Is this a good time to buy shares in Diageo?

Times

21 hours ago

The latest annual results from Diageo give every impression of papering over the cracks, reporting flat sales and lower profits, having lost a chief executive. Nik Jhangiani, the interim chief executive, produced as much positive spin as he could, even on the supercharged $625 million cost-saving programme, but could not disguise a 'challenging' environment led by rapidly changing tastes that, in the US at least, extends to competition from cannabis drinks.
Operating profits fell 27.8 per cent to $4.3 billion, but before $1.4 billion of exceptional items the reduction was trimmed to 0.7 per cent, giving a healthy 21.4 per cent profit margin. The main exceptional was the sale of the US-based Ciroc subsidiary.
Net profit was 39.1 per cent lower at $2.5 billion, translated into a similar-sized drop in earnings per share to 105.9 cents. That has just about let Jhangiani pay a 62.98 cents final dividend to maintain the annual payout at 103.48 cents. The stock market's reaction was to mark the shares up 89p to £19.04, suggesting investors were expecting worse.
We will not have a clear picture of where the group is heading until the board confirms Jhangiani in the top job or hands it to someone else, probably in October. Whoever it is will have to do something drastic to halt Diageo shares' steady three-year decline. As Jhangiani said: 'We have a lot to do.'
The stop-gap plan is to cut costs even more, promote the group's current winning brands — Guinness stout, Don Julio tequila, Johnnie Walker scotch and the blackberry-infused Canadian whisky Crown Royal — and move as quickly as possible to catch the surprisingly rapid transition to low-alcohol drinks.
While no one brand can on its own put a rocket under annual sales of $20.2 billion, Jhangiani dropped hints yesterday that his researchers are stretching every sinew to come up with an alcohol- and calorie-light successor to longstanding hits such as Baileys Irish Cream. They have taken 40 per cent of the calories out of that with Baileys Deliciously Light, but so far have been unable to do without the alcohol.
Meanwhile, Jhangiani is desperately trying to get his head around the unpredictable leisure habits of Gen Z, who are influenced by health considerations, other claims on their wallets and less compulsion to hit the bars on a night out. 'We need to make sure our offerings are tailored to social occasions,' he said. A lot of that boils down to moderation, the catch-all management term for no and low alcohol. While Guinness 0.0 has become a banker brand, the picture is fuzzy elsewhere.
Price resistance is turning into shrinkflation with smaller spirits bottles in Asian supermarkets. And that is also influencing the alcohol content of ready-made cocktails.
Overhanging the price question is President Trump's tariff campaign, which is due to add 10 per cent to UK exports to the US and 15 per cent on dispatches from Europe. Diageo reckons this could cost it $200 million a year at the operating profit level, mainly affecting the group's lucrative spirits brands. However, Jhangiani hopes to be able to offset as much as half of that with clever pricing.
The Scotch Whisky Association buttonholed Trump on his recent Scottish visit to point out that if production were moved to the US, the product would no longer qualify as scotch. While gin, vodka and other spirits are a different matter, it will take years and plenty of capital to build distilleries in the US. However, Diageo has made a start with a factory in Alabama.
Demand in the US and China is expected to be weaker for some time, and Europe is fragmenting. The group's former southern Europe sales force is being broken up into separate Spanish, French and Italian units to cater for different tastes. That adds to the costs that Jhangiani is trying to squeeze, while protesting that this need not mean job cuts. 'We want more feet on the street,' he said.
Despite Monday's positive stock market response, in the face of strong headwinds for the next few years the company does not yet have a workable recipe to take the shares back up to anywhere near their 2022 level. Maybe it will have to turn into a full-blown soft drinks company.
Advice AvoidWhy Future unclear until the CEO issue is sorted out