Punching above our weight — on an IV drip

Business Recorder

10-07-2025

Diplomatic optics don't usually favour countries still dancing around the possibility of sovereign default. And yet here we are — on an IMF lifeline, with next to no foreign exchange cover and a political setup too timid to lead — watching Pakistan make a sustained play on the global stage with more success than many would care to admit.
Just this week, the Chief of Staff of the People's Liberation Army Air Force, Lieutenant General Wang Gang, visited Air Headquarters in Islamabad and praised the Pakistan Air Force's performance in the recent war with India as 'a textbook example of precision, discipline, and courage' in the face of unprovoked aggression.
This came within days of Army Chief Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir meeting US President Donald Trump at the White House — an unusually high-profile one-on-one between a Pakistani military leader and an American president. Trump praised Pakistan's efforts to de-escalate the recent war with India and said progress was also being made on the trade front.
The meeting stood in sharp contrast to India's heavily publicised diplomatic visit a little earlier which climaxed with a photo op with Vice President JD Vance – no White House invite.
And the balancing act didn't end there. China's warmth and America's unexpected openness followed the widely reported, if not officially confirmed, suggestion that Pakistan played a quiet but effective part in brokering a ceasefire in the Iran-Israel war. The claim — originating in Middle Eastern press — gained traction after both sides stood down with minimal external mediation, and with Islamabad condemning Israeli actions while carefully steering clear of antagonising Washington. Even if indirect, the timing raised eyebrows.
This is not how struggling economies typically behave. And yet, Pakistan has managed to follow a tactical military victory — against a rival more than five times its size — with a flurry of effective diplomacy. Its post-war outreach, particularly with multilateral groups, has also delivered. India's push to include its version of the Pahalgam attack in final communiqués at SCO, BRICS, and QUAD summits was unsuccessful, which in diplomatic terms is a win for Pakistan — especially since silence, in such venues, rarely comes without consensus.
Some might call it luck. Others, opportunism. But for anyone paying attention, a more plausible explanation lies in the state's real command structure. If — as everybody knows — the fountainhead of Pakistani policymaking in this Islamic Republic remains its military high command, then it is worth analysing how it has played its cards in one of the most delicate moments in the country's modern history.
Because there is no elected civilian consensus on foreign policy. There is barely a functioning civilian apparatus at all. No parliamentarian spoke of recalibrating alliances after the Iran-Israel war. No elected representative gave a vision for how to manage the US-China rivalry. Yet the Pakistan army has somehow positioned the country in a rare space where both Washington and Beijing are listening.
It may not follow any diplomatic playbook, but it is delivering the strangest results. And in power politics, showing up — consistently, visibly — often matters more than protocol. Make what you will of that.
Of course, there is something unnerving about all this. A country with no money, weak institutions, and a paralysed political structure has no business threading needles between competing superpowers. And yet, it is doing just that — with surprising nerve.
To be fair, some of this is circumstantial. The global environment is fractured. The US-China trade war is escalating again, disrupting supply chains, rattling financial markets, and inching toward a phase where countries may be forced to take sides. The Middle East remains unsettled. And many capitals are searching for stable diplomatic anchors in an increasingly unpredictable order. Pakistan, for all its internal contradictions, is at least projecting coherence on the world stage — even if that coherence wears military uniform.
But hedging is not a long-term strategy. At some point, someone will demand clarity. A pledge. A pivot. And when that moment comes, it will test not just Pakistan's strategic balance, but its internal stability as well. Because hedging between powers is a luxury when you are solvent. When you're not, it becomes a risk you cannot afford to miscalculate. And we need both Chinese and American money to stay afloat.
Until then, this is where we are: punching above our weight while still hooked up to the financial equivalent of a ventilator. And whatever else one might say about the structure that has enabled it — from shadow policymaking to absent civilian leadership — there is something undeniably impressive about the sheer audacity of it all.
After all, in a year when even major powers are floundering to maintain their alliances, Pakistan has somehow emerged as a case study in diplomatic over-achievement.
Whether it's sustainable, sensible, or simply absurd, depends on where — and when — you're standing.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2025