Gold price prediction: What's the gold rate outlook for August 11, 2025 week - should you buy or sell?
Gold price prediction today: Gold prices are expected to be range-bound in the coming days as the global economic uncertainties continue to weigh. Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial services Ltd shares his outlook on gold prices and strategy for gold investors:
Gold prices surged to an all-time high on the domestic front last week, driven by rate cut expectations, weaker US jobs report and tariff related uncertainties.
Dollar index was in a narrow range of ~98-~99 similarly, US Yields also witnessed some pressure, amidst a strong consumer confidence data was overshadowed by soft July job growth and downward revisions to past payrolls, pointing to a weakening labor market supporting bullion in the previous week.
Confusion erupted towards the end of last week after reports of a 39% US tariff on Swiss 1 kg and 100 ounce gold bars, initially spiking prices before the White House clarified the news was false, triggering a pullback.
Meanwhile, President Trump announced plans to meet Russian President Putin on August 15 to discuss ending the Ukraine war, while trade talks with China face an August 12 deadline.
Trump is also expected to nominate first economist Miran as Fed Governor after Powell's retirement. Physical gold demand in Asia rose early in the week but fell later due to high prices, while Chinese inflation data disappointed, pressuring industrial metals including silver.
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Market focus now shifts to key US inflation, retail sales, and IIP data.
This week, data points will be important as if US CPI data is reported better than expectations, it means the tariff impact has started to set in prices, as Governor Powell's expectations and it could once again change the interest rate cut expectations for this year and the next. India forex reserves dropped to the lowest level in 2025, suggesting RBI's active role in the market and movement in USDINR.
This is a holiday shortened week on the domestic front so moves in USDINR will also be important to keep an eye on.
Also, President Trump' s comments on the Russia-Ukraine war, tariff updates with India, China and others will be on radar.
Gold Outlook: Range bound of 99,500-1,02,000
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