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Best of BS Opinion: Economic shifts, environmental hopes, policy crossroads
Abhijeet Kumar New Delhi
In a significant move to stimulate economic growth, the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee reduced the policy repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.5 per cent and the cash reserve ratio by 100 basis points in phased stages, injecting ₹2.5 trillion into the banking system. While inflation eased to 3.2 per cent in April, the MPC shifted its stance from 'accommodative' to 'neutral,' indicating limited room for future rate cuts. The GDP forecast remains at 6.5 per cent, but the RBI stressed that achieving higher long-term growth would require structural reforms beyond monetary tools.
Launched on World Environment Day, the Aravalli Green Wall Project aims to restore 700 km of degraded terrain across four states. Inspired by Africa's Great Green Wall, the plan involves reviving native flora and water bodies to enhance India's carbon sink. However, challenges remain due to ongoing illegal mining and encroachments. As our second editorial highlights, without stronger governance and interstate coordination, experts warn the project could falter, repeating past mistakes seen in the Western Ghats conservation efforts.
In his column, Ajay Shah writes that India's economic prospects depend not just on rate cuts but on five strategic levers: trade liberalisation, soft monetary policy, structural reform, capital account liberalisation, and a weaker rupee. He notes that weak private investment and capital controls have stifled India's global competitiveness. While India benefits from geopolitical realignments like the China+1 shift, FDI inflows remain low. Trade deals with the UK and potential pacts with the US and EU offer an opportunity, but without bold reform, India risks falling short.
Meanwhile, Sunita Narain cautions that India's EV transition is progressing too slowly to meet its climate and urban mobility goals. While electric three-wheelers show growth, adoption in other segments lags, and urban congestion worsens. She stresses that counting electric vehicles is not enough, cities must expand public transport, reduce private vehicle use, and align EV policy with air quality and mobility planning.
Finally, Ted Widmer reviews John Hancock: First to Sign, First to Invest in America's Independence by Willard Sterne Randall, a biography that revives the legacy of the often-overlooked Founding Father. The book underscores Hancock's role in financing and steering the revolution, while also exploring the complexities surrounding his political and social legacy.
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Fashion Value Chain
13 minutes ago
- Fashion Value Chain
RBI Hits Pause on Rate Cut at 5.5%: Real Estate Set to Gain from Stable EMIs and Festive Demand
In a move widely anticipated by market watchers, the Reserve Bank of India has chosen to maintain the repo rate at 5.5%, following a cumulative 100 bps reduction over the past three Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meetings. For the real estate sector, this pause reinforces a climate of stability, keeping home loan EMIs unchanged and encouraging end-user confidence. With the festive season approaching and earlier rate cuts still transmitting into the system, developers look forward to seizing the opportunity to drive sales through flexible payment plans and festive incentives. A further cut in the coming quarters, if macroeconomic conditions permit, could act as an additional trigger for housing demand. RBI Holds Repo Rate Steady at 5.5% Mr Manoj Gaur, CMD, Gaurs Group, says, 'This status quo reflects a prudent and laudable step by the RBI, especially in light of current international dynamics, including the impact of the Trump Tariff. With inflation significantly below the RBI's target, the decision will definitely boost the economy and impart positive sentiment to the real estate sector, particularly at the onset of the festive season, a critical period for housing demand. We believe this consistency in policy will help strengthen buyer confidence and stimulate activity across the real estate landscape. It also enables developers to plan ahead with greater clarity, especially for integrated and long-term projects.' Deepak Kapoor, Director, Gulshan Group, says, 'The two successive rate cuts resulting in a total reduction of 100 bps over the last six months, the RBIs stance to keep the repo rate steady at 5.5% is as per the realty sectors expectations. The move aligns with the central bank's cautious stance against the backdrop of global economic volatility. It is also noteworthy that the previous rate cuts significantly bolstered housing demand, with Tier-I cities recording residential sales worth Rs. 3.6 lakh crore in just the first half of 2025. Even though a slight reduction could have further fueled this growth, particularly benefiting affordable and mid-segment homebuyers. We look forward to a possible rate cut in the festive season as this would provide a timely push to housing demand, especially for first-time buyers and budget-conscious investors.' Adish Oswal, Chairman, Oswal Group, says, 'The RBI's decision to hold the repo rate steady at 5.5% reinforces economic stability while continuing to support the housing sector. The cumulative 1% reduction since February has already improved liquidity, enabling developers to fast-track launches and project deliveries. Meanwhile, the firm reductions in home loan rates are gradually boosting affordability, especially for first-time buyers. Together, these factors are expected to fuel fresh momentum in the real estate market and pave the way for sustained growth in the months ahead.' Sandeep Chhillar, Founder and Chairman, Landmark Group, says, 'The RBI sustaining the status quo marks a strong pro-growth signal and undoubtedly benefits the real estate sector. With home loan rates likely to fall further, affordability will improve, especially for first-time homebuyers. This move is expected to reignite demand, sustain buyer interest, and create a favorable environment for continued growth across the housing market.' Gurpal Singh Chawla, Managing Director, TREVOC Group, says, 'The announcement by the RBI to hit the pause button after a 100-bps rate cut in the last 6 months will bring cheers to the sector. At 5.50% the home loan continues to be affordable, and given the fact that the festive season is merely two months away, it will boost the markets prospects and lead to the real estate sectors growth.' Mr. Sanchit Bhutani, Managing Director, Group 108, says, 'As anticipated, the RBI's decision to maintain the status quo and keep the stance neutral signals continued confidence in India's economic growth story. This decisive move is set to unlock greater capital inflows, especially into high-impact sectors like real estate. Notably, the commercial segment is seeing renewed traction. This would allow ongoing projects to proceed without repricing risks. For occupiers and developers, predictability in the financial environment signifies stability and is always welcome.' Pankaj Jain, Founder & CMD, SPJ Group, says, 'In the midst of global economic uncertainties and recent tariff escalations, the RBI's decision to maintain the repo rate at 5.5% signals a measured and prudent approach to sustaining economic momentum. While a rate cut would have further boosted home loan affordability, the current stability still bodes well for the real estate sector-especially luxury housing, where demand remains robust. With borrowing costs steady, both end-users and investors can plan confidently, and developers are likely to continue exploring untapped micro-markets. This move reinforces policy consistency and supports ongoing recovery across the sector while contributing to broader macroeconomic resilience.' Sanjay Sharma, Director, SKA Group, says the RBI's decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.5% injects optimism amid economic uncertainty. Setting a positive tone for the real estate sector, this will continue to ease the homebuying process, enhancing home loan affordability and supporting demand across the segments. We see this announcement as a positive push toward a broader recovery in real estate and the economy at large. Saurabh Saharan, Group Managing Director, HCBS Developments, says, 'The RBI's decision to hold the repo rate steady supports buyer confidence and keeps home loan EMIs stable. In Gurugram, demand remains strong, particularly in the mid and premium segments. While the recently proposed circle rate hikes may impact pricing in select pockets, overall market sentiment is upbeat and growth momentum continues. Stable rates will further drive residential demand and encourage developers to bring new projects aligned with evolving buyer preferences.' Ajay Tyagi, Chief Sales Officer, Better Choice Realtors, says, 'Given global economic uncertainties, the RBI keeping the repo rate at 5.5% sends a strong message of authorities being considerate towards real estate. This move will encourage borrowing, prompting more individuals to invest in property purchases and driving demand in the housing sector, especially amid the recently imposed U.S. tariffs.'
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Business Standard
13 minutes ago
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Rupee posts marginal gains despite Trump tariffs; ends higher at 87.70/$
The Indian Rupee closed higher, likely supported by intervention from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), despite US President Donald Trump's announcement of an additional 25 per cent tariff. The domestic currency ended 3 paise higher at 87.70 against the dollar on Thursday, according to Bloomberg. The local unit has depreciated 2.39 per cent so far this year. The US had already announced a 25 per cent tariff on Indian imports, set to take effect from August 7. The additional 25 per cent duty will apply to shipments arriving after a 21-day window, from August 28 onwards. India responded by condemning the tariff hike, calling the US decision "unfair, unjustified and unreasonable." The Indian rupee remained steady between 87.66 to 87.77 as the RBI protected one end while FPIs bought dollars at the other end, Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, said. "The Indian rupee today is under pressure but remains steadied by central bank intervention and sectoral dynamics in the Indian economy." On Wednesday, the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to keep the benchmark repo rate unchanged at 5.5 per cent. The Indian rupee got some support from the central bank as it kept the Repo rate steady, Kunal Sodhani, vice president at Shinhan Bank. The recent volatility in the rupee is relatively modest, especially when compared to sharper fluctuations seen in major currencies like the US dollar, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said at the post-monetary policy press conference. The dollar index, the measure of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was down 0.05 per cent at 98.12.


Mint
33 minutes ago
- Mint
Rethink policy: Let's take Trump's tariff tirade as an opportunity for tax reforms
Next Story Arbind Modi India's steep tariffs make up for local distortions that reforms can resolve. Let's axe trade-distortive GST exemptions, block profit-shifting paths for global businesses and let the rupee float freely. A level playing field for exporters will let us cut import duties. Continued reliance on tariffs risks trapping India in a cycle of inefficiency and retaliation. Gift this article India's tariffs are often described as 'excessively protectionist,' but the reality is more complex. India's tariffs are often described as 'excessively protectionist,' but the reality is more complex. They function less as blanket barriers and more as a response to distortions: an overvalued rupee that makes exports uncompetitive, goods and services tax (GST) exemptions that give imports an unfair edge and transfer-pricing practices that allow multinationals to shift profits abroad. Since tariffs are shaped by wider trade and fiscal policy, they serve to disguise rather than cure the structural weaknesses that limit India's competitiveness. They have been employed to protect domestic industry, encourage local manufacturing and cut import dependence. But continued reliance on tariffs risks trapping India in a cycle of inefficiency and retaliation, emphasizing the urgency of structural reforms. Instead of using high tariffs to counteract this, India should allow the rupee to depreciate sharply to its true market value. This would make Indian exports much more competitive and neutralize high US tariffs. As exports rise, the rupee will appreciate, creating a natural reset in its value without intervention by the Reserve Bank of India. The adjustment may create short-term price pressures as imports get costlier, but these would be outweighed by the long-term benefits of stronger export growth and a better balanced trade account. Another factor influencing India's trade prospects is the exemption of certain goods, including their imports, from GST. Eliminating these exemptions, with a single rate of 12% used across all goods and services, would create a level playing field, restoring fairness for domestic manufacturers and encouraging investment in local production. At the same time, concerns that ending exemptions might raise costs for the vulnerable can be effectively addressed through direct cash subsidies. India already has excellent digital infrastructure in place, undergirded by Aadhaar, Jan Dhan accounts and the Unified Payments Interface, that enables the government to make direct cash transfers to those in need of support. By using this system to protect low-income households from any cost rise, India can make the GST regime more equitable and efficient, supporting domestic industry without compromising social protection. Tariffs also serve as a blunt tool to counter profit-shifting by multinational corporations. Many of them manipulate intra-group trade prices to minimize their taxable income, undervaluing Indian exports or inflating imports to shift profits to low-tax jurisdictions. A destination-based cash flow tax (DBCFT) offers a clean and more effective solution. As opposed to corporate income tax, which is tied to where profits are reported, a DBCFT would be applied on the value of sales in India. Its border adjustment—taxing imports while exempting exports—would neutralize the incentive to shift profits abroad and safeguard the domestic tax base without relying on tariffs. While tariffs have helped offset such distortions, they carry heavy costs. Trading partners often retaliate, curbing India's export access, even as consumers pay more and industries reliant on imported inputs see their competitiveness eroded. High barriers also deter foreign direct investment, as global firms view India as a costly and less predictable market. A DBCFT paired with a truly free-floating rupee can deliver the same protection with far fewer side effects. A rupee allowed to find its natural value would make exports more competitive in the short term; as foreign demand strengthens, export earnings would eventually support a more stable and sustainable currency level. Also, such reforms would enhance our credibility in trade talks, showing that we are committed not to protectionism but to fair, modern and efficient frameworks that encourage open trade. We need a decisive shift away from tariffs as India's main line of defence to a more efficient system that corrects distortions without undermining growth. By adopting a DBCFT, ending GST exemptions and letting the rupee adjust to market forces, India would strengthen its export competitiveness, create a fair playing field for domestic producers and remove distortions caused by currency misalignment and tax loopholes. Such reforms would let us reduce our average tariff rate to a uniform band of 3-5% (without exemptions), with lower rates applied where free trade agreements call for it. This would not only dispel perceptions of India being a high-tariff economy, but also align our trade regime with global norms. Instead, by implementing the above reform measures as a comprehensive package, the country would be far better placed to seize opportunities that arise once the ongoing storm of tariff rhetoric subsides. The author is former member, Central Board of Direct Taxes, and former senior economist, International Monetary Fund. 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