Warren Hammond's Personal View: The ceasefire that isn't - August's rising risk
August will be a geopolitically frustrating month, and history shows that such frustration often leads to missteps.
Here's why the so-called 'ceasefire' masks rising systemic risk, and what investors must prepare for now.
History warns us: frustration breeds miscalculation. Just ask 1962. Or 1951.
This article explains: Why the Israel–Iran 'ceasefire' is a mirage
How August echoes Cold War brinkmanship
What investors must do to prepare for volatility and escalation
In my July article, 'Fragile Highs – July Is Vulnerable', I explicitly warned that what was being publicly described as a ceasefire between Israel and Iran was, in reality, a fragile pause, not a sustainable peace.
Lifting the illusory curtain of calm revealed, as warned, that while direct conflict has been avoided, indirect hostilities have intensified.
Military operations resumed across Gaza and Syria, reflecting a regional strategy of containment and escalation. Both flashpoints highlight ongoing efforts to counter regional influence through indirect conflict dynamics, without triggering confrontation.
Since April, The Personal View has issued multiple warnings, forecasting geopolitical instability through June and July: Tension between Iran and Israel
The ongoing Russia–Ukraine war
Renewed US–China friction
Cyber and energy vulnerabilities
That outlook is now materialising.
Such periods don't just bring volatility; they cause gridlock. Delays, diplomatic bottlenecks, and miscommunication dominate. For governments and institutions, this is dangerous: decision fatigue and rising escalation risk.
Frustration will define August. For geopolitical actors, from Washington and Tehran to Moscow, Brussels, and Beijing, this is a month of diminishing patience and rising constraints. Tactical frustration risks strategic overreach.
While history never repeats perfectly, past moments of institutional strain offer sobering lessons: The 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, brinkmanship and communication breakdown
The 1951 Korean War escalation, a regional conflict, turned Cold War flashpoint
WWII's turning points, miscalculations that irreversibly shifted the global order
Not inevitable, each triggered by distrust, delay, and frustration. Today carries similar hallmarks.
What we are witnessing is not resolution, it is redirection. The Iran–Israel conflict hasn't ended; it has simply shifted form. Beneath the surface, tensions remain elevated.
August brings rising risk. Investors should position accordingly: Hedge exposures
Reduce fragility
Prepare for volatility spikes
Frustration fuels miscalculation. And August is built for both.
What do you think about President Trump's warning to Putin and the rising geopolitical tensions this August? Share your thoughts below.
Let us know by leaving a comment below, or send a WhatsApp to 060 011 021 1
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Individual investor performance may differ as a result of initial fees, the actual investment date, the date of reinvestments and dividend withholding tax. Full performance calculations are available from the manager on request. Annualised performance shows longer term performance rescaled to a 1-year period. Annualised performance is the average return per year over the period. Actual annual figures are available to the investor on request. Highest and lowest is returns for any 1 year over the period since inception have been shown. NAV is the net asset value represents the assets of a Fund less its liabilities. Prescient Management Company (RF) (Pty) Ltd is registered and approved under the Collective Investment Schemes Control Act (No.45 of 2002). For any additional information such as fund prices, fees, brochures, minimum disclosure documents and application forms please go to
