Why Keir Starmer is worried about Wales
Keir Starmer's address to the Welsh Labour conference this morning was exactly the kind of speech we expected. With eleven months to go until a difficult set of devolved elections, the Prime Minister fell back on the greatest hits to play to the party faithful. Labour is the party with the 'interests of working people at their heart' and 'it always will be', Starmer said. The Senedd elections next May risk producing a 'backroom stitch-up between the Tories, Reform and Plaid' with 'working families left to pick up the bill.' He reeled off various achievements: the minimum wage increase, workers' rights, the carer's allowance and, most significantly, a 'record uplift to Welsh funding.'
The audience received it appreciatively enough. But this was a difficult speech for Starmer to make for three reasons. The first was the immediate circumstances of No. 10's benefits U-turn. The PM addressed this head on in his speech, insisting that welfare reform was a 'moral imperative' but had to be done 'in a Labour way'. The second are the continued tensions between Starmer and Eluned Morgan, the Welsh First Minister. Amid clashes over benefits and winter fuel, she has demanded greater powers, insisting that she will 'not stay silent' about decisions 'we think will harm Welsh communities.' The difference in their approach to politics can best be seen in slogans. This year's conference focuses on Morgan's 'Red Welsh Way', versus last year's line 'Delivering for Wales.'
Yet the third reason was the most important of all. Labour is currently on course to lose Cardiff Bay next year for the first time in 27 years. The last two polls both gave the party just 18 per cent, which would produce a poor third place behind both Plaid Cymru and Reform UK. Morgan told her conference that the Senedd election will be a 'moment of reckoning'. But for Welsh Labour, it risks being a reckoning with their own record in government. She tried to attack Reform UK for their plans for the devolved health system, claiming that Nigel Farage's party would 'dismantle' the Welsh NHS and 'rip it up' for a 'privatised, profit-driven' system. Yet with Wales suffering the worst UK health outcomes, such attacks now resonate less than they might once have done.
The net effect is a fraught relationship between the two strands of the Welsh Labour party: MPs at Westminster and MSs at Cardiff Bay. 'Idiots', 'mollycoddled', 'smug', 'nutty and 'naive' were all words used by the former to describe the latter in a recent Politico briefing that circulated on Labour WhatsApp groups. Facing threats from both left and right, the party seems unable to decide on the best way of concurrently shoring up both flanks. For now, Starmer appears to have settled on talking up the chances of a coalition of chaos. But given his own government's struggles, talk of continuity and stability may no longer prove so persuasive on doorsteps out in Wales.
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