These 6 players are seeking a new NFL contract — will that boost their fantasy football performance in 2025?
An old fantasy football theory is that players perform better when they are heading into the last year of their contract. A couple of summers ago, the great Brandon Niles did an in-depth analysis of this phenomenon to assess if it held up — you can read it here. Today, I will be adding the information we know about the 2024-25 NFL season to that data in order to identify potential contract-year gems for this upcoming fantasy football season.
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Recap: Does the contract-year bump exist?
Here's a TLDR on what Brandon took away from looking at contract year data from 2015 to 2022:
Quarterbacks: Younger quarterbacks heading into contract years tend to see a jump in production, while older contract-year quarterbacks do not as they are typically journeymen or close to the end of their careers.
Running backs: Certain running backs have excelled in contract years, but situation and volume tend to be far better indicators of success than contract status.
Wide receivers: Receivers experienced the biggest jumps in production during their contract years. Most successful contract-year receivers were in stable situations (safe depth chart position, continuity in the offense, etc.)
Tight ends: There is a smaller sample size for tight ends compared to the other positions, but contract-year tight ends' success is more closely tied to opportunity than anything else.
Overall, contract-year status isn't a stand-alone indicator of whether a player will be productive in fantasy or not. It is best used as a tiebreaker when deciding between two players to draft.
Contract-Year Players from 2024
Quarterbacks
Let's first take a look at how contract-year players performed last season to see if our rules still make sense. Note that in the tables below, I did not include players who were given a contract extension during the season (like Dak Prescott) or cut after the season ended (like Aaron Rodgers).
Contract-Year QB Performance, 2024. (Chart by 4for4.com)
Darnold sticks out as a perfect contract year leap example. 2024 was essentially a make-or-break year for Darnold's career, as if he struggled as the Vikings' starter he likely would not have been a starting QB again. Instead, Darnold threw for over 4,300 yards and 35 touchdowns as the overall QB9 in fantasy, and was rewarded with a 3-year, $100.5 million contract from the Seahawks in the offseason. Darnold fits nicely alongside Baker Mayfield, Daniel Jones and other younger QBs who saved their careers in a contract year after a rough start. Wilson and Fields are a unique case because they split time together as the starter in Pittsburgh, but both of them played well enough in their reps to earn a deal as the starter elsewhere (Wilson with the Giants, Fields with the Jets).
Running Backs
Contract-Year RB Performance, 2024. (Chart by 4for4.com)
The 'middle class' of running backs in the NFL is in a weird spot. In years past, a player like Rico Dowdle would have been immensely rewarded for his 2024 breakout season. After entering the season with less than 400 career rush yards, Dowdle stepped up as the Cowboys' starting RB and ran for 1,079 yards, adding 249 through the air. But, Dowdle did not have much of a market at all in free agency, and signed just a 1-year, $6.25 million contract with the Panthers and will split time with Chuba Hubbard next season. Similarly, Najee Harris ran for 1,000 yards for the fourth consecutive year in his age-26 season, but only received a 1-year, $5.25 million contract from the Chargers, who went on to draft running back Omarion Hampton in the first round.
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Because of the replaceability of running backs compared to other positions, teams have realized they are better off drafting an inexpensive rookie running back rather than paying a starter like Dowdle or Harris, who aren't elite. Moving forward, I think this means that contract-year running backs could become even more important to keep an eye out for, as several of them might truly be playing for their jobs as starters.
Wide Receivers
Contract-Year WR Performance, 2024. (Chart by 4for4.com)
It was a generally successful year for contract-year wideouts in 2024. Despite both of them tearing their ACLs halfway through the year, Chris Godwin and Stefon Diggs played well enough in limited time to earn multi-year deals in March. Higgins, after being on the franchise tag for two consecutive years, also put together a great season and earned a 4-year, $115 million extension with the Bengals. Godwin and Higgins' success reinforces the rule that contract-year WRs heavily benefit from situational stability.
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On the flip side, DeAndre Hopkins, Diontae Johnson and Amari Cooper all struggled after moving teams at least once during the regular season.
Tight Ends
Contract-Year TE Performance, 2024. (Chart by 4for4.com)
It's hard to say that Conklin and Johnson really made a leap in their contract year, as their production is almost perfectly aligned with their prior expectations. As a whole, tight ends continue to be a difficult position to project contract-year leaps with, mainly because their breakout schedules are much more random than other positions.
Potential Targets in 2025
Now, let's examine some players entering a contract year in 2025 and assess if they are potential candidates to make a leap and earn a lucrative new contract next spring.
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As you might have expected, a lot of these names come from the 2022 NFL Draft class, as this will be their fourth season in the league.
RBs: Breece Hall, Kyren Williams, Isiah Pacheco
Hall and Williams are similar to me in that they have shown plenty of signs that they can be a top-10 running back in the league, but need to put it together for one more season to earn an extension. Hall and Williams will need to fend off younger players who are coming for their jobs, as Braelon Allen (4th round) and Blake Corum (3rd round) were all drafted with the intent to at least share time with the starter. Corum has shown less than Allen so I expect Williams to be safe and steady in fantasy once again, but I would not be surprised if Hall is traded during the season if he gets off to a slow start.
Pacheco struggled last season and does not profile as an every-down starter, so I would not apply the running back contract bump rule to him.
WRs: George Pickens, Deebo Samuel Sr.
If I had to pick one player to experience the contract year leap this season, it would be Pickens. After getting traded to the Cowboys because the Steelers refused to give him the contract extension he desired, Pickens has a lot on the line in 2025. If he thrives in Dallas, he would be set up to receive a huge extension similar to Higgins' 4/115 number either from Dallas or another receiver-needy team in free agency. I absolutely love Pickens' fit with the Cowboys as the No. 2 next to CeeDee Lamb, and a healthy Dak Prescott should make this unit a top-10 offense at minimum. I would boost Pickens up in my rankings because of his contract status and actively pursue him in drafts.
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Samuel is set to be a free agent in 2026 after getting traded from the 49ers to the Commanders in the offseason. This season will be a major inflection point for Samuel's career, as he has shown serious signs of decline playing through various injuries in 2023 and 2024. If Samuel can bounce back to something close to his 2021 form, it would extend the 29-year-old's career by at least a few more seasons. Samuel should slot in nicely as the No. 2 receiver next to Terry McLaurin in an electric Commanders offense, and there is also room for him to get touches as a running back as Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler aren't nearly as formidable threats as Christian McCaffrey was.
Fully healthy for the first time in a while, Samuel is a great lottery ticket in fantasy this season who is worth applying the contract year boost to.
TE: Kyle Pitts
Pitts is a 2021 first-round pick who had his fifth-year option picked up, but we still aren't sure if he belongs as a starter in the league. For seemingly the fifth straight year, Pitts should be in a position to succeed in Atlanta. The Falcons' offensive upside as a whole is higher than previous years, with Michael Penix Jr. showing flashes in limited action last season, and Pitts could very well be the No. 2 or No. 3 option in the passing attack behind Drake London and Darnell Mooney. I fully understand being wary of Pitts after all the times he has hurt fantasy managers, but if there was ever a season to break out, it would be this one.
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The Bottom Line
Players entering the final year of their contract have mixed results in fantasy football. Generally, contract-year status should be used as a tiebreaker when deciding between two players instead of the end-all be-all deciding factor.
Looking at 2024 data helped clarify the factors that go into a successful contract-year season.
This year, there are several potential contract-year leaps to watch out for, namely from George Pickens, Deebo Samuel Sr., Breece Hall and Kyle Pitts.
This story originally appeared in its full form on 4for4.com.
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