Fund managers buying these energy stocks as M&A activity heats up
Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail's market strategist Scott Barlow
BMO E&P analyst Jeremy McCrea identified the stocks institutional investors are buying in the sector,
'With the latest 13F and AMR ownership filings, we look at every fund that has reported a holding of at least one Canadian E&P since 2023 (approximately 5,800 funds). As global commodity prices and economic uncertainty continued, this group of funds sold $0.9 billion worth of CDN E&P companies; while still buying $0.1 billion of CDN mid-cap names … Bottom line, names that came up multiple times in our checklist criteria this quarter include Surge, Tamarack Valley, Topaz, Peyto and Headwater. 1. What 'energy-weighted' specialty funds are buying/selling. Typically, these funds are early movers and closer to company management including field-level operations (of the 29 high-energy focused funds we track). The top names held by these energy funds are ARC (Restricted), Tourmaline, Topaz, Advantage, and Headwater (with Peyto and Paramount new to the list). 2. What were the best-performing E&P stocks in 1Q25; which institutional funds had the foresight to buy these names in the preceding quarter, and what are these funds buying today? Collectively, these funds are now buying Whitecap, Topaz, and MEG (Restricted) … We highlight the names that have seen the most 'new buyers.' Names to highlight include Topaz, Baytex, Spartan Delta, and Whitecap'
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Also in the energy sector, RBC Capital Markets head of global energy research Greg Pardy assesses the importance of Strathcona Resources' (SCR-T) bid for MEG Energy (MEG-T),
'Strathcona Resources—Bold + Strategic. As framed in Strategically Bold, Strathcona's $2.84 billion Montney disposition and subsequent takeover bid for MEG constitutes a bold strategic thrust aimed at building a first-quartile oil sands producer that would afford quality scale, increase its float shares outstanding (currently 20% of outstanding shares) and enhance its portfolio. The company's 2026 pro[1]forma MEG outlook screens well financially. Cenovus Energy—Most Logical Fit. In our minds, Cenovus would be a logical acquirer of MEG given the proximity of its Christina Lake operations and potential for operating synergies beyond overhead/ cost savings that could be accretive to our 2026 pro-forma scenario analysis (using a 50/50 debt/equity financing structure). Timing would be less ideal given that Cenovus is completing a major capital cycle in 2025 aimed at adding up to 150,000 boe/d of production in 2026 and beyond and undertaking initiatives to improve its US refinery performance. Nonetheless, where there is a will there is a way, and we think this could involve the sale of assets as a partial funding source, possibly Cenovus' Liwan field in the South China Sea. Imperial Oil—Possible. Imperial is in an enviable position to acquire given its premium relative cash flow multiple and strong balance sheet (hence a potential 50/50 equity/debt financing scenario). The company's 2026 pro-forma MEG scenario looks solid by our yardstick, while strategically, a deal could complement its upstream portfolio with top-quartile SAGD operations'.
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Morgan Stanley cross asset strategist Serena Tang is impressed that the global economy has avoided recession and favours U.S. equities for the remainder of 2025,
'The global economy is not in a recession: Despite unprecedented policy uncertainty, the global economy is still in expansion mode, albeit with slowing growth. Off-ramps for de-escalation of trade tensions exist and we expect that tariffs will not end at the extreme levels in the aftermath of Liberation Day. Substantial monetary easing is ahead along with the benefits of deregulation. US assets remain compelling versus the RoW: US Treasuries, equities, and credit outperform their RoW counterparts on our forecasts. We push back against the idea that foreign investors would or should abandon US assets significantly, although we expect greater currency hedging. Persistent USD weakness: We expect USD to continue to weaken thanks to both a convergence in US rates and growth to peers … We roll forward our S&P 500 price target of 6,500: We've already experienced rolling earnings recessions across the equity market for the last ~3 years. This makes comparisons less onerous and sets the stage for a more synchronous EPS recovery over the course of our forecast horizon. We see 2025 EPS of US$259 (7% growth), 2026 EPS of US$283 (9% growth), and 2027 EPS of US$321 (13% growth)'
***
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Diversion: 'Supercharged Antibodies: Scientists Engineer Potent New Weapon Against Cancer' – SciTechDaily
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Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements in this press release about our current and future plans, expectations and intentions, results, levels of activity, performance, goals or achievements or any other future events or developments constitute forward-looking statements, including the statements relating to the intended development of a logistics hub in Western Canada and the related expected timeline and costs, the Corporation's fiscal 2026 outlook and capital allocation strategy, including its intentions regarding dividends and share repurchases, the timing for the opening by Dollarcity of its first stores in Mexico, the proposed acquisition by the Corporation of The Reject Shop Limited, including regarding the anticipated timing of the completion of the acquisition and certain anticipated benefits of the proposed acquisition. The words "may", "will", "would", "should", "could", "expects", "plans", "intends", "trends", "indications", "anticipates", "believes", "estimates", "predicts", "likely" or "potential" or the negative or other variations of these words or other comparable words or phrases, are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are based on information currently available to management and on estimates and assumptions made by management regarding, among other things, general economic and geopolitical conditions and the competitive environment within the retail industry in Canada and in Latin America as well as, in the case of the fiscal 2026 outlook, the estimates and assumptions discussed in the section "Fiscal 2026 Outlook and Capital Allocation Strategy", in each case, in light of its experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions and expected future developments, as well as other factors that are believed to be appropriate and reasonable in the circumstances. However, there can be no assurance that such estimates and assumptions will prove to be correct. 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These factors are not intended to represent a complete list of the factors that could affect the Corporation or Dollarcity; however, they should be considered carefully. The purpose of the forward-looking statements is to provide the reader with a description of management's expectations regarding the Corporation's and Dollarcity's financial performance and may not be appropriate for other purposes. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements made herein. Furthermore, unless otherwise stated, the forward-looking statements contained in this press release are made as at June 11, 2025 and management has no intention and undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. All of the forward-looking statements contained in this press release are expressly qualified by this cautionary statement. Virtual Shareholder Meeting and First Quarter Results Conference Call Dollarama will hold its annual general meeting of shareholders today, June 11, 2025 at 9:00 a.m. (ET). All shareholders and guests will be able to listen to the live audio webcast. However, only registered shareholders as of the close of business on April 17, 2025 and duly appointed proxyholders (including non-registered shareholders who have duly appointed themselves as proxyholder) will be able to vote and submit questions at the meeting. The meeting will be conducted virtually, via live audio webcast at : Dollarama will hold a conference call to discuss its fiscal 2026 first quarter results today, June 11, 2025 at 11:00 a.m. (ET) followed by a question and answer period for financial analysts only. Other interested parties may participate in the call on a listen-only basis via live audio webcast accessible through Dollarama's website at About Dollarama Founded in 1992 and headquartered in Montréal, Quebec, Canada, Dollarama is a recognized Canadian value retailer offering a broad assortment of consumable products, general merchandise and seasonal items both in-store and online. With stores in all Canadian provinces and two territories, our 1,638 locations across Canada provide customers with compelling value in convenient locations, including metropolitan areas, mid-sized cities and small towns. Our quality merchandise is sold at select fixed price points up to $5.00. Dollarama also owns a 60.1% interest in Dollarcity, a growing Latin American value retailer. Dollarcity offers a broad assortment of consumable products, general merchandise and seasonal items at select, fixed price points up to US$4.00 (or the equivalent in local currency) in 644 conveniently located stores in Colombia, Guatemala, El Salvador and Peru. As at (dollars in thousands) May 4, 2025 February 2, 2025 $ $ Statement of Financial Position Data Cash and cash equivalents 229,008 122,685 Inventories 939,120 921,095 Total current assets 1,249,132 1,201,280 Property, plant and equipment 1,064,116 1,046,390 Right-of-use assets 2,132,909 2,109,445 Total assets 6,568,184 6,482,592 Total current liabilities 952,452 1,014,306 Total non-current liabilities 4,295,659 4,280,028 Total debt (1) 2,269,831 2,282,679 Net debt (1) 2,040,823 2,159,994 Shareholders' equity 1,320,073 1,188,258 Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures The Corporation prepares its financial information in accordance with GAAP. Management has included non‑GAAP and other financial measures to provide investors with supplemental measures of the Corporation's operating and financial performance. Management believes that those measures are important supplemental metrics of operating and financial performance because they eliminate items that have less bearing on the Corporation's operating and financial performance and thus highlight trends in its core business that may not otherwise be apparent when relying solely on GAAP measures. Management also believes that securities analysts, investors and other interested parties frequently use non-GAAP and other financial measures in the evaluation of issuers. Management also uses non-GAAP and other financial measures to facilitate operating and financial performance comparisons from period to period, to prepare annual budgets and to assess their ability to meet the Corporation's future debt service, capital expenditure and working capital requirements. The below-described non-GAAP and other financial measures do not have a standardized meaning prescribed by GAAP and are therefore unlikely to be comparable to similar measures presented by other issuers and should be considered as a supplement to, not a substitute for, or superior to, the comparable measures calculated in accordance with GAAP. (A) Non-GAAP Financial Measures EBITDA EBITDA represents net earnings plus income taxes, net financing costs and depreciation and amortization and includes the Corporation's share of net earnings of its equity-accounted investment. Management believes EBITDA measure represents a supplemental metric to assess the operational profitability of the underlying core operations. The Corporation has revised its reconciliation approach for EBITDA by beginning with net earnings, rather than operating income as in prior periods. This change was implemented to consider the impact of the unrealized gain from derivative on equity-accounted investment and to improve comparability with industry peers. The change has no impact on the comparative period and EBITDA previously reported by the Company for the years ended February 2, 2025 and January 28, 2024. The Corporation also calculates EBITDA excluding unrealized gain from derivative on equity-accounted investment, in order to exclude the impact of the Call Option, given the Call Option does not reflect ongoing operations of the Corporation and should not, in management's view, be considered in a long-term assessment of the operational profitability of the underlying core operations of the Corporation. A reconciliation of net earnings to EBITDA is included below: Total debt Total debt represents the sum of long-term debt (including unamortized debt issue costs, accrued interest and fair value hedge – basis adjustment), short-term borrowings under the US commercial paper program, long-term financing arrangements and other bank indebtedness (if any). Management believes Total debt is a measure that is useful to facilitate the understanding of the Corporation's corporate financial position in relation to its financing obligations. A reconciliation of long-term debt to total debt is included below: Net debt Net debt represents total debt minus cash and cash equivalents. Management believes Net debt represents a useful additional measure to assess the financial position of the Corporation by showing all of the Corporation's financing obligations, net of cash and cash equivalents. A reconciliation of total debt to net debt is included below: (B) Non-GAAP Ratios Adjusted net debt to EBITDA ratio Adjusted net debt to EBITDA ratio is a ratio calculated using adjusted net debt over consolidated EBITDA for the last twelve months. Management uses this ratio to partially assess the financial condition of the Corporation. An increasing ratio would indicate that the Corporation is utilizing more debt per dollar of EBITDA generated. A calculation of adjusted net debt to EBITDA ratio is included below: EBITDA margin EBITDA margin represents EBITDA divided by sales. Management believes that this measure is useful in assessing the performance of ongoing operations and efficiency of operations relative to its sales. The Corporation also calculates EBITDA margin excluding unrealized gain from derivative on equity-accounted investment, in order to exclude the impact of the Call Option, given the Call Option does not reflect ongoing operations of the Corporation and should not, in management's view, be considered in a long-term assessment of the operational profitability of the underlying core operations of the Corporation. A reconciliation of EBITDA to EBITDA margin is included below: (C) Supplementary Financial Measures For further information: Investors: Patrick Bui, Chief Financial Officer, (514) 737-1006 x1237, [email protected] Media: Lyla Radmanovich, PELICAN PR, (514) 845-8763, [email protected] SOURCE Dollarama Inc.
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Article content Galaxy Asset Management operates Galaxy Digital Capital Management LP, the sub-advisor to ETHX. Article content CI Galaxy Ethereum ETF (the 'ETF') is an exchange traded mutual fund that invests in the digital currency Ether ('ETH'). Given the speculative nature of digital assets, including ETH, and the volatility of ETH markets, there is no assurance that the ETF will be able to meet its investment objective. An investment in the ETF is not intended as a complete investment program and is appropriate only for investors who have the capacity to absorb a loss of some or all of their investment. An investment in the ETF is considered high risk. Article content Commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with an investment in exchange-traded funds (ETFs). You will usually pay brokerage fees to your dealer if you purchase or sell units of an ETF on recognized Canadian exchanges. If the units are purchased or sold on these Canadian exchanges, investors may pay more than the current net asset value when buying units of the ETF and may receive less than the current net asset value when selling them. Please read the prospectus before investing. Important information about an exchange-traded fund is contained in its prospectus. ETFs are not guaranteed; their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. Article content This communication is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase mutual funds managed by CI Global Asset Management and is not, and should not be construed as, investment, tax, legal or accounting advice, and should not be relied upon in that regard. Every effort has been made to ensure that the material contained in this document is accurate at the time of publication. Individuals should seek the advice of professionals, as appropriate, regarding any particular investment. Investors should consult their professional advisors prior to implementing any changes to their investment strategies. These investments may not be suitable to the circumstances of an investor. Article content CI Galaxy Ethereum ETF is an alternative mutual fund and has the ability to invest in asset classes or use investment strategies that are not permitted for conventional mutual funds. Galaxy Digital Capital Management LP is the sub-advisor for the Fund. CI Global Asset Management is the manager, trustee, and promoter of the Fund. Article content Certain statements contained in this communication are based in whole or in part on information provided by third parties and CI Global Asset Management has taken reasonable steps to ensure their accuracy. Market conditions may change which may impact the information contained in this document. Article content Certain statements in this document are forward-looking. Forward-looking statements ('FLS') are statements that are predictive in nature, depend upon or refer to future events or conditions, or that include words such as 'may,' 'will,' 'should,' 'could,' 'expect,' 'anticipate,' 'intend,' 'plan,' 'believe,' or 'estimate,' or other similar expressions. Statements that look forward in time or include anything other than historical information are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results, actions or events could differ materially from those set forth in the FLS. FLS are not guarantees of future performance and are by their nature based on numerous assumptions. Although the FLS contained herein are based upon what CI Global Asset Management and the portfolio manager believe to be reasonable assumptions, neither CI Global Asset Management nor the portfolio manager can assure that actual results will be consistent with these FLS. The reader is cautioned to consider the FLS carefully and not to place undue reliance on FLS. Unless required by applicable law, it is not undertaken, and specifically disclaimed that there is any intention or obligation to update or revise FLS, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Article content Article content Article content Article content Contacts
