Q1 results trigger selloff in NSDL shares. Rs 1,150 could be last line of defence
ADVERTISEMENT The stock fell as much as 4% during Thursday's session before ending 2.5% lower at Rs 1,175.35 on the BSE. That's down from Rs 1,288.80 on August 12, when NSDL posted its first results as a public company. Despite the pullback, shares remain about 47% above the IPO price of Rs 800.
For the quarter ended June 30, 2025, NSDL reported a 15.1% year-on-year rise in consolidated net profit to Rs 89.6 crore, supported by stronger margins and operational efficiency. Revenue from operations dropped 7.4% to Rs 312 crore, while EBITDA rose 18.3% to Rs 95.6 crore, lifting margins to 30.6% from 24% a year earlier.
Sunny Agrawal, Head of Fundamental Equity Research at SBI Securities, noted that 'NSDL's strong earnings growth in its first post-IPO quarter reflects resilience from a diversified, high-margin model.' He said that gains in BO account share, unlisted company leadership, and scaling of new revenue platforms 'offer visibility for double-digit growth.' Agrawal valued the company at Rs 1,400–1,450, with the stock trading at 70 times FY26 estimates.Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research at Religare Broking, said, 'Post Q1FY26 result, NSDL's stock price experienced a notable correction following an exceptional initial rally after its IPO.' While net profit rose 15.1% YoY, he pointed to a drop in revenue due to softer capital market activity. 'Sustaining this premium will depend on consistent revenue growth in the coming quarters,' he said, adding that near-term topline softness warrants monitoring.
Nitin Jain, Sr. Research Analyst at Bonanza, described the Q1 showing as evidence of 'operational efficiency and effective cost management' that delivered margin gains despite lower revenue. On valuations, he said NSDL's P/E of 70–77 times versus CDSL's 66 'reflects high growth expectations priced in,' fuelling volatility and profit-taking.
ADVERTISEMENT Jain said that the recent pullback is 'a typical response from the market to an enthusiastic surge and elevated prices, rather than a sign of fundamental weakness.' He believes long-term investors could see this as an opportunity, while short-term traders may prefer to wait for consolidation. Unlock 500+ Stock Recos on App
From a chart perspective, Drumil Vithlani, technical research analyst at Bonanza, said the stock 'shows signs of losing momentum after a sharp rally earlier this month.' Vithlani noted that it is trading below its short-term EMA at Rs 1,220, with RSI at 41.80 suggesting cooled momentum, and recommended booking partial profits while keeping a stop loss at Rs 1,150.
ADVERTISEMENT Siddharth Tyagi, Research Analyst at INVasset PMS, also flagged weakness. 'The stock has come under pressure following the results, falling over 9% since the announcement,' he said, highlighting oversold RSI readings, a bearish MACD, and weak trend signals. He pegged support at Rs 1,166 and Rs 1,127, with resistance between Rs 1,276 and Rs 1,346.Tyagi said that while Q1 results showed 'commendable efficiency and profitability amid soft revenue,' the technical setup and valuation 'paint a backdrop better suited for consolidation rather than immediate upside.'
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