakistan and Iraq-Iran relations are also showing signs of improvement. India's economic performance is exceptional. Optimism surrounds India's ability to exceed expectations this year. The overall outlook is surprisingly positive at this moment.I would say that what is happening is astonishingly positive. Just as we thought we are getting into a war, we are actually getting into a peace, and getting out of the war. We have an unusual situation now where there is in effect a ceasefire in Ukraine, Kyiv; a ceasefire is foreseen over Israel and Iran. The Americans have finished off the regime in Iran which seeks no immediate revenge. It wants to survive right now. We had an almost laughable situation where Iran said they will send some missiles to bomb American facilities in Qatar, but informed them in advance, so that everything would be safe and there would be no damage and no escalation.So, at this particular point, when people were worrying about World War III or a nuclear war, the attitude of the Iranian government was 'I just want to survive, I want to de-escalate at this point.' So, we have a situation which is very positive in terms of both Kyiv and what is happening in Israel. Peace is breaking out, in a sense, in both ways. So, a lot of the things that we are worrying about are giving way to pretty positive things as far as geopolitics is concerned. Far from being worst case scenarios, we are moving towards some pretty good case scenarios as far as the hostilities are concerned. And shall we say India-Pakistan also? So, India-Pakistan, Iraq-Iran, Russia- Kyiv, everything is settling down at this particular point. It is a very surprisingly positive outlook right now.India is in a sweet spot. It is more than that. If you look at the actual performance of the last two financial years, 2023-24 growth has been revised up to 9.2%. When that happened, a lot of people sneered and said this is because of an extremely extraordinarily low GDP deflator. But if that was the case, then we should have had just the other way around in 24-25 and therefore, 24-25 should have come down.So, the proper thing is to take the average of the two. If you take the average of those two years, it is 7.8%. It is nowhere near the 6.5% that Mr Anantha Nageswaran, Chief Economic Adviser, is aiming at. It is far above at a time when the overall global situation has been very tough. So, I can only say that it is not just India's prospects, India's actual performance in the last two years on the basis of the latest data, looks so exceptional that there is a case for optimism that this year too, we will exceed the kind of targets being put out.On the other hand, the chance of a recession in the USA remains. The other thing that is happening is Mr Trump has persuaded or shall we say forced a new attitude in Europe. The European Union instead of saying we will spend 3% of GDP on defence, will have to aim at 5%. So, the cold war dividend is now gone and all these countries will be spending more on armament. There may be correspondingly less available for consumer demand to that extent and that could be a negative. These are the two medium-term negatives still out there.But overall, India has the capacity to look forward with some confidence that we have overcome extremely difficult situations. Will we be able to overcome the challenges of the coming short recession? Possibly. Will we be able to overcome this gradual fall in consumer demand that we are seeing? Yes. What will happen about Mr Trump's tariffs remains a question. The 90 days deadline for Trump tariffs is coming up. What happens after 90 days? Will the reciprocal tariffs come back? Will they go up? Will they go down?We have a new situation in the USA where some courts are beginning to take note of does Mr Trump have the right as president to declare that on the basis of national emergency, he is going to raise these tariffs across the board? One American court has ruled that while you can do specific things like raise tariffs on priority items like aluminium or steel, but to impose a 10% tariff across the board is not an emergency action. So, let us see what happens. The courts also may be able to stop some of the worst actions that Mr Trump has threatened on the tariff side. We are getting close to that 90-day deadline. Let us see. But as I said, the overall situation is looking much rosier than I would have said one month ago.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
&w=3840&q=100)
First Post
10 minutes ago
- First Post
What is Pakistan's nuclear weapons capability? Who is in-charge of its nukes?
Pakistan army chief Asim Munir's threat from the US has put a spotlight on the country's nuclear weapons. It is estimated that Islamabad has an estimated 170 warheads and is quickly developing more with the help of China read more Pakistan's nuclear-capable missile, Shaheen 1, is driven in Islamabad. The country boasts of several nuclear weapons and spends billions to develop them. File image/Reuters 'We are a nuclear nation, if we think we are going down, we'll take half the world down with us.' That's what Pakistan army's Field Marshal Asim Munir said on Sunday while speaking at a private dinner being held on American soil. But the army chief didn't stop there; on India's decision to pause the Indus Waters Treaty after the Pahalgam attack, he said, 'We will wait for India to build a dam, and when it does so, phir 10 missile sey faarigh kar dengey [we will destroy it with 10 missiles].' STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD While Pakistan has made nuclear threats in the past, what makes these remarks notable is that this is the first time such ultimatums have been issued from US soil against a third country. Munir issues nuclear threats from US Visiting the US a second time within a month, Field Marshal Munir at a dinner being hosted by businessman Adnan Asad, who serves as honorary consul for Pakistan in Florida's Tampa, said that Pakistan would respond with nuclear weapons if it faced an existential threat in a future war with India. He told attendees as per a report in The Print, 'We are a nuclear nation, if we think we are going down, we'll take half the world down with us.' At a dinner in the US, Pakistan army chief raised the spectre of a nuclear war, stating that Pakistan would respond with nuclear weapons if it faced an existential threat in a future war with India. File image/Reuters He further threatened to destroy any infrastructure that India builds, which has the potential to disrupt the flow of the Indus river. Munir claimed that New Delhi's decision to place the Indus Waters Treaty into abeyance after the Pahalgam terror attack in April could put 250 million people at risk of starvation. 'We will wait for India to build a dam, and when it does so, phir das missile sey faarigh kar dengey [we will destroy it with 10 missiles]…The Indus River is not the Indians' family property. Humein missilon ki kami nahin hai, al-hamdulillah [we have no shortage of missiles, Praise be to God],' Munir reportedly said. Munir was in the US to attend the retirement ceremony of outgoing US Central Command (CENTCOM) Commander General Michael Kurilla and the Change of Command Ceremony for Admiral Brad Cooper, who took over as CENTCOM head. Munir praised Kurilla's leadership and contribution to US-Pakistan military ties, while wishing Cooper success in tackling shared security issues. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD This visit follows Munir's rare five-day US trip in June, when he attended a private luncheon with President Donald Trump. That meeting led to announcements of increased US-Pakistan cooperation, including an oil deal. Pakistan's nuclear power With Munir issuing a nuclear threat, the question on everyone's mind is: how many nukes does Pakistan possess? According to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri), a leading defence and armaments think tank, Pakistan is a strong nuclear power, having an estimated 170 warheads as per its latest assessment. In comparison, India has 180 nuclear stored warheads as of January 2025. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, however, noted in 2023 that Islamabad has the potential to increase its nuclear arsenal quickly as it has several new delivery systems in development, four plutonium production reactors, and an expanding uranium enrichment infrastructure. Pakistan's nuclear-capable air-launched 'Ra'ad' cruise missile seen in Islamabad. Pakistan is a strong nuclear power, having an estimated 170 warheads. File image/Reuters Christopher Clary, a security affairs expert at the University at Albany in the US, has noted that a bulk of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal lies in its land-based missile forces, though it is developing nuclear triads capable of delivering warheads by land, air and sea STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Moreover, the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons wrote in 2023 that Pakistan had spent a whopping $1 billion to develop its nuclear weapons programme. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Pakistan's arsenal consists primarily of mobile short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, which have enough of a range to target India. China's significant technical assistance on its nuclear and missile programmes has helped Pakistan in recent years. For years, Pakistan's possession of nuclear weapons has been a concern for the world over. This is because Islamabad has never formally declared an official nuclear doctrine. Pakistan's nuclear button Munir's threat to use nuclear weapons has also raised questions about control of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. In Pakistan, nuclear weapon control lies with the top leadership, including the president and the prime minister, with oversight provided by the Nuclear Command and Control System (NCCS). The president and the prime minister make the final decision to use nuclear weapons jointly. The military, responsible for the security and launching of these weapons, has significant involvement in this process. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Reports state that Pakistan's arsenal is controlled by the National Command Authority (NCA), which is officially chaired by the prime minister. Formed in 2000, it is the nation's highest decision-making authority on nuclear and missile policy issues, and oversees all nuclear and missile programmes. However, the International Institute for Strategic Studies notes that although the makeup of the committee grants substantial authority to the civilian government, 'in practice, the military would probably prevail on nuclear decision-making during wartime or a military crisis.' However, there have been rumours that the United States has a contingency plan in place. In 2011, NBC News reported that the US has a plan of 'snatch and grab' when it comes to Pakistan's nuclear weapons. According to the news outlet, this would come into effect if and when the US president believed that Pakistan's weapons were a threat to either the country or its interests. Moreover, According to NBC, such plans were drawn up even before the 9/11 terror attacks in the US. Washington became even more concerned of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal in the aftermath of the Osama bin Laden raid in 2011. US military officials had testified before Congress about the security of Pakistan's nuclear weapons and the threat posed by 'loose nukes' or materials outside the government's control. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Reacting to the report, former Pakistan military ruler Pervez Musharraf had warned that a snatch-and-grab operation would lead to all-out war between the countries, calling it 'total confrontation by the whole nation against whoever comes in'. With inputs from agencies
India.com
10 minutes ago
- India.com
It Aint Over Till The Fat Lady Sings: Sri Lankan MP Backs India Amid US Tariff Blitz
Amid the United States' tariff blitz against India, Sri Lankan MP Harsha de Silva has backed New Delhi, urging the ruling party not to mock but to support its neighbour. While US President Donald Trump has hiked tariffs on India to 51%, those on Sri Lanka have been revised to 30%, reducing it from the initially threatened 44%. Some ruling party leaders in Sri Lanka were praising their government for keeping the tariff low compared to India. Reacting to their remarks, Sri Lankan MP Harsha de Silva called out the ruling government for mocking India's bold stand against Trump's trade tariffs. "India, our true ally, stood by us in our toughest times. We should honor their fight, not laugh. India's courage inspires Asia," he said on X. In a video shared on X, the Sri Lankan MP said, "Let's not talk about the US tariffs here. Don't laugh at India. Don't mock them when they are down because when we were down, they were the only ones to lend us a hand. There is one thing that I want to tell you - it ain't over until the fat lady sings. We witnessed you guys laughing. Don't laugh. India expected the US tariffs to come down to 15% and we also expected the same." Sri Lankan MP Harsha de Silva was reminding his fellow MPs about India's $4B+ aid during the island nation's 2022 crisis when others didn't help. The video captures him scolding laughter amid tariff debates. US President Trump imposed 25% additional tariffs on Indian goods (totalling up to 50%) as punishment for India's Russian oil imports, which the US sees as funding Russia's Ukraine war. This sparked US-India tensions, with India pausing US arms buys. "There is a chance that Sri Lanka may receive (additional) tariffs between 15-20%," said the MP. Called out the Govt in @ParliamentLK for mocking India's bold stand against Trump's trade tariffs. #India, our true ally, stood by us in our toughest times. We should honor their fight, not laugh. India's courage inspires Asia! #StandWithIndia #SriLanka #TrumpTariffs — Harsha de Silva (@HarshadeSilvaMP) August 10, 2025 Notably, while China is the biggest importer of Russian oil, the US has maintained caution while dealing with Beijing. On the other hand, Trump has reportedly been irked after India refused to buzz down and did not open the Indian agri sector to American goods, thus inviting additional tariffs, a pressure tactic by the US to force India into a trade deal. However, the Narendra Modi government has maintained that it won't bow down to bullying by the United States.
Time of India
23 minutes ago
- Time of India
After Donald Trump asks Intel CEO to resign, former directors call for a new company; say: Only a dramatic...
Four former Intel board members are backing President Donald Trump's surprise attack on CEO Lip-Bu Tan but are pushing for an even more radical shake-up: spinning off Intel's manufacturing arm into an independent company to secure America's chipmaking dominance . In a collective statement provided to Fortune, former directors Charlene Barshefsky, Reed Hundt, James Plummer, and David Yoffie called for a dramatic restructuring focused on emancipating Intel's "Foundry" business–the manufacturing assets where Intel produces semiconductor chips for its own products and third-party customers. The group pointed out that Intel is on its fourth CEO in seven years with little improvement in results, arguing that only a dramatic break could restore Intel's competitiveness and protect US national security interests. Trump's demand follows security concerns over CEO's China ties by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Access all TV channels anywhere, anytime Techno Mag Learn More Undo The mounting pressure comes after Trump publicly demanded Tan's resignation on Truth Social, calling him "highly conflicted" following Senator Tom Cotton 's warnings about the CEO's extensive Chinese business connections. Cotton's letter revealed that Tan "reportedly controls dozens of Chinese companies," with at least eight having ties to the Chinese People's Liberation Army. Tan defended himself in a memo to Intel employees, stating: "There has been a lot of misinformation circulating about my past roles at Walden International and Cadence Design Systems. I have always operated within the highest legal and ethical standards." The Malaysian-born CEO, who has lived in the US for over 40 years, emphasized his commitment to American national security. Former directors propose foundry split to rival TSMC The former board members' proposal would create a new, independent manufacturing entity with its own CEO and board, positioned as an alternative to Taiwan's TSMC for both commercial and national security requirements. They called for remaining CHIPS Act funds to support the new company and help "persuade American design firms to place orders." Intel has fallen behind competitors like Nvidia and TSMC in recent years, with its chips now two generations behind rivals. The company secured $8 billion in CHIPS Act subsidies–the largest grant to a single company–making Tan's Chinese connections particularly problematic for national security officials as the drama continues to unfold in the semiconductor industry. – AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
