Comment: A cautionary tale for Asean from the Middle East

The Star

2 days ago

(A commentary by Dr Julia Roknifard, a Middle East expert and a Senior Lecturer for the Bachelor's program on Philosophy, Politics, and Economics (PPE) at Taylor's University. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of BERNAMA.)
As the Middle East remains in a state of dangerous instability, Asean presented with an opportunity to examine the causes of these conflicts and draw valuable lessons.
While taking pride in its longstanding neutrality and consensus-building, which have underpinned its regional stability, Asean must adapt to emerging geopolitical realities.
For the grouping to maintain its relevance and agency in a contested multipolar world, it must avoid the strategic fragmentation that has plagued the Middle East and strengthen its own framework for collective security.
Asean's fragile consensus
Asean, in contrast, has often been lauded for its cautious but sustainable approach to diplomacy, with principles of non-interference, consensus, and neutrality at its core.
The "ASEAN Way' of informal dialogue and mutual respect has helped prevent open conflict among its members for decades.
There are challenges, however, with great power rivalry over the South China Sea, which has exposed Asean's internal divisions as just one glaring example.
While Vietnam and the Philippines seek stronger resistance against encroachments, others like Cambodia and Laos often take a more accommodating stance. This divergence threatens to paralyse the grouping when collective action is most needed.
Furthermore, Asean faces growing pressure from external powers such as China, the United States, India, Japan, and the European Union, all vying for influence in the region.
The Quad, AUKUS (Australia, the UK, and the US), and increased US military presence signal a securitised Asia-Pacific that could soon drag Asean into rivalries it has long sought to avoid.
Without greater strategic cohesion, Asean risks repeating the Middle Eastern pattern of division and dependency, becoming an arena for power projection rather than an actor shaping its own future.
Key lessons and the way forward for Asean
The Middle East demonstrates that a lack of regional unity leaves individual nations vulnerable to manipulation and exploitation.
Asean must recognise that its strength lies not in the sum of its parts, but in its ability to act with a unified voice. While complete consensus may be elusive, a flexible core group of willing states could lead on issues of regional security without waiting for unanimity.
Asean's commitment to neutrality has served it well, but in a more polarised world, neutrality must evolve into proactive non-alignment.
This means not only avoiding entanglement in great-power blocs but also taking a firmer stand on regional security issues, particularly in maritime disputes, cross-border security, and transnational crime.
It is important to note that these very criminal networks that operate along porous borders are often exploited to traffic arms that could be used by non-state actors to create instability.
Unlike the Middle East, Asean has an advantage through its institutional foundation, which could facilitate a multilateral defence or security coordination framework.
While a full military alliance may be unrealistic, a regional maritime coordination centre, joint patrol arrangements, or a rapid response force for non-traditional threats such as disaster relief, piracy, and cyberattacks would enhance Asean's credibility and security.
Asan should adopt a more robust position against the militarisation of its region by external actors.
Just as foreign bases and arms deals in the Middle East have entrenched foreign influence, Southeast Asia must guard against becoming a base for great-power military logistics or surveillance.
Transparency, dialogue, and clear regional red lines can help manage this risk.
Institutions such as the Arab League have been ineffective in part due to a lack of enforcement capability and legitimacy. Asean must avoid the same fate by streamlining decision-making, empowering its secretariat, and reducing the influence of members who act as proxies for external interests.
To secure its future, Asean must begin a serious conversation about regional defence autonomy. This doesn't mean cutting ties with the US or China or other blocs, but rather strengthening the grouping's collective bargaining power and ability to shape outcomes in its own neighbourhood.
South-East Asia's economic dynamism and strategic location give it leverage, but only if wielded with strategic intent.
Asean could develop a code of conduct not only for the South China Sea but for all foreign military activity in Southeast Asia. This would require transparency on base agreements, arms transfers, and intelligence-sharing with external powers.
This must be paired by expanding the Asean Défense Ministers' Meeting (ADMM) to include a permanent crisis monitoring centre capable of early warning and real-time coordination.
Intelligence sharing and surveillance coordination, which are currently fragmented, will be far more effective and successful through this.
The grouping must also reinforce its political values. Non-interference must not become a shield for impunity.
Myanmar's crisis is a test of Asean's will to uphold basic norms of governance and order. If unresolved, it threatens to erode the region's moral authority and cohesion.
Asean must shape its own trajectory
The Middle East did not descend into chaos overnight. It unravelled through decades of missed opportunities, broken alliances, and dependence on foreign patrons.
For now, Asean is in a far better position as it can either build on its history of cautious cooperation to become a more resilient, strategic actor, or it can cling to an outdated consensus model and become another arena for global competition.
Asean's future as a stable, independent regional bloc depends on whether it can draw the right lessons from the Middle East and act on them before the storm arrives. - Bernama