Marathi vote to four key civic bodies, why Uddhav, Raj are stepping up to join hands

Indian Express

a day ago

Amid growing signs of an alliance between the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) and the Raj Thackeray-headed Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), Sena (UBT) leader Sanjay Raut has said that the Thackeray cousins would jointly contest the upcoming civic elections in Maharashtra, including that of the high-stakes Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) polls.
'The Thackeray brothers will contest the civic polls together and they will win. Talks are already underway for several key municipal corporations, including Mumbai, Thane, Nashik, Kalyan-Dombivli, and Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar. No evil force can now break the unity of the Thackerays,' Raut said Friday.
Uddhav and Raj had been estranged for nearly two decades. On July 5 this year, however, the Thackeray cousins appeared together at a pro-Marathi rally in Mumbai, renewing their ties publicly. Signalling a further warming of their relationship, Raj subsequently visited 'Matoshree', Uddhav's residence, on the latter's birthday for what was his second visit there in about 20 years.
These developments have come three years after the Shiv Sena's split. In June 2022, Eknath Shinde, the current Deputy Chief Minister and Shiv Sena president, had rebelled against Uddhav's leadership of the party and led his breakaway faction to join the BJP-led NDA. Besides splitting the Sena, Shinde's revolt led to the collapse of the then Uddhav-led Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government.
The November 2024 Maharashtra Assembly polls saw the Sena (UBT) and its other MVA allies facing a debacle, despite having put up a strong show in the Lok Sabha polls a few months earlier.
On the eve of the crucial state civic polls, Sanjay Raut emphasised the significance of four municipal corporations — in Mumbai, Nashik, Thane, and Kalyan-Dombivli. He said under the banner of 'Maharashtra and Marathi unity', Uddhav and Raj would set aside their differences with the shared goal of contesting and winning the civic polls together.
A united Thackeray front could consolidate the Marathi vote across at least 10 major civic bodies. Currently, with these votes apparently split between the Sena (UBT), MNS, and Shinde Sena, the BJP may be well-placed to have an upper hand. So, a pre-poll alliance between the Sena (UBT) and the MNS could benefit both of them.
The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) has been dominated by the Uddhav-led Sena for over two decades, but it no longer seems to be the party's impregnable fortress. The Sena has also been a major player in the Thane, Nashik, and Kalyan-Dombivli municipal corporations.
If the Sena (UBT) and the MNS join hands, the upcoming civic polls would test the coordination between their camps, integration of cadres, and voters' acceptance of their alliance. This may possibly reshape the Marathi-dominated urban political landscape in the state.
The previous elections to the local bodies in Maharashtra were held in 2018, with the terms of most of them expiring by 2022-23. An administrator deputed by the state government has since been running them.
Their fresh elections had been delayed over the implementation of reservations for the Other Backward Classes (OBCs). In May this year, the Supreme Court directed the State Election Commission to notify these polls with the existing quotas.
The BMC has long been key to the undivided Shiv Sena's urban strength. Its control over the Mumbai civic body for more than 25 years allowed the party to build grassroots networks, project governance credentials, and strengthen loyalty among urban Marathi voters. In the 2017 BMC elections for 227 wards, the undivided Sena won 84 seats, which increased to 97 with the support of Independents and six MNS corporators.
The emergence of the Shinde Sena following the party's split sharply eroded the Uddhav Sena's strength in both Mumbai and other parts of the state. Nearly half of the Sena (UBT)'s 84 BMC corporators shifted their allegiance to the Shinde-led outfit.
This exodus left Uddhav's Mumbai fortress vulnerable, opening space for the BJP and Shinde Sena to expand their influence.
Since 1992, the undivided Sena dominated the BMC elections, often securing absolute majority. While the BJP steadily expanded its urban footprint, the Congress and the undivided NCP played secondary roles. Despite being a small party, the MNS influenced Marathi voter sentiments, often playing a 'vote-cutter' for the Sena.
For the Sena (UBT), the BMC is more than a civic body – it symbolises organisational continuity and cultural identity for the party while ensuring essential funding networks for it. Any setback in the BMC would deal a blow to the party's operational and moral authority in urban Maharashtra. Thus, an alliance with the MNS is seen as critical for the Sena (UBT) to consolidate its traditional Marathi support base and prevent vote fragmentation.
Thane, historically considered the Sena's first urban bastion, has served as a key extension of the party's influence beyond Mumbai. Shinde, who hails from Thane, has long been seen as the local strongman with control over civic bodies in the district.
Following the 2022 split, internal divisions among Sena workers fractured the party's base. Almost all Sena (UBT) corporators in Thane defected to the Shinde Sena. While the BJP has gradually increased its vote share in Thane since 2014, the Shinde Sena's rise has caused a further setback to Uddhav's party. The undivided Sena won a majority in the 131-ward Thane Municipal Corporation polls in 2017 by winning 67 seats. But 66 of these corporators later joined the Shinde Sena.
A win here would not only reaffirm the Sena (UBT)'s relevance but also mount a challenge to Shinde in his own bastion. For Thackerays, reclaiming Thane is crucial to maintaining their support base among Marathi-speaking urban voters.
Both Nashik and Kalyan-Dombivli are also crucial for consolidating Marathi votes for the Sena. Both the cities have shown strong support for the Shiv Sena and the MNS in the past.
Nashik was the first municipal corporation controlled by the MNS, which also gave its mandate to the party in the 2009 Assembly polls and 2012 civic elections. While the Sena and the Congress had also alternatively ruled the Nashik Municipal Corporation earlier, the BJP steadily expanded its influence here in recent years. In the 2017 polls, the BJP won 66 of Nashik's 122 wards to secure a majority.
The Sena (UBT) and MNS camps believe that their traditional Marathi voter base could unite and rally behind them to check the BJP's advantage.
Kalyan-Dombivli, another Marathi-majority urban area, has traditionally seen a significant Sena influence, with the MNS also drawing from the same demographic. Since 2022, Shinde's faction has made inroads here too, turning it into a three-way fight. A Sena (UBT)-MNS tie-up here may also prevent a split of their votes and boost their prospects.
In the 2015 polls, the undivided Sena was able to clinch the 122-ward Kalyan-Dombivli Municipal Corporation, winning 52 seats on its own and getting the required support for a majority from other corporators.
Despite growing enthusiasm among the cadres of the Sena (UBT) and the MNS, their possible alliance would face various operational challenges.
The seat-sharing deal between them may become a contentious issue, especially in regions where both claim their influence. Sena (UBT) leader Anil Parab, however, downplayed it, saying, 'Uddhav ji has clearly said for the sake of the Marathi language, people, and Maharashtra, both brothers can set aside their differences. They are mature enough to know where each party holds strength.'
Another concern for the Uddhav Sena could be the stance of the Congress, a key MVA ally. While the Congress has not opposed the Sena (UBT)-MNS alliance, it has yet to formally commit to the inclusion of the MNS in the MVA. Congress leader Ramesh Chennithala has stated that while there could be no objection to the Thackeray cousins working together, he has held that the MNS's induction in the MVA would require broader discussion.
On the MVA allies' concerns, Raut said, 'Uddhav ji will speak to INDIA leaders including Rahul Gandhi about it. During his visit too, he spoke to Rahul ji about it and discussion will take place accordingly. But one thing is clear: The two cousins have already come together and it has created unease among the opponents.'
The BJP, however, dismissed Raut's comments on the alliance, with its leader Pravin Darekar likening the Sena (UBT) to 'an impatient groom who injures his knee before the wedding', claiming that the latter feared 'extinction' without the MNS's support.