If the Switch 2 Stumbles, Nintendo Has No Plan B

Bloomberg

30-03-2025

The Japanese gaming giant is about to release its latest console. The stakes have never been higher to end the boom-bust cycle that's plagued the company for years.
Nintendo Co.'s newest console, the Switch 2, will go on sale sometime in 2025. It's the first major hardware release in more than eight years for the company that became synonymous with videogames. And the fate of Nintendo as a whole could rest on the device being a hit.
With more than 150 million units sold since its launch in 2017, the first Switch is set to go down as Nintendo's best-selling device ever. The hybrid machine, which can be played on a TV at home or as a portable handset, has generated some $100 billion in sales and propelled Nintendo's shares to record highs.
The Switch was so successful, partly because it replaced two existing devices: the Wii line of home consoles and the DS line of handhelds. But that merge also created a concentration risk. Because if the Switch 2 falters, there's no other console to fall back on. And now, the maker of the Mario series must do what it has rarely done before: follow one hit console with another.
There's little room to get this wrong. To a degree that is uncommon among its rivals, Nintendo is hugely dependent on the success of this one device. Sony Group Corp., maker of the PlayStation, is a diversified conglomerate that manufactures semiconductors, offers insurance and licenses music. For Microsoft Corp., Xbox hardware is little more than a rounding error compared with its cloud and software businesses. Other tech firms like Apple Inc. release products much more frequently, often on a yearly basis.
Not Nintendo. The firm built its brand on a philosophy of thinking differently. The company's late president Satoru Iwata, before the launch of the Switch, once advocated a strategy of surprising gamers rather than relying on upgrading existing hardware with flashier graphics and faster loading times.
But this desire to do things differently has also sometimes led the firm down dead ends. It handcuffed the GameCube with lower-capacity discs instead of DVDs and gave the 3DS an innovative-but-gimmicky, glasses-free three-dimensional screen.
For gamers, this has always been part of Nintendo's charm. The fact that the company often seems to outright refuse to do the sensible-but-boring thing has given us innovations that have changed the industry forever. When the consensus among industry-watchers was that dedicated hardware was dying and Nintendo should shift to mobile, the company took the opposite approach, putting all its eggs in the Switch basket. But for shareholders, the strategy has, at times, been maddening.
Ahead of the full reveal on April 2, little has been disclosed about the Switch 2, beyond the name and familiar shape, which looks a lot like the original machine. In the absence of a new hardware innovation or a new way of playing, like motion controls, is sticking a '2' at the end enough for the next Switch? Can it balance offering a familiar product with gamers' desire for new experiences?
To continue growing sales and profits, Nintendo simply has to make this device a hit. Despite forays into theme parks, movies and mobile games, the firm is still dependent on its game devices to drive nearly all of its revenue.
With more than 70% of games sold on Switch created by Nintendo itself, a successful device can reap record profits. The company has a moat in the games industry that almost no one can replicate. It also rarely discounts its software. All that contributes to a feedback loop in which a hit console becomes a license to print money. In fiscal 2024 alone, Nintendo sold more than 8 million units of Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, a game first released more than a decade ago for the Wii U. If you count the Switch too, the company has sold more than 75 million units to date — and the game still retails at the full price of $60.
The transition to new hardware is the riskiest time for a console-maker. Whereas a device like Apple's iPhone has a staggered, annual release cycle, with support extended across multiple generations and players nudged to upgrade every few years, each new Nintendo machine resets the user base to zero.
With the Switch 2, the company has to find a way out of the boom-bust cycle and create users who stick with its devices. With services like Nintendo Music, a streaming app that plays soundtracks from its catalog of games, the company is already expanding its subscription offerings to keep users in its world.
Now, it must persuade those subscribers, and the millions of existing Switch users, to buy the new machine, while enticing younger generations to play for the first time. A strong library of games will be essential to avoid repeating a past mistake: its long history of failing to follow up one hit device with another.
Ironically, one reason the Switch was so successful was because the Wii U was such a flop. Nintendo all but abandoned the Wii U early in its life, diverting resources to the Switch. Because most of its audience had never played any Wii U games, it could shift or re-release titles to the new machine.
Nintendo Supercharged Switch With Existing Games
Blockbusters originally planned for the Wii U
Zelda: Breath of the Wild
Wii U: 1.9M units sold
Switch: 32.6M
Zelda: Breath of the Wild was originally scheduled to be a flagship title for Wii U. After several delays, it launched simultaneously on Switch and Wii U to critical acclaim.
Super Mario 3D World
Wii U: 5.9M units sold
Switch: 13.5M
Super Mario 3D World was a mainstay entry in the Mario series, launched on Wii U in 2013 and re-released on Switch in 2021.
Mario Kart 8
Wii U: 8.5M units sold
Switch: 67.5M
Mario Kart 8 was the best-selling title for the Wii U after its release in 2014. Deluxe, an upgraded version for Switch, would repeat the trick and continue to sell millions of units each year.
Nintendo can turn minor franchises into million-sellers on device sales alone. Mario Party, Luigi's Mansion and Splatoon have each had entries selling more than 10 million units. And nearly 70 of Nintendo's own games have sold over 1 million copies, with these first-party titles offering a better profit margin than those made by other publishers.
The Switch Launched Dozens of Hit Games
Million-seller video games published by Nintendo
Mario
Pokemon
Zelda
Other franchises
The Switch also benefited because Nintendo combined development teams that had previously developed games separately, the Switch had an unusually well-paced lineup of titles that constantly offered users something new.
The same needs to be true for the Switch 2, and the firm seems well aware of this risk.
'Until Nintendo Switch, there was no easy way to have consumers' purchase and gameplay histories carry over across platform generations,' President Shuntaro Furukawa said last year. 'As a result, our relationship with the consumers was interrupted when a new system was purchased.'
To combat this, Nintendo has pushed gamers to create accounts for its Switch Online service, which will be available on Switch 2, allowing users access titles they already own. And the new machine will also play existing Switch games.
The Switch 2's Likely Games
Mario Kart 9
The Switch 2 reveal trailer's only gameplay footage was of a Mario Kart -style game. Since the franchise is a proven best-seller without a brand-new installment since 2014, a sequel is a no-brainer.
A 3D Mario title
It has been eight years since Super Mario Odyssey, the last mainstream 3D Mario title. With the success of the plumber on the big screen and at Universal Studios theme parks, this gap probably won't grow much longer.
Zelda Remasters
Fans have been holding out for Switch versions of the Zelda titles Wind Waker and Twilight Princess, which both appeared in remastered form on the Wii U. And 2022's Tears of the Kingdom taxed the Switch to its limits — an enhanced version with a better frame rate and extra content would doubtless be a bestseller.
Metroid Prime 4
The latest entry in the sci-fi Metroid series has been in development in one form or another since at least 2017 and was recently confirmed to be coming to the original Switch in 2025. Will it also make the leap to Switch 2?
It's all part of the tightrope that Nintendo must walk to keep users onboard and persuade them to upgrade — no easy task as the risk of a slower global economy looms. The Switch 2 must be different but not too different. With zero debt and extensive cash reserves, Nintendo could likely weather a failure. But a Wii U-like failure would be a painful slip at a time when gamers have near-limitless alternatives, from Fortnite to Roblox.
The first thing it must get right with Switch 2 is the software. Millions bought a Switch on Day One to play Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild, a critical darling that won Game of the Year in 2017.
Nintendo is saving its biggest Switch 2 surprises — including when it will go on sale, and for how much — as it drums up excitement about the release. Persuading users to upgrade will be a fine balancing act. And getting it right will require a level of dexterity worthy of Mario himself.
Related tickers:
7974:JP (Nintendo Co Ltd)
NTDOY:US (Nintendo Co Ltd)
6758:JP (Sony Group Corp)
SONY:US (Sony Group Corp)
MSFT:US (Microsoft Corp)
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
To contact the authors of this story: Gearoid Reidy at [e-mail] and Taylor Tyson at [e-mail]
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Ruth Pollard at [e-mail]
Console illustrations by 731
Dinkus illustation: 731; Oleh Kuzminskyi via Getty Images