The EU's Moldova dilemma
Moldova will host its first-ever summit with the EU on Friday – a symbolic milestone that underscores the country's accelerating pivot towards Brussels.
"The summit elevates the relationship to a whole new level, recognising Moldova's strategic importance for the EU," Moldova's Deputy Prime Minister, Cristina Gherasimov, told Euractiv in Brussels.
Yet, behind the ceremonial warmth, a hard political question looms: Can Moldova advance on its own, breaking the tandem it has maintained with Ukraine since both countries received candidate status in 2022?
Leaving Ukraine 'behind'?
A key deliverable is expected to be the inclusion of Moldova into the EU roaming policy, unlocking swift pre-financing under the EU's Growth Plan and cash for infrastructure projects, according to the most recent draft summit declaration, seen by Euractiv."On accession, (the summit) helps build the momentum needed to move forward with negotiations, by demonstrating both political will and progress on reforms," Gherasimov said.
Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has been unequivocal on Ukraine – they won't be joining on his watch. The ultimate prospects of both countries remain at the mercy of Budapest, which retains a firm veto over the EU's accession process.
Brussels looks ready to allow Moldova to inch forward, according to the most recent draft summit declaration, seen by Euractiv.
The summit could see a pledge to open negotiations on the so-called 'fundamental cluster' – the package of rule-of-law, judicial, and anti-corruption reforms that countries must implement before aligning with the EU's rulebook in other areas.
Yet the language has been noticeably softened, according to EU officials. An earlier version had pledged to open all six negotiating clusters, but that commitment has been removed, reflecting hesitancy among EU countries wary of moving too quickly.
Officially, the two countries are not tied together, as was the case with North Macedonia and Albania in the past, where neither could have moved without the other until EU leaders removed that provision.
Kyiv and Chișinău had merely made a political pact to support each other and advance their reforms in lockstep. But this is by no means binding.
Concerns about the optics of un-fastracking a Ukraine still crippled by war, however, have led to some confusing messaging from Brussels, including from Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos.
'Many feel that we can't give the impression of leaving Ukraine somehow behind, especially not after they've committed to a reform push under the worst war circumstances,' one EU diplomat said.
Denmark, too, which just took over the EU's six-month presidency, remains uncertain when it will be able to move ahead with the next accession steps.
Russia looming
For Moldova's President Maia Sandu, even such partial progress would be a political windfall. EU membership enjoys broad support at home, and Sandu has staked her reputation on bringing her country closer to Brussels.
Her pro-EU platform won her re-election and an EU membership referendum last autumn, despite the polls being marred by alleged Russian meddling.
Russian interference could again play a role in the country's parliamentary elections this September. The summit declaration is expected to strongly condemn Moscow's 'persistent hybrid threats,' from energy blackmail to disinformation campaigns designed to destabilise Moldova's democracy.
It will also call on Russia to withdraw its troops from the pro-Russian separatist Transnistria region, where Moscow has maintained a military presence since the 1990s.
'Already now, we are seeing efforts [by Russia] to downplay the significance of the summit of our engagement (…) a full-scale information war has been launched against Moldova, and the strategy is pretty clear,' one EU official said.
With the summit, 'the EU wish is to show Moldovan citizens, [but] also those who try to undermine their choices, that the EU is there, the EU supports Moldova, and Moldova does not stand alone,' a second EU official said.
(om)
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