Is Phoenix headed for its first 100-degree day? Spring is bringing a fast warm-up
Is Phoenix headed for its first 100-degree day of the year? Maybe, maybe not.
Either way, it's going to warm up, and we'll have to say goodbye to cooler weather earlier than usual this year. Temperatures are likely to creep into the upper 90s next week, bringing the heat to the first full week of astronomical spring.
A ridge of high pressure is building over the region, bringing the hottest temperatures of 2025 so far.
"We're going to see a warming trend continue for the rest of this week into next week," said Isaac Smith, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service Phoenix. "By Monday, we're going to be pushing into the lower 90s, temperatures well above normal for this time of year."
Normal temperatures in late March tend to be around 80 degrees. Temperatures will push into the upper 80s over the weekend, before climbing into the 90s next week.
Smith predicts temperatures as high as 97 degrees on Tuesday, with a slight chance thermometers could read triple digits.
"We're going to be pushing pretty close to 100 next week," Smith continued. "Chances are around 20% right now, with the best chances on Tuesday or Wednesday. That's when we see those higher temperatures getting into the mid to upper 90s."
Spring forecast: After brief storm ends rainless streak in Phoenix, weather outlook remains dry and warm
Next week could break or tie some temperature records. The highest temperature recorded on March 24 was 94 degrees in 1990, and the current forecast shows the high temperature this year could be tied with that reading.
Tuesday could also break a daily temperature record, with a forecast high of 97 degrees compared to an all-time high of 96 degrees on March 25, 2022.
The earliest 100-degree day in Phoenix on record was March 26, 1988. But this Tuesday could challenge the record if the high temperature reaches triple digits.
The average first 100-degree day between 1991 and 2020 is May 2 and the average first 95-degree reading is April 12 in the same timeframe.
This spring warm-up is arriving earlier than usual, although Phoenix already hit 90 degrees ahead of schedule this year on Feb. 25, compared to a March 30 average.
Despite some precipitation in the Valley earlier this month, there is no further rain in the forecast over the next week.
The National Weather Service's three-month outlook points to warmer and drier than normal conditions across much of Arizona and the Southwest. But this year's weak La Niña event could recede, with a 62% chance neutral conditions will return in the next month.
La Niña is a climatological event under the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. La Niña stems from colder-than-normal temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean, usually causing warmer and drier conditions across the Southwest. ENSO-neutral phases tend to bring near-normal temperatures and precipitation across the U.S.
But even if La Niña recedes, there tends to be a lag between oceanic temperatures and resulting atmospheric conditions, allowing warmer and drier conditions to continue in the Southwest after the transition back to neutral.
Spring days: When is the first day of spring? It's March 1 for scientists. Why they use different dates
Friday
Forecast high: 84
Record high: 97
Saturday
Forecast high: 88
Record high: 94
Sunday
Forecast high: 88
Record high: 93
Monday
Forecast high: 94
Record high: 94
Tuesday
Forecast high: 97
Record high: 96
Wednesday
Forecast high: 96
Record high: 100
Hayleigh Evans writes about extreme weather and related topics for The Arizona Republic and azcentral.com. Email her with story tips at hayleigh.evans@arizonarepublic.com.
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Phoenix could near 100 degrees as high pressure ridge settles in
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