Is ULFA still a thorn in India's side?

India Today

a day ago

On July 13, the separatist group United Liberation Front of Asom's (ULFA) Independent faction issued a press statement alleging a wave of drone attacks on four of their bases inside Myanmar at dawn that day. It claimed the strikes killed three of their top commanders, including Lieutenant General Nayan Medhi alias Nayan Asom. 19 have allegedly been killed and 19 more injured. The Paresh Baruah-led insurgent group blamed India for the strikes, but the Indian military has denied this.advertisementWithout getting into claims and counter-claims, it is highly unusual for a rebel group like the ULFA-I to admit reverses because it affects the morale of its ranks. The more important question one needs to address, however, is how important or relevant the ULFA-I is anymore. Does it constitute a major threat to Indian security forces in the northeast?To answer this question, one needs to remember that a faction of the ULFA had already signed an agreement with the Centre and the Assam state government in December 2023. This was the pro-talks faction led by Arabinda Rajkhowa, and included most top leaders who had been handed over to India by Bangladesh after Sheikh Hasina took over as Prime Minister in January 2009.
The Bangladesh crackdown left the ULFA with only bases in the deep hilly jungles of Myanmar's Sagaing region - bases in Bhutan had been earlier demolished in 2003 by the Royal Army in Operation All Clear, which the Indian Army supported.The Myanmar Army has occasionally responded to Indian pressure and nabbed some rebels. But it has never launched any major crackdown by the security forces in Bhutan or Bangladesh. This is partly because it's busy fighting many powerful insurgencies within the country, and partly because groups such as the ULFA are located in remote, hilly, somewhat inaccessible, jungle regions.For an Indian government that is committed to putting an end to insurgencies, be it in Kashmir, Maoist-affected areas, or the northeast, the denial of the Myanmar borderlands as a base is a high priority. It is in this context that the ULFA's Independent faction becomes important.Powerful Naga rebel factions like the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (Isak-Muivah) are trying to negotiate a final settlement with India — they have been going on since 1997. Only the NSCN's Khaplang faction remains hostile. But it's made up mostly of Burmese Nagas and focuses on controlling areas in the Naga Self-Administered Zone in Myanmar. The ULFA-Independent is based in those areas, along with some Meitei rebel groups of Manipur, with support from NSCN-K.Sarma's pitch for complete settlementThe Assam government under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has already offered an olive branch to Paresh Baruah, even as he's made an agreement with the pro-talks faction. His approach and that of the Centre — where he has considerable influence — has been to bring all rebel factions into a fruitful dialogue. This approach brought all rebel factions of the Bodo tribe to the table and led to a comprehensive settlement in 2020. The ULFA-I is the only remaining major group in Assam left behind in the jungles.advertisementSome may argue that the group's strength has depleted a lot due to desertions and arrests, and a drop in recruitment. The surrender of its deputy commander-in-chief, Drishti Rajkhowa, in November 2020 was a severe blow; as was the recent arrest of another top commander, Rupam Asom.The ULFA's appeal amongst Assamese youth is nowhere near what it was in the 1990s. Repeated splits in the organisation and loss of bases in Bhutan and Bangladesh have made it weaker than ever.Many thus believe this is the right time to strike blows and redouble efforts to bring the ULFA-I to the table. This is consistent with the Centre's approach against the Maoist rebels in central India. The offer for talks made to Paresh Baruah remains valid, but since there is no ceasefire in place. Indian forces can strike whenever and wherever feasible. Strikes that lead to the loss of senior activists hurt a rebel faction, which already faces a dearth of experienced commanders, and may be a factor in initiating dialogue.advertisementSpent force or a renewed threat?The ULFA-I's effective fighting strength may not be in the thousands anymore, but the group cannot be taken lightly for two reasons: One, while it may lack the ability to attack security forces through ambushes like the Naga or Meitei rebel group, it is capable of sabotage operations, having launched attacks on oil storage depots and gas pipelines before. Since Assam has many critical infrastructure facilities like oil refineries in place, this threat cannot be taken lightly.Two, with the regime change in neighbouring Bangladesh leading to the ouster of the India-friendly regime of Sheikh Hasina, the possibility of Paresh Baruah returning to revamp ULFA-I bases in the country cannot be ruled out. He has contacts in the Bangladesh intelligence community, anti-Indian political parties, and Pakistan's ISI, whose agents became active after Hasina's ouster.Therefore, some in Indian security architecture may feel this is the right time to neutralise the ULFA-I, either by bringing Paresh Baruah to the table or by engineering large-scale desertions by demoralising the rank and file.advertisementAssam Assembly polls are due in March-April next year. Any achievement on the insurgency front — starting talks or engineering large-scale surrenders — will help boost the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party in what is the pivotal state of India's northeast.(Subir Bhaumik is a former BBC and Reuters correspondent and author who has worked in Bangladesh as a senior editor with bdnews24.com)- Ends(Views expressed in this opinion piece are those of the author)Must Watch