Three big questions about 2026

Politico

22-07-2025

Presented by
With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine and Ali Bianco
On today's Playbook Podcast, Adam Wren and Dasha Burns discuss three questions that could decide how 2026 plays out — and why they're coming into focus now.
Good morning. It's Tuesday. This is Adam Wren. Drop me a line.
In today's Playbook …
— Are Republicans in better shape in 2026 than conventional wisdom would have you think?
— Could Trump's polling floor 'finally crack'?
— House GOP leadership looks for a pressure-release valve on the Jeffrey Epstein issue.
DRIVING THE DAY
THREE QUESTIONS: This morning, with no new enterprise journalism recently published on the 'Epstein files' front, President Donald Trump's allies are using the moment to regroup and catch their collective breath. House GOP leadership is doing much the same after scrapping several votes planned for this week as internal battles over how to handle the crisis have divided the Republican conference. And Democrats are viewing it all while riding what could be a sugar high.
Widening the aperture a bit from the Epstein drama, we're struck right now by three big questions with huge implications for 2026.
QUESTION 1: Are Republicans actually in better shape than conventional wisdom would suggest as the midterms ramp up?
The money angle: We learned this week that the Republican National Committee is sitting on vastly more cash than its Democratic counterpart. The RNC has nearly $81 million in cash on hand. The DNC? Just $15 million. And while the Q2 sums raised by the NRCC and DCCC are roughly similar, there too, Republicans have the financial edge: $32 million to $29 million.
Democrats attribute that fundraising disparity to Trump's brand strength — and the relative weakness of the Dems' own. 'You're seeing Democratic institutions like the DNC have some trouble raising grassroots money because these institutions are so tied to the national party brand …. which to state the obvious is not a popular brand right now,' one prominent Democratic strategist tells Playbook.
Now, exploring who has the upper hand as the midterms inch closer is something of a Rorschach test, with people seeing what they want to. But Republicans like what they have seen in polling in response to the question 'cares more for needs of people like you,' where the parties are tied for the first time in three decades (though this was long before the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill). And congressional Democrats, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released last week, have an approval rating of 19 percent.
'The trends are real,' an NRCC official tells Playbook. 'We feel really good about where the polling is. … We feel really confident about the momentum we have. The donor base is fired up.'
QUESTION 2: Can Democrats stay focused on a message that moves voters?
There is a certain allure animating Democrats' Epstein trolling, even as it forces them to momentarily set aside their better-bet polling issues — like, say, focusing on Medicaid or the cost of living. Of course, they can make a larger argument rolling the Epstein issue into what they characterize as Trump's 'billionaire protection racket' — and are doing just that.
How Dems are spinning it: 'Republicans are literally shutting down the House floor and getting ready to go on vacation early just to weasel out of releasing the Epstein files,' DNC Chair Ken Martin said in a statement last night (more on the House situation in a bit). 'While the American people elected leaders to fight for law and order and do their damn jobs, Republicans are bending the knee to Donald Trump and protecting an infamous sex trafficker.'
Added DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton, in a statement to Playbook: 'The midterms are shaping up to be a referendum on who is going to lower costs and help improve the lives of everyday Americans, not the wealthy and well-connected.'
But the Epstein issue's real salience isn't with voters who are up for grabs in the middle; it's in depressing the MAGA base.
Redefining the floor: This morning, Carroll Doherty, the former director of political research at the Pew Research Center, has one of the more provocative pieces of analysis we've read recently: Could Trump's polling floor 'finally crack'?
Trump's poll numbers are relatively steady, buoyed by his 80-plus percent support among Republican voters. But what if those voters' support of Trump dips? 'Because Trump's approval ratings move in such a narrow range, even small changes — positive or negative — over the next several months could have major consequences,' Doherty writes.
Here's why that matters for 2026: 'Even at his current level of support, Trump's job rating almost certainly will act as a drag for Republican candidates for the House and Senate,' Doherty writes. Were that level of support to drop by a few percentage points, the contours of the midterms could be much, much worse for Republicans — and their attempts to pad the majority by, for instance, redrawing the maps in Texas could end up providing Democrats with major pickup opportunities in a wave election.
Worth emphasizing: None of this is bound to happen or inevitable in any way. And on the road to 2026, Democrats have some major messaging potholes that can serve to either distract them or divide them.
One thing that could distract Dems: Where's Hunter Biden? Doing exactly what Bidens seem to do these days: interrupting a negative news cycle for Trump. This time, he gave a three-hour video podcast interview to Channel 5 with Andrew Callaghan, and used it to rip into Democratic critics of former President Joe Biden — from George Clooney to Jon Favreau to David Axelrod to James Carville. (Team Trump watched with glee.)
One thing that could divide Dems: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is 'quietly turning his caucus toward a critical decision on how to handle a fall funding showdown, after he and Senate Democrats faced blistering criticism from the party's base earlier this year,' POLITICO's Jordain Carney writes this morning. Today, as the chamber is set to vote 'to tee up the first tranche of government funding bills, [Schumer] is holding discussions with his colleagues about what their strategy should be ahead of the Sept. 30 shutdown deadline.'
What is that strategy? 'Democrats are mulling a range of proposals internally with Schumer about what conditions they can place on Republicans in exchange for voting to move ahead with shutdown-averting legislation,' Jordain writes. 'So far, Democrats have floated the idea of making Republicans agree to a deal on the budget process and specific policy concessions, or locking in a commitment from Senate Republicans that they will not support additional rescissions packages — potentially publicly or in writing.' But there has been 'no agreement among Democrats … about what formal demands they will make of Senate Republicans.'
QUESTION 3: Can Trump stay focused?
It's incredibly likely that issues like inflation and Medicaid will be more determinative in 2026 than the Epstein storyline. But we also wonder if Trump's own temptation to (a) fight back and (b) change the topic might end up backfiring by sucking up the oxygen that might otherwise go towards selling a positive message of Republicans' own — flooding the zone, so to say, against himself.
First in Playbook — Trump's new legal drama: One such zone-flooding opportunity comes from his new $20 billion lawsuit against the Wall Street Journal and its ownership over its reporting on his past friendship with Epstein, as POLITICO's Ankush Khardori explores in a trenchant column this morning.
Just one way it could backfire: If the case is not dismissed or settled, it 'would proceed to discovery, in which the Journal's lawyers would almost certainly get the chance to depose Trump both about the alleged letter and drawing as well as his broader relationship with Epstein — the latter of which would be relevant in assessing the credibility of Trump's denial of his authorship. The Journal would also presumably seek all of Trump's records or correspondence with Epstein — which again are relevant to the credibility of Trump's denial and any potential motive to mislead the public about the letter.'
Here, Trump's temptation to fight back — at least in the way he's accustomed to — is somewhat at odds with the GOP's political interests. Republican members would almost certainly prefer to spend August recess back home selling the benefits of the One Big Beautiful Bill to voters rather than anything to do with Epstein. (In that way, we do wonder about the political wisdom of House Republicans postponing the Epstein vote until after the recess, which potentially changes the narrative from a controversy contained to the Trump administration to one that applies to Washington Republicans writ large.)
One early test of Trump in a somewhat unguarded moment comes at 11:15 a.m., when he'll sit down in the Oval Office with Philippine President Ferdinand 'Bongbong' Marcos Jr. and reporters will inevitably try to get in a few questions. We'll be watching.
CONGRESS
RULES AND CONSEQUENCES: The House Rules Committee had yet another eventful evening last night as a bipartisan group of lawmakers tried to force a floor vote to compel the publication of materials related to Epstein — ultimately bringing committee business to a halt, POLITICO's crack Congress team reports.
How it went down: The situation was expected to mirror last Thursday's committee slog, but rather that 'work through the Democratic disruption, Republicans chose instead … to recess the rest of the Rules meeting altogether, with House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) saying it was 'unlikely' that the panel would reconvene this week at all. Later, lawmakers said there were no plans to return at all.'
The work goes on: House Speaker Mike Johnson said last night that despite Rules being at a standstill, he is not canceling votes later this week — they'll just happen under suspension of the rules, as The Hill's Mychael Schnell reports. Now, 'Republican leaders are considering sending the House home as early as Wednesday, after a bipartisan clash over the so-called Epstein files broke the Rules Committee Monday night,' POLITICO's Meredith Lee Hill reports. Read the latest in POLITICO's Inside Congress newsletter
The cause endures: Meanwhile, Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) remains steadfast in his effort to force a floor vote on his proposal with Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) via a discharge petition. An alternative being offered by GOP leadership as something of a pressure-release mechanism is 'non-binding, so it's kind of fake,' Massie said, as POLITICO's Meredith Lee Hill reports. 'The resolution I have with Khanna would be binding on the president.'
Buying some time: Meanwhile, Johnson confirmed to reporters that the full House will not vote on an Epstein measure before August recess. 'My belief is we need the administration to have the space to do what it is doing, and if further congressional action is necessary or appropriate, then we'll look at that, but I don't think we're at that point right now, because we agree with the president,' Johnson said. (One guy who's not a fan of waiting: Theo Von.)
We'll be watching tonight … for a readout after Trump hosts Republican members of Congress for a reception in the East Room at 7 p.m.
WHITHER RECESS?: Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters he was sympathetic to Trump's calls to nix the planned August recess and proceed with nomination votes. 'We're thinking about it, he said. 'We want to get as many [nominations] through the pipeline as we can.' But that might be a hard sell with his members, as NBC News' Frank Thorp and Zoë Richards report.
What they're saying: Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.): 'I'd rather not.' … Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska): 'For so many of us, this is the time that we spend in our state connecting with the people that we serve, getting out into the villages.' … Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.): 'Please wipe that suggestion off of your DNA.'
OUT-THE-DOOR PRICE: The final Congressional Budget Office forecast for the Trump administration's tax-and-spending megalaw is out: Over the next decade, it 'could increase the federal deficit by $3.4 trillion and cause 10 million people to lose health insurance,' POLITICO's Jennifer Scholtes and colleagues report. Notably, the latest CBO estimate of the number of Americans who may lose insurance coverage 'is below its prior estimate of 11.8 million people.'
GARBARINO WINS THE GAVEL: Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y.) beat out three GOP colleagues last night to secure the top job on the House Homeland Security Committee following Rep. Mark Green's (R-Tenn.) resignation, POLITICO's Mia McCarthy reports.
BEST OF THE REST
CRIMSON TIDE: Judge Allison Burroughs appeared 'deeply skeptical on Monday of the Trump administration's efforts to strip Harvard University of billions of dollars in research funding, suggesting the school might prevail in its legal battle against the government,' NYT's Alan Blinder reports. During a two-hour hearing, Burroughs 'unleashed a barrage of pointed questions at the lone Justice Department lawyer,' including 'how the administration could reasonably tie withdrawal of medical research funding to concerns about the civil rights of Jewish people.' In a post on Truth Social, Trump lashed out at both Harvard and Burroughs, whom he described as a 'TOTAL DISASTER.'
CALIFORNIA DREAMIN': Pentagon officials announced yesterday that the 700 U.S. Marines that have remained in Los Angeles since early June will begin to withdraw, LA Times' Julia Wick reports. 'Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell credited the troops with helping to bring calm to the area … 'With stability returning to Los Angeles, the Secretary has directed the redeployment of the 700 Marines whose presence sent a clear message: lawlessness will not be tolerated.''
PERSONNEL ISSUES: The Office of Personnel Management will have lost around 1,000 employees, roughly a third of its workforce, by year's end, WaPo's Meryl Kornfield reports.
MORE DEPORTATIONS TO BEGIN: The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 4th Circuit on Monday opted to allow the Trump administration 'to end a program that grants temporary deportation protections and work permits to more than 10,000 people from Afghanistan and Cameroon,' CBS News' Joe Walsh reports.
FED UP: 'Bessent calls on Fed to do comprehensive review of its mission,' by POLITICO's Victoria Guida: ''What we need to do is examine the entire Federal Reserve institution and whether they have been successful,' Bessent said on CNBC. ''They were fear-mongering over tariffs, and thus far we have seen very little, if any, inflation.'
TRAIL MIX: Jonathan Nez, former president of Navajo Nation, has formally launched a campaign for Rep. Eli Crane's (R-Ariz.) seat. 'If elected, Nez would be the first Native American congressperson from Arizona. Home to 14 tribes, nearly 20% of people living in AZ-02 are Native American,' his campaign said in a release this morning. … Perry Meade, a 26-year-old Democratic labor organizer, has jumped into the roster of challengers running for the seat held by Rep. Young Kim (R-Calif.), POLITICO's Juliann Ventura reports. 'Meade, the youngest member of the Democratic Party of Orange County's central committee, is making affordability the thrust of his campaign.'
TALK OF THE TOWN
Patrick Soon-Shiong wants to take the L.A. Times public.
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — A new nonpartisan policy group, the Food Security Leadership Council, is launching today with the aim of figuring out a new way forward for U.S. leadership on global food security. Cary Fowler, previously U.S. special envoy for global food security, is the president.
TRANSITIONS — PhRMA's public affairs team has added Elise Shutzer as VP (previously at ExxonMobil), Mark Allen as deputy VP (previously at Purple Strategies), Cait DeBaun as chief of staff (previously at American Beverage Association) and Kristen Booze as senior director (previously at the FDA). … Ian Banks is joining the Foundation for American Innovation to run its new Science Policy Program, focused on reforms to restore the U.S.' scientific enterprise and competitive edge. He previously was at the Conservative Coalition for Climate Solutions. …
… Christian Morgan will be head of government relations at BJC HealthCare. He currently is managing principal at HB Strategies and is an Ann Wagner alum. … Freya Charlesworth is joining Frontline Strategies as a digital account director. She most recently was an email marketing specialist at Push Digital Group.
ENGAGED — Chris Bien, floor director for Speaker Mike Johnson, and Katherine Sears, chief of staff for Rep. Vince Fong (R-Calif.), got engaged this weekend in Middleburg, Virginia. The two Californians met in 2023 at a birthday party through mutual friends on Capitol Hill.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. John Larson (D-Conn.), Robert Aderholt (R-Ala.) (6-0) and Seth Magaziner (D-R.I.) … Andrew Feinberg … The Boston Globe's Sam Brodey … Erin Maguire … Judge Amy Berman Jackson … Caleb Smith … Port Side Strategies' Will Fischer … Annie Lowrey … CNN's Terence Burlij … Travis Korson … National Association of Counties' Seamus Dowdall … Amanda Kules … John Shelton of Advancing American Freedom … Whitney VanMeter … former Reps. George Santos (R-N.Y.), Mike Ferguson (R-N.J.) and Curt Weldon (R-Pa.) … Soren Dayton … Elise Shutzer of PhRMA … Tarun Chhabra … Arshi Siddiqui of Bellwether Government Affairs … Nathan Naylor … Mike DiRienzo of the Silver Institute … AJ Jorgenson … former VA Secretary David Shulkin … Brandt Anderson … Warren Bass … Joy Lee … Emily Carpeaux … Leila Elmergawi … Ben Leubsdorf … Kay Bailey Hutchison … POLITICO's Alon Naor, Ella Feinstein, Linnea Carchedi and Rebecca Barnes … Don Van Natta Jr. … Craig Howie
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Correction: Yesterday's Playbook misstated the number of judges on a panel deciding the future of Alina Habba's appointment.
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Send Playbookers tips to [e-mail] or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Zack Stanton, deputy editor Garrett Ross and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.