Unseeing warning signs: choosing fatal outcomes?
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Jinnah saw a macabre future for his founded refuge for some Muslims of India; not only has it come to pass, worse still lies ahead.
No words can describe the suffering dumped on Pakistan not by outsiders but by choosing of her own people under the cover of messianic mantra "country is saved, better days ahead" — authors of past failures claiming to fix it. This noble idea began in 1948; undeterred by adverse outcomes, still the same creed of authors pretending this time problem will go away.
There are no mere coincidences in this world. Predicting outcomes of choices is not rocket science; even in infants cause-and-effect reasoning emerges by age of 27 weeks (Leslie et al., 1987), yet complex forecasting demands deliberate analysis (Salcedo et al., 2008).
Human actions, once created carve their own paths of consequences (intended or unintended), and can neither be recreated because past cannot be undone, nor can it be erased. Outcomes, however, can be immediate or delayed — always preceded by warning signs. If created reality is to be remedied, then it demands new actions that enact new outcomes. Thus, cycle continues until death ends our existence on this planet.
At individual level, we can trace our decisions' trajectories and warning signs until consequences strike. At national level, stakes multiply exponentially. Legislation and policy choices demand debate, negotiation and compromise, with consequences lasting generations for country and its citizens.
This parallel becomes profound as PakRaj nexus (British Loyalist Feudal-Military-Bureaucracy) unjustifiably captured Pakistan after Jinnah's death. Reality behind their smokescreen has been pushing country deeper into bund-gali, marked with decades of institutional and governance failures, incompetence, corruption and a very weak judiciary, unable to uphold constitution or safeguard rights.
Our devastating story can be quantified through global rankings, and these brutal metrics are purposely and brazenly rejected – not in an exercise of logic but an aura of power.
Socio-developmental indicators signal a crisis leaning towards collapse: Bottom-tier placement, in Knowledge, Development, Sustainable Goals and Gender Gap Index. Nearly half the population lives in poverty, and multidimensional poverty grips a third. Pakistan's global brand and passport outlook is pitiful.
Ironically, our current mantra to prosperity via digital/IT sector, is through pitfalls, as we are labeled "weak performer" due to crippling gaps in education, innovation, ICT and research (Knowledge Index: 120/141). Huawei's Digitization Index (68/77) brands us a "starter". With education spending below 2% of GDP, this "better days ahead" story will crumble.
Most alarming for Pakistan is the status evaluated by Fragile States Index (FSI). Since 2006, FSI has tracked stability using 12 indicators (1 = stable, 10 = unstable) across 4 dimensions. Our 2024 placement (27/179) reveals interlocking vulnerabilities:
Cohesion Dimension:
Security Apparatus 7.9: Precarious security, evident in daily terrorist attacks (Balochistan and KP). Factionalised Elites 9.3: Wealth concentrated in elite hands, citizens left impoverished. Group Grievance 9.0: Marginalised communities — Baloch, Saraiki, Shia, Mohajirs — fueling grievances and wearing down cohesion.
Economic Dimension:
Economic Decline 8.0: Low GDP growth rates, population expansion (2.7%), youth unemployment, investment dwindles, debt reaches Rs7.6 trillion (BTI-2024 rank 112/137, very weak country). Uneven Development 5.0: Resources are monopolised by PakRaj while public lacks basic health, education and economic opportunities. Brain Drain 5.5: Elite controls gainful employment, middle classes stagnate, masses stuck in menial jobs while skilled manpower leaves country.
Political Dimension:
State Legitimacy 8.0: Severely eroded by disputed elections, contradictory court rulings and rushed legislation. Public Services 7.6: Crumbling infrastructure, strained public services, limited social safety net. Human Rights 7.8: Marked by enforced disappearances, media suppression, judicial decay. (BTI labels Pakistan "hardline autocracy" – Political Transformation Index at 99/137).
Social Dimension:
Demographic Pressure 7.8: Unchecked population growth (2.7%, region's highest), rapid urban migration, especially into Karachi, threatening civic breakdown. IDPs and Refugees 7.3: Refugees still burden state, while flood-affected citizens remain unsettled. External Intervention 8.4: After last year shocking violence, it worsened this year; so far 502 strikes leaving 737 dead and 991 injured (PICSS 2025), while in June alone, there were 78 incidents – 100 killed and 189 wounded.
Unfortunately, grievances are climbing "escalation ladder" toward broader armed conflict in restive provinces — fertile ground for exploitation by India and others. Once again, existential threat comes from within, not outside, weirdly reminiscent of East Pakistan (1971).
Why? Because State (Legislature, Government, Judiciary) is once more failing its people, particularly in troubled regions, where security operations persist. Relabeling and empowerment of existing security apparatus, apparently, is an admission that use of force isn't working. Yet, it has been made clear that restive areas will be coerced into submission. Gaza — a grim reminder of where such policies lead.
What's needed are methodical efforts by state to remedy root causes through establishment of national commissions for healing past wounds and charting a new future for Jinnah's Pakistan — based on Truth, Justice, Equity and Reconciliation (as done in South Africa, Brazil, Canada, Morocco). Sadly, state remains unresponsive. GoP's commission on disappearances formed under pressure of court in March 2011, remained ineffective.
PakRaj rule cannot be questioned for now! They borrowed legitimacy from Jinnah (only his words and portrait remain) having rejected his 1948 reforms: feudal dismantling, military restraint, meritocracy in bureaucracy, and visions for education, industrialisation, poverty alleviation and empowerment of middle classes. Still valid today!
Meanwhile, country's poor ranking in governance and corruption never becomes a core national issue — neither for the nexus nor for political parties. Why? No one self-incriminates.
It pains me to cite FSI, but decades of misrule have branded Pakistan a global "fragile state", like a warning on a cigarette pack. Signs are clear; data is unequivocal. Still, future choices remain ours. Without course correction, slow-burn fatal breakdowns loom — further ruin of Iqbal's dream and Jinnah's Pakistan.
Our perils, as individuals or a nation, are captured in an axiom: Jaisa karoge, waisa bharoge. Is any other outcome possible?
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