Long-term damage from Nankai Trough megaquake estimated to be $10 trillion

NHK

11-06-2025

Japanese experts estimate that long-term economic damage from an anticipated massive earthquake in the Nankai Trough off Japan's Pacific coast could reach 1,466 trillion yen, or about 10 trillion dollars.
The Japanese government released new damage estimates on the megaquake in March of this year.
It said the costs of structural rebuilding, together with production declines at impacted businesses, add up to 270.3 trillion yen, or about 1.8 trillion dollars.
Economic losses during the year after the disaster, including severed roads and railways, would total some 292 trillion yen, or about 2 trillion dollars.
A panel of the Japan Society of Civil Engineers estimated the effects of the megaquake on economic activity over the ensuing approximately 20 years.
Damage to assets would total 225 trillion yen, or about 1.5 trillion dollars, and economic damage -- an assessment of long-term decline in economic activity -- would total 1,241 trillion yen, or about 8.5 trillion dollars.
The panel's figure is more than five times the government estimate in March, and an increase of 56 trillion yen, or about 380 billion dollars, from the panel's previous estimate in 2018.
The panel explains that it took into account the results of analyses of production recovery after the Great East Japan Earthquake, and recent price hikes.
The estimate does not include the impact of post-quake reconstruction projects.
The panel stresses the importance of preparatory measures, noting that 31 percent of the economic damage could be avoided if more than 58 trillion yen, or about 400 billion dollars, were spent on making infrastructure quake-resistant over roughly a decade.