First-term government should be doing better, as Labour overtakes in new poll
She also said that Labour still had work to do to 'get it together', with the party yet to announce its team or policies.
Associate professor in politics at Victoria University Lara Greaves. Photo / Michael Craig
She said the big decider will be the economy – not just where it is at, but how people feel about the state of it this time next year and who they blame for it.
'[It's about] their evaluations of the economy and who caused what and who's at fault for what and, you know, Trump's the other thing that's concerning for any government.
'We can see anecdotally the Canadian and Australian elections affected by Trump, but political science research is starting to come out to show that, yes, Trump does have a huge effect on other democracies.'
On why Labour is remaining tight-lipped, Greaves said she believed they had internalised the idea that 'timing is everything'.
'The longer that the current government have knowing what that policy is going to be, the longer they can test and figure out how to peg something on them.
'But they're going to think of some way to really phrase the capital gains tax as affecting the middle class, as affecting New Zealanders and affecting the economy and paint Labour a certain way.'
Greaves believed it was 'quite unusual' for Chlöe Swarbrick to raise her hand for the Finance Minister's job. She believed the Greens were trying to take up as much airspace as possible before a capital gains tax announcement.
'Because I think once there is some kind of capital gains tax policy announcement from Labour, that's all we're really going to be talking about for a while.'
Speaking to Newstalk ZB's Mike Hosking this morning, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon dismissed the latest poll results, saying he does not want to speak about himself, and all Kiwis want is for National to fix the economy.
'I mean, I don't go into polls because every time there is a different poll every week in this country, and people don't want me to talk about myself or polls,' he told Hosking.
'I think the big trend is pretty obvious. People expect us to fix the economy. It's as simple as that. So fix it, and then in 2026, they'll make their call.'
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Otago Daily Times
5 minutes ago
- Otago Daily Times
Trump takes over DC police, deploys National Guard
US President Donald Trump said on Monday he was deploying 800 National Guard troops to Washington and temporarily taking over the city's police department, an extraordinary assertion of presidential power in the nation's capital. Trump's move, which bypassed the city's elected leaders, was emblematic of his second-term approach, which has seen him wield executive authority in ways with little precedent in modern US history and in defiance of political norms. The president cast his actions as necessary to "rescue" Washington from a purported wave of lawlessness. Statistics show that violent crime shot up in 2023 but has been rapidly declining since. "Our capital city has been overtaken by violent gangs and bloodthirsty criminals," Trump told a news conference at the White House. It is the second time this summer that the Republican president has deployed troops to a Democratically governed city. Trump sent thousands of National Guard troops to Los Angeles in June over the objections of state and local officials. And Trump signalled that other major US cities with Democratic leadership could be next, including Chicago, a city that has long been beset by violent crime, although it was down significantly in the first half of the year. "If we need to, we're going to do the same thing in Chicago, which is a disaster," Trump said at the White House, adding, "Hopefully LA is watching." Trump has shown particular interest in taking over Washington, which is under the jurisdiction of Congress but exercises self-governance under a 1973 US law. Hundreds of officers and agents from more than a dozen federal agencies, including the FBI, ICE, DEA and ATF, have fanned out across the city in recent days. Attorney General Pam Bondi will oversee the police force takeover, Trump said. The US Army said the National Guard troops would carry out a number of tasks, including "administrative, logistics and physical presence in support of law enforcement." Between 100 and 200 of the troops would be supporting law enforcement at any given time. The Democratic mayor of Washington, Muriel Bowser, has pushed back on Trump's claims of unchecked violence, saying the city is "not experiencing a crime spike" and highlighting that violent crime hit its lowest level in more than three decades last year. Violent crime, including murders, spiked in 2023, turning Washington into one of the nation's deadliest cities. However, violent crime dropped 35% in 2024, according to federal data, and it has fallen an additional 26% in the first seven months of 2025, according to city police. The city's attorney general, Brian Schwalb, called Trump's actions "unprecedented, unnecessary and unlawful" in an X post, and said his office was "considering all of our options." Bowser did not immediately comment on Trump's announcement, though other Democrats weighed in. "Donald Trump has no basis to take over the local police department. And zero credibility on the issue of law and order. Get lost," House of Representatives Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries wrote on X. TRUMP RAMPS UP RHETORIC Over the past week, Trump has intensified his messaging, suggesting he might attempt to strip the city of its local autonomy and implement a full federal takeover. The District of Columbia operates under the Home Rule Act, which gives Congress ultimate authority but allows residents to elect a mayor and city council. Trump said last week that lawyers are examining how to overturn the law, a move that would likely require Congress to revoke it. Trump on Monday invoked a section of the act that allows the president to take over the police force for 30 days when "emergency" conditions exist. Trump said he was declaring a "public safety emergency" in the city. Trump's own Federal Emergency Management Agency is cutting security funding for the National Capital Region, an area that includes D.C. and parts of Maryland and Virginia. The region will receive $20 million less this year from the federal urban security fund, amounting to a 44% year-on-year cut. Trump also vowed to remove homeless encampments, though he did not provide details on how or where homeless people would be moved. The federal government owns much of Washington's parkland, so the Trump administration has legal authority to clear homeless encampments in those areas, as President Joe Biden did while in office. But the federal government cannot force people to move out of the city because they lack shelter, advocates for the homeless said. TRIAL BEGINS A federal trial began on Monday in San Francisco on whether Trump violated US law by deploying 4,000 National Guard troops and 700 US Marines in Los Angeles without the approval of Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom. The troops were sent in response to protests over raids by federal immigration agents. State and local officials objected to Trump's decision as unnecessary, unlawful and inflammatory. The president has broad authority over the 2,700 members of the D.C. National Guard, unlike in states where governors typically hold the power to activate troops. Guard troops have been dispatched to Washington many times, including in response to the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol by a mob of Trump supporters. During his first term, Trump sent the National Guard into Washington in 2020 to help quash mostly peaceful demonstrations during nationwide protests over police brutality following the murder of George Floyd. Civil rights leaders and city leaders denounced the deployment.
NZ Herald
35 minutes ago
- NZ Herald
European leaders plan Ukraine talks with Trump before he meets Putin
Trump said he expected the meeting with Putin to be 'constructive' and expressed unhappiness with Zelenskyy for ruling out territorial concessions to Russia. 'I'm going to speak to Vladimir Putin and I'm going to be telling him 'you've got to end this war,'' Trump said at a White House press conference. As EU foreign ministers began an emergency meeting on Ukraine, Merz announced the initiative to keep Europe at the table. Merz's office said he would talk to leaders from 'Finland, France, the UK, Italy, Poland, Ukraine, the heads of the European Commission and Council, the secretary general of Nato, as well as the US president and his deputy'. According to Germany's Bild daily, a first conference call will include the European leaders, Zelenskyy, EU chief Ursula von der Leyen and Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte. This would be followed by a joint call with Trump and Vice-President JD Vance, the newspaper said. The idea of a US-Russia meeting without Zelenskyy has raised concerns that a deal could require Ukraine to cede swathes of territory, which the EU has rejected. Over the weekend, several European leaders pushed Trump to exert more pressure on Russia in a joint statement and warned that 'the path to peace in Ukraine cannot be decided without Ukraine'. 'Testing Putin' Before Monday's EU talks, Zelenskyy warned against capitulating to Putin's demands. 'Russia refuses to stop the killings, and therefore must not receive any rewards or benefits. And this is not just a moral position – it is a rational one,' Zelenskyy wrote in a statement published on social media. 'Concessions do not persuade a killer,' he added. Asked if Zelenskyy could be present at the Alaska summit, US ambassador to Nato Matthew Whitaker responded that 'yes, I certainly think it's possible'. 'Certainly, there can't be a deal that everybody that's involved in it doesn't agree to. And, I mean, obviously, it's a high priority to get this war to end.' The EU's top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, also said any US-Russia deal to end the war had to include Ukraine and the bloc. 'The US has the power to force Russia to negotiate seriously,' she said. 'Any deal between the US and Russia must have Ukraine and the EU included, for it is a matter of Ukraine's and the whole of Europe's security.' As a prerequisite to a peace settlement, the Kremlin has demanded Kyiv pull its forces out of several regions claimed by Moscow, commit to being a neutral state, shun US and EU military support and be excluded from joining Nato. Kyiv said it would never recognise Russian control over its sovereign territory, though it acknowledged that getting land captured by Russia back would have to come through diplomacy, not on the battlefield. Both sides have meanwhile stepped up aerial assaults, with Ukraine claiming to have hit a facility that produces missile components in Russia's Nizhny Novgorod region. Local authorities said one person was killed in the attack and two were wounded. Russia's defence ministry said on Monday its forces had captured the village of Fedorivka in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk. The village is northeast of the embattled towns of Pokrovsk and Myrnograd towards which Russia has been advancing. -Agence France-Presse
Scoop
an hour ago
- Scoop
Govt's Empty Words Do Nothing To Stop Genocide In Gaza
The Government's announcement that it will 'formally consider' Palestinian statehood in September simply continues to delay any meaningful action. 'If the Government believes what it says about a two-state solution, it can and must recognise Palestine statehood, immediately,' says Green Party co-leader, Chlöe Swarbrick. 'Palestinians cannot eat empty statements. 'Aotearoa has a proud history of standing up for human rights and justice, even when powerful allies disagree. Most UN member states already recognise Palestine. 'The Greens put forward a motion in Parliament to do this in 2021. National and ACT voted it down. Four years later, those same parties are tying their own hands to do the most basic things. 'The bare minimum New Zealanders should expect from their representatives is to put substance behind words. Last September, Aotearoa stood with 123 UN Member States to support a resolution calling for sanctions against those responsible for 'unlawful presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including in relation to settler violence.' 'The Greens have drafted a Bill to sanction Israel. The only thing in the way of this law passing, right now, is identifying just six out of 68 Government members willing to stand on the right side of history. 'Palestine needs our action. The people of this country have been mobilising every week for two years demanding it. Luxon's Government can and must act - they are the only thing standing in their own way,' says Chlöe Swarbrick.
