Narendra Modi Faces His Patriotism Test On August 15 When He Addresses From Red Fort

Arabian Post

4 days ago

By R. Suryamurthy
When Prime Minister Narendra Modi ascends the Red Fort on August 15 to deliver his Independence Day address, the nation will be listening for the usual rhetoric of progress, resilience, and pride. This year, the subtext must be different. With a possible face-off with U.S. President Donald Trump looming at next month's United Nations General Assembly, Modi cannot afford to leave his stance on the ongoing trade standoff to diplomatic guesswork.
This is not just another bilateral. It's a moment that could decide whether India's agricultural and dairy sectors — the backbone of rural livelihoods — remain intact or get bartered away in a high-pressure negotiation for tariff relief. The country deserves clarity before the Prime Minister shakes Trump's hand in New York.
Trump's decision to double duties on Indian goods to 50% is not an abstract policy tweak; it's an act of economic coercion. Ostensibly punishment for India's purchases of Russian oil, the measure has placed India in the same punitive bracket as Brazil and well above China's 30% rate — despite Beijing importing far more Russian crude.
The tariff hikes, effective August 27, hit India's strongest export sectors where competitive margins are already slim: Knitted apparel ($2.7B, 63.9% total tariff) and woven apparel ($2.7B, 60.3% duty) are effectively priced out against Bangladesh and Vietnam. Home textiles ($3B, 59% duty) could see Pakistan capture long-term contracts. Jewellery and diamonds ($10B, 52.1% duty) face survival challenges. Shrimps ($2B) will be decimated by the combined blow of 50% duty and anti-dumping measures. Organic chemicals, carpets, and machinery — over $10B combined — will lose ground to lower-tariff suppliers like Ireland, Turkey, and Mexico.
This isn't a tariff adjustment. It's a calculated attempt to choke India's trade advantage in sectors the U.S. can afford to squeeze, while sparing imports it needs, such as pharmaceuticals and petroleum products.
The hidden edge of Washington's strategy is its push to dismantle India's farm import barriers and open the $100-billion dairy market to large-scale U.S. exports. For Trump, these concessions are the trophy; for Modi, they are political landmines.
Agriculture still sustains nearly half of India's workforce. Dairy, dominated by smallholder farmers, is deeply intertwined with rural incomes and the BJP's political base in states like Gujarat, Punjab, and Uttar Pradesh.
Allowing U.S. dairy imports — often produced using feed practices banned in India — would ignite farmer protests and hand opposition parties a potent weapon. Past trade talks with both Washington and Brussels have collapsed over exactly these issues, citing public health, cultural, and livelihood concerns. 'Any compromise on dairy is political suicide,' warns a senior agriculture policy analyst in New Delhi.
For U.S. farm lobbies, however, agriculture access is the benchmark for 'open trade.' Without it, tariff relief will remain hostage to American demands.
Just weeks ago, Modi declared: 'The interest of our farmers will never be compromised. No international agreement can override the livelihood of our rural brothers and sisters.' Fine words — but now they must be tested against real pressure.
The Prime Minister's August 15 speech is his chance to send a clear message, not just to the U.S. but to India's own exporters and farmers: India's agriculture and dairy sectors are not on the table. Without such a public marker, he risks walking into New York with a negotiating position that is open to reinterpretation — and exploitation.
The symbolism of the Red Fort matters. It is the one platform where the Prime Minister speaks not as a dealmaker, but as the voice of the nation. By drawing an unambiguous red line there, Modi would strip Trump of the ability to claim — falsely or otherwise — that India has signalled flexibility behind closed doors.
Trump's recent 'trade victories' with Indonesia and Vietnam show the danger. Both deals were announced personally by Trump, bypassing formal texts. Both were later disputed by the partner governments. If the U.S. President declares from the UNGA podium that Modi has agreed to open dairy and farm markets, the global narrative will harden instantly — unless India can point back to a prior public commitment that says otherwise.
As Ajay Srivastava of the Global Trade Research Initiative puts it: 'If India doesn't immediately deny a false claim, the optics can lock it into a one-sided arrangement. A clear, written, and jointly signed text is the only safeguard.'
The U.S. double standard vis-à-vis China is glaring. Despite China being the largest buyer of Russian oil, Washington extended a three-month tariff truce with Beijing and continues to license semiconductor exports from U.S. firms. Chinese goods face a 30% tariff — half India's rate — because China can retaliate by cutting off critical minerals essential to U.S. industry. India cannot. In trade power politics, leverage beats loyalty.
If Modi addresses the UNGA on September 26 — three days after Trump — and the bilateral goes ahead, it could shape India's trade posture for years. This is not about who smiles wider in the photo op. It's about whether India defends its agricultural core or trades it away for short-term relief on tariffs that could be reapplied at any time.
The danger is dual: Concede, and Modi alienates his rural base ahead of crucial state elections and the 2026 general election. Refuse, and he risks being painted as obstructing a 'historic' deal — a narrative Trump will sell aggressively to his electorate and the media.
That is why August 15 must be more than a patriotic ritual. The Red Fort address should contain a line that is as much for Washington's ears as for India's heartland: India will not barter away its farmers for any trade deal.
Such a declaration would do three things: Set the baseline for any negotiation at UNGA. Reassure domestic constituencies that their livelihoods are non-negotiable. Neutralise the misrepresentation risk, making it politically costly for Trump to spin a false narrative. Without this, India's position will be whatever the U.S. claims it to be — until New Delhi scrambles to correct the record. By then, the political and market damage may already be done.
The tariff hikes are not just about trade balances; they are leverage tools designed to crack open markets the U.S. has long coveted. In that sense, the UNGA bilateral is not a diplomatic courtesy — it is a test of whether India can resist economic coercion when the cost of resistance is immediate and painful.
Modi's August 15 speech offers him a unique tactical advantage: the chance to declare his negotiating red lines in full public view, on a platform that carries moral and political weight. If he wastes it on platitudes and avoids the specifics, he will walk into New York on the defensive, with the U.S. defining the terms.
The stakes are clear. Trump's 50% tariff is not a policy dispute; it's a bargaining chip to prise open India's most politically sensitive sectors. The only question now is whether Modi will call it out — and lock his position in stone — before stepping into the UNGA arena.
If he fails to do so, the fate of India's farmers may well be decided not in the fields of Gujarat or Punjab, but in a backroom at the United Nations. And the Red Fort will have been a missed chance to defend them before the fight even began. (IPA Service)