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Calculated or cornered? Iran's dilemma after Trump's strikes
Iran is bound to respond after US airstrikes on its nuclear facilities over the weekend. Such attacks are expected to be multi-domain and not just military attacks.
The United States on Saturday attacked the Iranian nuclear sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan . Even as the extent of the damage is not clear, what is clear is that the United States is now party to the Israel-Iran war and an Iranian retaliation is only a matter of time.
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Iranian attacks against the United States are now 'inevitable' and 'will be swift and multi-layered based on the extent of damage caused by the US strikes', Ellie Geranmayeh, the Deputy Head of the Middle East and North Africa at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Bloomberg.
However, any Iranian retaliation would depend on the kind of escalation it can absorb and what capabilities remain — as Israel has taken down many Iranian missile launchers and weapons storage sites.
Geranmayeh further said, 'Iran knows it cannot win this war, but wants to ensure that the US and Israel also lose.'
Here are the many options that Iran may choose to respond to US strikes.
Iranian retaliatory strikes on US troops
The simplest way to respond would be to attack US interests in West Asia. Iran could do such attacks itself or tell its proxies to do such attacks.
The United States has around 40,000 troops in 20 bases in the region. Major US bases are located in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
US soldiers in smaller numbers are also deployed in Syria and Iraq and experts say that these soldiers and their bases are the most vulnerable to any strikes.
Iran may mount a calibrated response that may include strikes on US-linked infrastructure but not US troops themselves, Geranmayeh told Bloomberg.
Any Iranian strikes on US soldiers and bases would carry the risk of escalating the conflict, so experts say that Iran could telegraph such strikes so as to minimise the damage and make way for an off-ramp for both sides.
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Such a retaliation would be most likely, according to Bloomberg Economics Analyst Dina Esfandiary.
With such a telegraphed retaliation, Iran would tell the United States where and what it will strike with the likely lack of US deaths allowing the Donald Trump administration to have an off-ramp and impress upon Israel that it must stop its attacks, which could effectively leading to a ceasefire for all parties, Bloomberg quoted Esfandiary as saying.
Iranian cyber attacks
Iran has well-known cyberattack capabilities and it is expected deploy them against the United States as part of the broader retaliation.
The capabilities are such that, CyberAv3ngers, a group said to be linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), carries a $10 million reward.
Strait of Hormuz
Iran could block or disrupt the Strait of Hormuz. The consequence will be faced by the entire world and not just the United States and its allies.
The waterway carries around 20 per cent of the world's all oil and gas supplies.
Iran could mine the waterway and attacks ships passing through with boats and missiles. The blockage would mean that petroleum exporting nations dependent on the waterway would find their exports curtailed. Oil and gas prices are set to surge.
If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, global oil prices could reach $120 a barrel and US inflation could surge to 5 per cent, according to JPMorgan Chase.
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Iranian attacks on oil fields
In a less likely option, Iran may also strike oil fields of oil-producing countries in the region, which are mainly US allies and partners.
In 2019, Yemen's Houthis carried out drone and missile strikes on Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities and temporarily took down around half of the kingdom's oil production.
Iran may develop nuclear weapon
Beside all these options, the ultimate retaliation may be the development of the nuclear bomb.
Even as the United States struck three Iranian nuclear sites, the extent of the damage is not clear. There are also analyses that US strikes neither destroyed Iranian capabilities to enrich uranium completely nor stockpiles of near-weapons grade level uranium.
With its back to the wall and conventional deterrence eroded, Iran may very well decide to develop a nuclear weapon.
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