Why UBS just raised its gold forecast again as the precious metal hovers near record high

CNBC

2 days ago

UBS strategists hiked their forecast for 2026 spot gold prices, seeing a continuation of the tailwainds that have powered a string of record highs in the year to date. The bank kept its end of 2025 target at $3,500 per ounce, up from the current spot rate of around $3,340. For next year, it lifted its benchmark targets to $3,600 from $3,500 by the end of March, and to $3,700 from $3,500 by the end of June. It also announced a new forecast of $3,700 by the end of September. The upgraded forecast comes after a choppy few months for gold, with a first-half rally stuttering as a Trump tariff-induced flight into safe haven assets eased. In August, investors have been monitoring the potential for the introduction of U.S. tariffs on gold bars — later dismissed as "misinformation" by the White House — along with hopes of a breakthrough in the Russia-Ukraine war . An end to the long-running conflict could also reduce some of the global demand for safe havens. XAU= 1Y line U.S. spot gold. However, UBS strategists see plenty of momentum to carry gold for another year — much of it stemming from the U.S. In a Monday note, they said that a cocktail of sticky U.S. inflation — as the impact of tariffs and immigration curbs take effect — below-trend economic growth, the Federal Reserve resuming policy easing and further weakness in the U.S. dollar would all support prices. "In particular, due to the metal's non-interest-bearing nature, gold prices should rise as the first two factors push down real yields in the US (lower real yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold)," they said. The strategists added that investors would continue to be concerned about the U.S.'s fiscal position amid its growing deficit , and "questions over Fed independence" with the end of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term looming next May , both of which could drive gold demand. UBS also raised its gold forecast in April , citing the continuation of strong central bank demand. Strategists at the bank on Monday said that this trend "should stay strong, albeit slightly below last year's near-record purchases." Global central banks have been snapping up gold at a rapid pace in recent years, seeking to hedge against inflation and diversify their portfolios away from policy-sensitive assets. China, India and Turkey have been major buyers, helping gold overtake the euro as the world's second-biggest reserve asset next to the U.S. dollar last year. — CNBC's Michael Bloom and Chloe Taylor contributed to this story.