The S&P 500 could soon return to record highs as sentiment improves
For the moment, it seems stocks can't be stopped. The S & P 500 eked out a small gain on Monday, extending its winning streak to six days after reversing a decline sparked by a Moody's downgrade of the U.S. debt. The advance added to the benchmark's rebound off the lows that followed the April 2 tariff announcement. Since reaching an April 7 intraday low, the index is up more than 23%. Easing tariff rates and improving investor sentiment fueled the gain. What's next, if history is any indication, is an extension of this bounce — which could take the S & P 500 back to all-time highs. Bank of America noted that its Global Equity Risk-Love Indicator has bounced from "deep panic readings" in early April back to neutral. Strategist Ritesh Samadhiya noted the indicator has swung from panic to neutral 32 times in the last 38 years. He added that in only four of those instances did sentiment fall back into panic levels — "while in all other episodes, it rose further to euphoric levels." "Washed-out sentiment, followed by marked improvement in market breadth against a backdrop of monetary easing, has historically been associated with a continuation or formation of a new bull market. While history is not a perfect guide, the weight of the evidence suggests that markets may continue to climb higher," Samadhiya said. .SPX bar 2025-04-07 S & P 500 since April 7 The S & P 500 ended Monday's session just 3% below its record closing high of 6,144.15. To be sure, megacap tech — which has led the market rebound back toward record highs — could lose steam near term. DataTrek Research co-founder Jessica Rabe noted that the iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM) has outperformed the S & P 500 by 10 percentage points this year. Historically, momentum has lagged the broader market index following periods of such strong gains. "When Momentum has beaten the S & P by at least 10 points over any given 100 trading day holding period as it has just done, it has gone on to underperform by an average of 3.8 points over the next 100 days," Rabe wrote. "Further, its win rate (positive forward 100-day returns/total) is just 19 percent."
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Yahoo
22 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Asian shares are mixed and oil prices advance as Israel-Iran crisis escalates
HONG KONG (AP) — Asian shares were mixed on Monday and oil prices extended gains on worries that escalating Iran-Israel tensions could disrupt the flow of crude around the world. U.S. benchmark crude oil added 20 cents to $73.18 per barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, gained 95 cents to $75.18 per barrel. In share trading, Tokyo's Nikkei 225 added 1.3% to 38,307.74, while the Kospi in Seoul gained 0.9% to 2,920.57. Chinese markets were little changed after data for May showed stronger consumer spending but weaker factory activity and investment. A 6.1% year-on-year jump in retail sales was offset but lower than expected growth in industrial output, which rose 5.8% from a year earlier. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.1% to 23,864.20 and the Shanghai Composite Index added less than 0.1% to 3,378.78. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.2% to 8,547.40. On Friday, oil prices jumped and stocks slumped after Israel's attack on Iranian nuclear and military targets. The S&P 500 sank 1.1% to 5,976.97. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.8% to 42,197.79, and the Nasdaq composite lost 1.3% to 19,406.83. The strongest action was in the oil market, where the price of a barrel of benchmark U.S. crude and Brent crude, the international standard surged more than 7%. Iran is one of the world's major producers of oil, though sanctions by Western countries have limited its sales. If a wider war erupts, it could slow the flow of Iran's oil to its customers and keep the price of crude and gasoline higher for everyone worldwide. Beyond the oil coming from Iran, analysts also pointed to the potential for disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a relatively narrow waterway off Iran's coast. Much of the world's oil that's been pulled from the ground moves through it on ships. Companies that use a lot of fuel as part of their business and need their customers feeling confident enough to travel suffered some of the sharpest losses. Cruise operator Carnival dropped 4.9%. United Airlines sank 4.4%, and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings fell 5%. They helped overshadow gains for U.S. oil producers and other companies that could benefit from increased fighting between Israel and Iran. Exxon Mobil rose 2.2%, and ConocoPhillips gained 2.4% because the leaping price of crude portends bigger profits for them. Contractors that make weapons and defense equipment also rallied. Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman and RTX all rose more than 3%. The price of gold climbed as investors searched for safer places to park their cash. An ounce of gold added 1.4% on Friday and was holding steady early Monday. Prices for Treasury bonds will likewise rise when investors are feeling nervous, but Treasury prices fell Friday, which in turn pushed up their yields, in part because of worries that a spike in oil prices could drive inflation higher. Inflation has remained relatively tame recently, and it's near the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, but worries are high that it could be set to accelerate because of President Donald Trump's tariffs. A better-than-expected report Friday on sentiment among U.S. consumers also helped drive yields higher. The preliminary report from the University of Michigan said sentiment improved for the first time in six months after Trump put many of his tariffs on pause, while U.S. consumers' expectations for coming inflation eased. On Wall Street, Adobe fell 5.3% even though the company behind Photoshop reported a stronger profit for the latest quarter than Wall Street expected. Analysts called it a solid performance but said investors may have been looking for some bigger revenue forecasts for the upcoming year. In currency trading early Monday, the U.S. dollar gained to 144.37 Japanese yen from 144.03 yen. The euro rose to $1.1537 from $1.1533. Sign in to access your portfolio
Associated Press
26 minutes ago
- Associated Press
Asian shares are mixed and oil prices advance as Israel-Iran crisis escalates
HONG KONG (AP) — Asian shares were mixed on Monday and oil prices extended gains on worries that escalating Iran-Israel tensions could disrupt the flow of crude around the world. U.S. benchmark crude oil added 20 cents to $73.18 per barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, gained 95 cents to $75.18 per barrel. In share trading, Tokyo's Nikkei 225 added 1.3% to 38,307.74, while the Kospi in Seoul gained 0.9% to 2,920.57. Chinese markets were little changed after data for May showed stronger consumer spending but weaker factory activity and investment. A 6.1% year-on-year jump in retail sales was offset but lower than expected growth in industrial output, which rose 5.8% from a year earlier. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.1% to 23,864.20 and the Shanghai Composite Index added less than 0.1% to 3,378.78. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.2% to 8,547.40. On Friday, oil prices jumped and stocks slumped after Israel's attack on Iranian nuclear and military targets. The S&P 500 sank 1.1% to 5,976.97. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.8% to 42,197.79, and the Nasdaq composite lost 1.3% to 19,406.83. The strongest action was in the oil market, where the price of a barrel of benchmark U.S. crude and Brent crude, the international standard surged more than 7%. Iran is one of the world's major producers of oil, though sanctions by Western countries have limited its sales. If a wider war erupts, it could slow the flow of Iran's oil to its customers and keep the price of crude and gasoline higher for everyone worldwide. Beyond the oil coming from Iran, analysts also pointed to the potential for disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a relatively narrow waterway off Iran's coast. Much of the world's oil that's been pulled from the ground moves through it on ships. Companies that use a lot of fuel as part of their business and need their customers feeling confident enough to travel suffered some of the sharpest losses. Cruise operator Carnival dropped 4.9%. United Airlines sank 4.4%, and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings fell 5%. They helped overshadow gains for U.S. oil producers and other companies that could benefit from increased fighting between Israel and Iran. Exxon Mobil rose 2.2%, and ConocoPhillips gained 2.4% because the leaping price of crude portends bigger profits for them. Contractors that make weapons and defense equipment also rallied. Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman and RTX all rose more than 3%. The price of gold climbed as investors searched for safer places to park their cash. An ounce of gold added 1.4% on Friday and was holding steady early Monday. Prices for Treasury bonds will likewise rise when investors are feeling nervous, but Treasury prices fell Friday, which in turn pushed up their yields, in part because of worries that a spike in oil prices could drive inflation higher. Inflation has remained relatively tame recently, and it's near the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, but worries are high that it could be set to accelerate because of President Donald Trump's tariffs. A better-than-expected report Friday on sentiment among U.S. consumers also helped drive yields higher. The preliminary report from the University of Michigan said sentiment improved for the first time in six months after Trump put many of his tariffs on pause, while U.S. consumers' expectations for coming inflation eased. On Wall Street, Adobe fell 5.3% even though the company behind Photoshop reported a stronger profit for the latest quarter than Wall Street expected. Analysts called it a solid performance but said investors may have been looking for some bigger revenue forecasts for the upcoming year. In currency trading early Monday, the U.S. dollar gained to 144.37 Japanese yen from 144.03 yen. The euro rose to $1.1537 from $1.1533.
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Middle East and Fed meeting top investor worries
Middle East and Fed meeting top investor worries originally appeared on TheStreet. When stocks sell off abruptly, as they did on Friday, many investors start thinking there may be a bargain and look to buy Buying the dip often works. It worked big-time after the 10% sell-off of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index after President Trump released his tariff plan on April 2. Through Friday, the index is up 23.6% from its April low of 4,835.04. 💵💰💰💵 If the S&P 500 had just been unchanged on Friday, the gain would be 25%. In fact, the major U.S. indexes would have ended the week up at least 0.5% if they'd ended Friday unchanged. Instead, the selloff wiped out the week's gains. The results for the week: S&P 500. Friday close: 45,977, down 0.4%. Dow Jones Industrial Average. Friday close: 42,198, down 1.2%. Nasdaq Composite. Friday close: 19,407, down 0.7%. Nasdaq-100. Friday close: 21631, down 0.7%. Russell 2000. Friday close: 2,101, down 1.2%.So, is a buy-the-dip shot possible this week? Possibly just because Friday's slump was pretty violent thanks to the Middle East crisis and a weak consumer confidence report from the University of Michigan. Just before 8 p.m. ET Sunday, futures trading suggested dip buyers are already at work, even as the shooting war between Israel and Iran doesn't look like it's ready to stop yet. That may explain why gains so far are modest. Through Sunday. Israel was attacking as many sites as possible trying destroy military and scientific facilities as well as Iranian leadership. Iran was shooting many missiles all over Israel. Some 200 Iranians are known dead, news reports say, including seven key military leaders and 9 top nuclear scientists. At the same time, at least 13 Israeli citizens have died in the missile a truce can be reached, but the potential is sizable for really bad things to happen such as: Nuclear weapons get fired. Israel attacks Iran's key oil terminal at Kharg Island. Iran could block off the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global markets for crude oil and liquified natural gas. Still, one can hope. A buy-the-dip rally happened in 1991 in the first Gulf War,. It was apparent that Iraq, which had invaded Kuwait, would be overwhelmed and pushed out by an overwhelmingU.S.-led coalition of troops. A cease-fire was agreed to on Feb. 28. Stocks plunged on the first news of coalition bombings on Jan. 10, but then the S&P 500 surged 18.6% in the next 28 trading sessions without a single down day. The index ended the year up 26.3%. Anyone trying to profit on dip-buying, however, must also keep in mind: It's a good idea to expect higher oil prices after Friday's 7% gain to $72,98 a barrel. Crude oil was up more than $2 a barrel in futures trading Sunday. Some stocks have become pricey, including Oracle () , up 23.7% last week alone. But its relative strength index is at 89, which is a signal the shares are now wildly overvalued. All this is said in the light of the continued uncertainty about U.S. trade policy. The Trump Administration has been trying to impose a new trade regime as quickly as possible, but new agreements with other nations are slow in coming. Meanwhile, it is a light week for earnings reports and only the Federal Reserve meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday as key events to watch. U.S. markets are scheduled to be closed Thursday for the Juneteenth Holiday. What happens at the Fed may cause some volatility. President Trump keeps demanding that the central bank cut its key federal funds rate, now at 4% to 4.25%.A new idea is to name a successor to Chairman Jerome Powell, whose term expires next spring, in hopes that Powell will resign now. So far, the Fed and Powell have resisted saying there's too much uncertainty in the economy. Fund manager buys and sells See a big stock rally ahead? Be patient, money manager says Fund manager, skeptical of AI, backs shocking stock Veteran fund manager sends surprising message on the weak dollar Earnings this week will start with home builder Lennar () , one of the nation's biggest, whose business has been struggling from 30-year mortgage rates at just under 7%. In the first quarter, the company spending 13% of sales just buying to down initial mortgage payments to close sales. Earnings are estimated at $2.60 per share, down 23.1% from a year ago. Revenue is predicted at $8.55 billion, down 2.5% from a year ago. The big day is Friday when consulting giant Accenture () reports third-quarter results before the bell. The company's future has been roiled by the Doge efforts to chop federal spending. The company warned in its second-quarter analyst call that sales and profits would probably drop because of the Doge cuts. Shares are down 11.3% year to date and 22% from an intraday peak of $385.35 on Feb. 5. Accenture still has a market cap of nearly $200 billion. Along with Accenture, supermarket giant Kroger () will also report. Revenue is expected to be down slightly at $45.2 billion. Earnings are seen rising 7.8% to $1.54. Shares are up 7.2% on the year at $65.66. They were even up 0.8% on Friday. Used-car giant CarMax () also reports on Friday, with earnings expected at $1.27, up nearly 30% from a year ago. The revenue estimate is $7.46 billion, up nearly 5%. The shares are down 20.5% African-based Gold producer Gold Fields () , before Tuesday's open. Tech component maker Jabil Inc. () , before Tuesday's open. Management consulting firm Korn Ferry () , before Wednesday's open. Gun-manufacturer Smith & Wesson Brands () , after Wednesday's close. Restaurant operator Darden Restaurants () , before Friday's East and Fed meeting top investor worries first appeared on TheStreet on Jun 16, 2025 This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jun 16, 2025, where it first appeared. 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