Why investors shouldn't try to be a 'hero' in this economy, analyst says

CNBC

2 hours ago

Data suggests the U.S. economy may be in a precarious spot — and investors may be wise not to take outsized risks with their portfolios for fear of steep losses, experts said.
"This is not the environment to be a hero in," Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, wrote this month in a newsletter.
In other words: Stick to your long-term investment plan, including an appropriate asset allocation and time frame to reach your goals, experts said. Avoid the temptation to funnel a big chunk of money into high-flying shiny objects like individual technology stocks or cryptocurrency, they said.
"You need to own a basket of quality assets and investments, hold your breath and let markets do their work," Cox said in an interview with CNBC.
To be sure, this is sound perennial advice typically offered by financial planners.
But some market-watchers caution that economic headwinds could serve up ample volatility in the coming months.
"I think there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic, but also cautious at the same time," said Winnie Sun, co-founder of Sun Group Wealth Partners, based in Irvine, California, and a member of CNBC's Financial Advisor Council.
The job market appears to have weakened considerably, for example.
Employers in the public and private sectors added 35,000 jobs, on average, over the past three months, according to federal data.
Job growth from May to July is happening at a "pace you normally see around or in recessions," Cox wrote.
It's also down from average monthly growth of 123,000 jobs during the same three-month period of 2024, and from 111,000 in the first three months of 2025.
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The size of the U.S. labor force has declined for three consecutive months, which hasn't happened since 2011, Cox wrote.
"The job market is in a precarious spot after months of slowing consumer spending," Cox wrote. "The American consumer drives the economy, and the economy ultimately drives the direction of markets," she added.
Economists also worry about inflation reigniting as tariffs levied by the Trump administration work their way into higher prices for consumer goods and services.
There have been some signs of that in recent months, and many economists expect that inflationary pressure to bite harder in coming months.
Despite these headwinds, experts say the economy isn't in dire shape. The stock market has also continued to march to new highs, with the S&P 500 stock index up about 10% since the start of the year.
Many of Sun's clients have shown urgent interest in artificial intelligence and crypto amid lofty returns, versus more bread-and-butter long-term planning, she said.
Shares in tech giants like Meta, Microsoft and Nvidia are up about 34%, 24% and 36%, respectively, this year, for example. Bitcoin prices are also up over 25%.
It's a "hurry-up-and-invest" mindset, Sun said.
"A lot of people are feeling like they'll be left behind," she said. "But we don't feel like we have the full picture yet on where the U.S. is economically."
Tariff policy has whipsawed in recent months, leaving markets and investors grasping for answers as new import duties are announced, delayed or rescinded in a rapid-fire fashion, according to market-watchers.
"Right now, we feel it's best to stick with diversified and long-term plans," Sun said.
"A lot of the decisions being made right now are not financially driven," she said. "I think it's much more emotions-driven."
Sun advises investors to be well-diversified, and avoid the temptation to over-allocate their portfolio to growth-oriented sectors like technology. Having a well-diversified portfolio diversifies risks in the event lackluster economic data send markets tumbling, she said.
Exchange-traded funds or mutual funds, which are baskets of several different securities like stocks and bonds overseen by professional asset managers, can help the average investor stay diversified, she said.
ETFs often carry relatively low fees compared with mutual funds, and so can offer a cheap way to diversify.
Rebalancing more frequently in this environment is "key," Cox said.
That entails ensuring your asset allocation hasn't been thrown out of whack if certain segments of your portfolio outperform or underperform for a period of time.
"You never want to hit a market selloff and be more exposed to it than you think," Cox said.
Jacob Manoukian, U.S. head of investment strategy, at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, cautions that taking too much risk off the table could also have adverse outcomes for investors.
Companies continue to have strong corporate earnings despite some relatively weak economic data — a dynamic that can persist for a while, he said.
"It's hard to give advice to reduce risk substantially when corporate earnings are as strong as they are," Manoukian said.
"When companies are surprising to the upside to that degree, we'd encourage investors and our clients to have the right amount of risk for their plan and not reduce risk unduly — that's a way to underperform," Manoukian said.