The middle ground: Swing geographies and demographics

Malaysiakini

a day ago

MP SPEAKS | Unfortunately, political debates in Malaysia often descend to just shouting matches among hardcore groups of different political hues.
More than a decade ago, in the lead-up to the 2013 general election, I published a book with the title 'Middle Malaysia: Centre Ground is Battle Ground'.
Barring the unusual collapse of the hardcore supporter groups, elections are won by those who manage to convince the swing voters.
Malaysia has 222 parliamentary seats, and 165 are in the peninsula. During GE15 in 2022, in mostly three-cornered fights, Pakatan Harapan won 71 seats, BN 23, and Perikatan Nasional 71.
Assuming that Harapan and BN will combine forces to face off PN in a straight fight, with Harapan and PN each having up to 45 'safe' seats while BN has 20-plus seats - which these coalitions are likely to secure - the next general election in the peninsula is really a battle of about 50 swing seats: Harapan and PN each has 20-odd seats to defend.
In a one-to-one battle, Harapan and BN will each contest much fewer seats than in previous elections, but are likely to have a more secure grip over the seats they have already won, compared with PN.
I am making the assumption that under such a scenario, given that GE15 was BN's worst outing, the seats it had already won are relatively secure if Harapan and BN are not contesting against each other.
The coming GE16 will likely be determined by the three 'swing geographies' and the six 'swing demographics':
Swing geographies
1. The Permatang Pauh cluster
There is a cluster of seats in Penang's Seberang Perai, Southern Kedah and Northern Perak similar to the Permatang Pauh demography, which has 65-75 percent Malay voters and a significant proportion of non-Malay voters.
In a straight fight between the Harapan-BN combo and PN, if the unity ticket could ensure a solid 40-50 percent Malay votes with high non-Malay support, and very importantly, higher turnout, these PN-held seats are all in play.
Since 2008, Harapan has consistently received around 40 percent Malay support in Selangor. The 'Selangor formula' is a good reference.
2. The Southern Perak-Northern Selangor cluster
There are some PN seats in this cluster which are winnable in a straight fight, and if there is a replication of the Selangor formula in these seats.
3. The Southern States compact
PAS and Bersatu have very little influence in the Southern States of Johor, Malacca and Negeri Sembilan.
If Harapan and BN could continue to work well together, the chances of keeping the vulnerable seats in these southern states held by Harapan and BN are high.
Managing coalition relations between Harapan and BN in the Southern States is arguably fundamental to the unity government's effort to secure the next term.
For instance, in Johor, where there are 26 parliamentary seats, Harapan won 15, BN nine, and PN two.
Securing what Harapan and BN won in GE15 means there are already 24 seats to contribute to the formation of the federal government.
Particular attention should be paid to secondary cities, small towns, and rural sectors of the Southern states.
These towns and villages have most of their young folks living in major cities but voting in their hometowns.
More often than not, government policies do not help enough of the lower strata of urban folks who are voting in these semi-urban/rural areas, as well as their families in semi-urban/rural areas.
This 'double whammy' policy blind spot has to be overcome.
Swing demographics
1. The Kerinchi sphere
Many Malay voters who vote in their hometowns but work in Klang Valley, Greater Johor Bahru, and the Penang-Kulim area, are living in 'vertical kampung' (flats and apartments).
The economic divide in the nation is not so much between Kuala Lumpur and Kota Bharu, but really between those who reside in Bangsar and Kerinchi, or between Sunway and the Mentari flats.
Understanding the political and social impacts and outcomes of housing, public transport, health and education policies, as well as labour market conditions on this group, is crucial in the election.
Economic security or 'raising the floor' for this group will have far-reaching consequences.
2. Malaysians in Singapore
There are 1.1 million Malaysians working in Singapore. They formed the most crucial swing bloc that tilted the balance for Harapan in 2013, 2018, and even 2022, especially during the 2022 parliamentary election in the Southern States.
The unity government must ensure that more Malaysians in Singapore feel that the Malaysian economy is improving, and that the wage gap between Malaysia and Singapore is narrowing, to the extent that some of them could choose to return to work in Malaysia at a wage that is acceptable, albeit lower than Singapore's.
The rule of thumb is that if the pay is close to two-thirds of the Singapore pay, a Malaysian would likely return to work in Malaysia.
It means the government will have to be very forceful in its overall labour market reform to raise the floor, especially by raising wages.
3. The restless youth
Reformasi in 1998 was supported by the youth, and Harapan's rise since 2008 was very much driven by the younger set of voters who were unhappy with the status quo.
But both Harapan and BN lost the youngest Malay cohorts to PN in GE15.
The unity government has been mindful of the possibility of an anti-establishment wave from the youth. But more has to be done.
Grievances from among the youth have to be understood and empathised with. A holistic youth policy agenda that weaves together jobs, TVET training, wages, housing, transport, health, etc is important.
Not having a new narrative on PTPTN by the next election could be problematic.
4. Women voters as kingmakers
All recent polls consistently show that more Malay women than their Malay male counterparts in the same age groups support the unity government.
But the unity government needs to sharpen this gender advantage through policy and political actions that uplift the women's livelihoods, especially helping to retain them in the job market over a much longer period.
Malaysia's female labour participation rate is the lowest among regional neighbours.
5. Civil servants
Harapan and BN did not gain an upper hand among the civil servants during GE15.
But through the efforts by the unity government, especially the most significant salary increment in more than a decade, some surveys showed that the civil servants have warmed up to Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and the unity government as they realise that those on the government bench are serious about governing, compared to those in the opposition.
PM Anwar Ibrahim
6. Workers
Workers have not been featured much in our political debates. Often, the interests of the workers are articulated from the perspectives of the employees.
But it is politically imperative for us to be reminded that each worker has a vote, and that workers' share of the economic pie is too small compared to workers in other regional economies, as identified by the Madani Economy Framework.
Embracing the interests of the workers and communicating in a political language that reassures them of economic security will help swing them.
There is a need to significantly reduce the number of unskilled foreign labour that suppress wages.
While there is still a while before the next general election will be called, understanding where the swing votes come from would help formulate better policies, which will in turn shape the outcomes of the election.
The battleground is still in the middle, and not among the fringes, no matter how loud they shout and scream.
LIEW CHIN TONG is the deputy minister for investment, trade, and industry, as well as the Iskandar Puteri MP.
The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of Malaysiakini.