Will the US-EU Tariff Worsen the Luxury Slowdown?
Reeling from a year of disappointing earnings reported by major luxury groups, includingLVMH,Kering, and others, the tariff will only increase pressure on the price hikes brands have relied on to subdue losses.
Analysis from RBC shows that luxury brands already increased prices by roughly33%between 2019 and 2023 — an optimistic period that resulted in boosted revenues. However, since 2024, a slowdown in luxury spending has been facilitated by global economic uncertainty and shifting geopolitical relations.
By September 2024, the slowdown became apparent withGucci, once Kering's cash cow, seeing revenues drop 20% inH1 2024, andLouis Vuittonowner LVMH's net profits falling 22% across all of its brands in the same period. This week, asH1 2025results emerge, Kering reports that net profit dropped 46% — pointing to Gucci's underperformance — and LVMH reports that net profit slid by22%. The latest numbers indicate that luxury isn't out of the woods yet, and things may get even harder.
Some brands, including Louis Vuitton,Chanel, andHermès, upped prices on popular handbags this year to get ahead of economic woes. In April, Louis Vuitton'sNeverfull GMbag got a 4.8% price increase to $2,200 USD, andHermesshared that it would offset the US's proposed duties by increasing selling prices in the US by May 2025. However, premature price hikes are a tricky game to play.
Chanel's ubiquitous quilted flap bag prices more than tripled between 2015 and 2025, according to Reuters. But by May this year, the French house, now helmed by Matthieu Blazy, rolled back its price increases after seeing sales drop for the first time since 2020, falling by4.3%.
With the 15% tariff on European goods set to go into effect, brands may be forced to increase prices even more if they want to balance the costs. According toUBS, the tariff on exports to the United States could force luxury brands to hike prices by 2% in the United States, or around 1% globally. Otherwise, brands face a potential 3% impact on earnings before interest and tax.
Of all the luxury leaders, LVMH ChiefBernard Arnaulthas contributed the most to conversations with Trump. In an interview with theWall Street Journallast week, Arnault shared, 'I'm pushing as much as I can for us to reach an agreement with the Americans, so that we don't get caught up in a trade war, which would be extremely damaging for European businesses.'
The executive has spent recent weeks 'trying to persuade the key European countries like Italy, Germany, France, and Europe as a whole,' pushing for leaders like Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz to reach a deal with the US President.
Currently the 5th richest man in the world, Arnault has been strategic about maintaining close ties with Trump, among the first business execs to visit the President at Trump Tower following the 2016 election, and also sitting front row at his 2025 inauguration.
During Trump's first term in 2019, Arnault opened a Louis Vuitton factory in Texas — and just last Thursday, he promised another Texas facility, appeasing the President's hopes for increasing the US's production. However, the first factory has already become the center of another controversy, following aReutersinvestigation that revealed severe underperformance due to poor staff training, retention, and output.
LVMH's ambitious response to both the luxury slowdown and shifting trade relations perhaps offers a cautionary tale for other groups and fashion houses. Increasingly, placing itself at the center of contentious geopolitical negotiations is a risky role to play for a luxury group centered on Old World authenticity and brand magic.
Additionally, LVMH has shaken up its creative strategy,sellingOff-WhitetoBluestar Alliancelast year, and now considering a potentialsaleofMarc Jacobsfor roughly $1B USD. Elsewhere, the group has engaged in an industry-wide Creative Director shake-up in hopes of refreshing interest, movingJonathan AndersontoDior, bringingProenza Schouler's founders intoLoewe, andMichael RideratCeline.
Industry leaders are watching closely, as Arnault's efforts offer a case for other execs hoping to protect their brands. Will other European fashion purveyors likePrada Group,Kering, andOTB Groupfollow suit? From price increases to on-shoring production and creative upheaval tactics, luxury's playbook for navigating crises is becoming increasingly convoluted.
Success may come down to those who can balance their ambitions to reach short-term financial targets with a commitment to long-term consumer trust and brand authenticity.
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