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Indeed, the only punishment built into Trump's proposal would impose tariffs of 100% against Russia and its trading partners if the Kremlin does not accept a ceasefire soon. But those tariffs would only kick in after 50 days without a peace deal, leaving Russia enough time to continue its summer offensive in Ukraine, aiming to conquer four regions before the autumn rains make it more difficult for the invasion to move forward. If they succeed, Vladimir Putin would be able to claim victory rather than negotiating on Trump's terms.
'Putin will not negotiate as a loser,' one of his longtime associates tells TIME by phone from Moscow. 'He knows that winners don't get punished, and if he wins, all of this' — the sanctions, the tariffs — 'will go away.'
Even if the Russians fail over the next 50 days to conquer the territory Putin wants, the threatened tariffs of 100% would not be likely to dissuade him from pushing ahead into the fall. Trump's own allies on Capitol Hill had urged the White House to set tariffs at 500% on Russia and any country that buys its oil. The proposal, championed by Senator Lindsey Graham, was meant to stop India and China from financing Russia's military through the oil trade. The idea had broad bipartisan support, but last week the White House urged lawmakers to hold off, according to a source close to Senate leadership. 'Trump doesn't want it,' the source said, asking not to be named in order discuss the sensitive deliberations.
What Trump wanted became clear on Monday, when he presented a watered down version of Graham's proposal. Known as the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025, the bill had the support of more than 80 Senators, and Graham expressed confidence last week that it would soon pass. But on Monday, Trump seemed unsure whether the sanctions bill should move forward toward a vote. 'I'm not sure we need it,' he said.
The sense of relief was clear on the Moscow Stock Exchange, as traders absorbed Trump's latest threat. The main Russian stock index jumped by 2.7% and the ruble strengthened against the dollar on Monday. Apart from the 50-day grace period, Russian investors appeared to appreciate the fact that the White House tends to back away from its tariff threats as often as it makes them. 'Trump performed below market expectations,' one financial analyst in Moscow told Reuters, adding that the U.S. president 'likes to postpone and extend such deadlines.'
Trump's proposal may also have a deeper weakness—a failure to account for how much Putin has already wagered in Ukraine, and how much pain he is willing to suffer to avoid defeat. Three and a half years into the full-scale war, he has already sacrificed hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers, and Trump said on Monday that more than 5,000 of them continue to die every day. No sitting president in the world has faced more sanctions and international isolation than Putin has over the war in Ukraine. The International Criminal Court indicted him for war crimes in 2022, making it difficult for him to travel without the fear of arrest and extradition to the Hague.
'He's too deep into it now,' says Putin's associate in Moscow. 'He can't give up, and he's far from feeling like he is about to lose. On the contrary, he feels like he has the upper hand.'
Despite the plodding pace of the Russian advances and the enormous losses they have faced, Putin's troops have crept forward in recent months toward his goal of taking all of Ukraine's eastern regions. Nothing in the proposal Trump announced on Monday is likely to force Putin to abandon that objective.
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