Emmy experts predict Drama Series race: ‘Severance' out front, but watch out for ‘The Pitt'
As Emmy voting begins, can Severance hold onto its momentum as the Best Drama Series frontrunner, or might another show steal its thunder? Four top Emmy experts — Variety's Clayton Davis, The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg, Indiewire's Marcus Jones, Deadline's Pete Hammond — predict the race with moderator and Gold Derby editor-in-chief Debra Birnbaum in our latest slugfest (watch above).
"We have to talk about Severance — that's Apple's main play," says Jones. The sci-fi series has been the category's de facto leader all season long. HBO and Max have an incredible amount of product this year, he says, including The Pitt, The White Lotus, The Last of Us, Industry, and House of the Dragon. He also declares Hulu's apocalyptic series Paradise to be "one of the big newcomers" of the year, with "an amazing performance from Sterling K. Brown."
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Feinberg agrees that The Pitt is "the most obvious" freshman drama to receive a nomination, adding, "I think it could even end up winning." Looking beyond the frontrunners, he's "impressed" by how many voters are telling him they're watching Your Friends & Neighbors on Apple TV+. But what about Landman? "That's a real wild card to me because, out in the real world, everybody's watching it, but it's TBD who's watching it in the TV Academy."
Hulu
"There are a lot of good possibilities in the drama series category," says Hammond. The Handmaid's Tale ended its final season amid "everything going on in the world, and seemingly this show has turned into a documentary, ... Handmaid's Tale is now true life!" As for The Pitt, he thinks it's "so hard to watch" because of all the realistic medical stories, and wishes there were commercials. "I need a break [from all the blood]."
Davis is already looking ahead to the Emmy ceremony, claiming, "Win-wise, I think this is Severance vs. The Pitt for the rest of the year. I think The Pitt is so Homeland Season 1 coded. I want to know how many nominations it gets before I can really cross over and say it can do it." He also creates a stir when he mentions how Pedro Pascal should drop down to supporting for The Last of Us because it's "more appropriate" after what happens to his character in Season 2.
As for shows that people are actually watching "in the real world," Birnbaum singles out Matlock, with its star Kathy Bates on the cusp of being the oldest winner ever for Best Drama Actress. "It's just such a strong narrative," she says. "You have to imagine voters are going to get swept up with that."
Which Emmy expert do you agree with the most? Be sure to make your predictions and join the Emmy discussion in our TV forum.
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