Kelly Evans: What's going on with the labor market?
The jobs report was stronger than expected this morning. So why do things still feel so uneasy?
The report, in fact, was pretty good all around. We added 177,000 jobs last month (even with a 9,000 dip in government jobs). Nearly 55% of industries added workers, showing demand was pretty broad-based. Average hours worked rose, reversing a previous downtrend, and are consistent with 3% or better GDP growth for this quarter. the labor force participation rate rose.
"If...a major rollback in tariffs emerges, then there would be a distinct chance of avoiding a recession," wrote Brian Bethune of Boston College in response. That's a big of course--especially because productivity is collapsing, as we know from the negative GDP print last quarter. That still poses a major threat to the labor market this year.
Plus, there are other signs of trouble as well. The number of job openings, which peaked above 12 million in the stimulus-fueled post-Covid haze, is now below 7.2 million, and will likely continue dropping. (For context, these averaged 6 to 7 million pre-pandemic.) The ADP's measure of private payrolls only rose by 62,000 for April. The ISM manufacturing employment gauge is still contracting, as we learned yesterday.
Recruiter surveys from Aura Intelligence show further challenges. Staffing and recruiting jobs are down 28% from a year ago. Another bellwether for broader hiring, HR (human resources) jobs fell a whopping 40%, as Aura's Evan Sohn told us yesterday. "Employers aren't panicking yet, but they are repositioning," the firm noted. "They're prioritizing resilience, digital scale, and operational efficiency over raw headcount growth."
Little wonder AI jobs were a bright spot in Aura's report, with major hiring in those roles by insurance, non-profit, and marketing companies this month. That doesn't sit well with observers like Derek Thompson, who warns that "AI is competing with college grads," in a new piece in the Atlantic. (He'll join us on Power Lunch to discuss.)
Thompson points to data from the New York Fed showing that "the labor market for recent college graduates deteriorated noticeably in the first quarter of 2025." Indeed also reported such findings two weeks ago, saying internship postings are at their lowest in six years, and running 11 points below last year's level. "Outside healthcare, [there are] fewer opportunities to choose from," the firm noted.
So yes, the decent jobs report is allaying recession worries this morning. But that queasy feeling remains.
See you at 1 p.m!
Kelly
Twitter: @KellyCNBC
Instagram: @realkellyevans
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