Pakistan's US Oil Deal Signals Strategic Realignment, Challenges China's Gwadar Influence
Pakistan's recently finalised oil agreement with the United States marks a significant realignment in the country's geopolitical strategy, indicating a departure from its traditionally China-centric approach to regional partnerships. The move is being widely interpreted as a clear signal to Beijing that strategic access to critical zones such as Gwadar is no longer exclusive to China.
Diplomatic sources told CNN-News18 that Islamabad is leveraging the deal to foster a competitive bidding environment between two major global powers—China and the United States. By doing so, Pakistan aims to extract greater financial and military commitments from Beijing under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), while simultaneously compelling Washington to increase its economic aid, infrastructure investment, and political engagement in the region.
'Pakistan is engaging in a sophisticated balancing act, using its strategic geography to negotiate better terms from both China and the United States. The government intends to utilise Chinese expertise in hard infrastructure projects while relying on the US for diplomatic support, especially in international forums such as the IMF and FATF," the sources added.
US President Donald Trump's announcement regarding the discovery of vast oil reserves in Pakistan underscores Washington's long-term strategic ambitions in the region. Experts suggest that this move is part of a broader geopolitical narrative designed to secure US access to Balochistan—a resource-rich and geopolitically sensitive province bordering Iran and adjacent to the strategic Gwadar port.
The oil deal grants the United States legal access to deploy American contractors, engineers, and security personnel in Pakistan's high-risk zones, particularly in Balochistan. The region's rugged terrain offers strategic surveillance points over the CPEC routes, providing the US with an invaluable vantage point to monitor Chinese activities.
The US aims to establish forward-operating business and intelligence bases in Balochistan, facilitating a multi-faceted presence that includes energy and mineral exploration alongside military logistics deployment. Observers note that this strategy mirrors US forward-basing tactics employed in Iraq in 2003, where military and business interests were integrated for long-term regional influence.
Pakistan's precarious economic situation plays a critical role in making the country receptive to these offers. Islamabad's economic challenges have created vulnerabilities that the US and China are keen to exploit, turning Pakistan into a battleground for influence through a combination of economic aid, infrastructure projects, and political support.
The deal has significant implications for the regional power dynamic. China, which has invested heavily in CPEC and views Gwadar as a linchpin of its Belt and Road Initiative, now faces increased competition from the US presence. Analysts argue that Islamabad's move is designed to ensure that neither superpower can dominate Pakistan's strategic corridors unchallenged.
Pakistan's latest deal with the United States thus represents a calculated geopolitical gambit. By balancing the interests of China and the US, Islamabad aims to maximise its strategic leverage, secure critical economic support, and position itself as a pivotal player in the evolving power dynamics of South Asia.
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