US, Gulf Pressure to Fully Disarm Hezbollah Puts Lebanon on Edge

Mint

4 days ago

(Bloomberg) -- Lebanon had been hoping this summer would see the return of tens of thousands of expats and tourists to the crisis-hit Mediterranean nation, spending money in resorts and restaurants and attending festivals such as a famed one in an ancient Roman city.
But halfway through the season, the country is again teetering on the brink of conflict — one that could see a return to violence and instability after months of nascent recovery. New President Joseph Aoun is under pressure from the US and Gulf nations to completely disarm Hezbollah, and the Iran-supported militant group has made clear it won't back down without a fight.
Hezbollah, previously Tehran's most powerful proxy militia, sustained heavy losses in a fierce battle with Israel last year and US President Donald Trump's administration has presented Lebanese leaders with ideas for completing the group's dismantlement, according to Tom Barrack, the US envoy to the country.
The US has told Aoun it's willing to serve as an intermediary if he moves forward with disbanding Hezbollah as an armed group, Barrack said. That includes continuing to help enforce an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire part-brokered by the US in November.
At the same time, Gulf nations like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have told Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam — both in their first years in office — that funds for reconstruction and investment Lebanon needs to help recover from that conflict and a previous financial crisis are contingent upon a timetable-bound plan to fully disarm Hezbollah, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter.
The Gulf countries — who have eased travel restrictions after years of bans — want Lebanon to restructure its banking sector and crackdown on corruption as well — with the aim of controlling the country's vast cash-based informal economy, the people said.
But the end of Hezbollah as an armed non-state actor, giving the Lebanese government a monopoly on the use of force, are key, Barrack said.
'Gulf countries have said 'if you do these things, we will come to the south of Lebanon, and we will fund an industrial zone, renovation and jobs,'' he said, referring to the region of Lebanon worst impacted by last year's war. 'Not talk, but actually do it.'
The governments of Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE didn't immediately respond to requests for comment.
Aoun and Salam appear eager to meet the demands, and the PM said Tuesday the government has told the military to present a plan by the end of this month to dismantle all non-state armed groups by the end of 2025. Aoun, the country's former army chief, mentioned Hezbollah specifically when he made a similar pledge during a ceremony last week marking Army Day.
But Hezbollah, a fixture of Lebanese politics and civil life for decades, remains defiant.
It issued a statement on Wednesday saying it would treat the government's decision on disarmament as 'nonexistent' and accused Salam of committing a 'grave sin' by pursuing a 'surrender strategy' in the face of 'ongoing Israeli aggression and occupation.'
Naim Qassem, the group's new leader after the Israeli assassination of long-time chief Hassan Nasrallah last year, said Tuesday that Hezbollah 'won't engage on disarmament just because the U.S. or a certain Arab country is seeking and applying all the pressure it can muster' — a veiled reference to Saudi Arabia.
He threatened to resume missile attacks against Israel — which Hezbollah began shortly after the October 2023 Hamas attacks that triggered the war on Gaza — if it continues to 'widen its aggression' against Lebanon.
Israel, which still occupies five positions inside Lebanon, struck a vehicle in eastern Lebanon near the Syrian border on Thursday, killing five people, after bombing 10 southern sites the day before, according to Lebanon's official news agency.
Hezbollah, which has a political wing that's represented both in parliament and Salam's government, has sought to use Israel's actions to rally its Shiite Muslim base. Qassem warned them that relinquishing the group's weapons would leave them exposed to threats from both Israel and Sunni Muslim extremists in neighboring Syria.
'Despite Hezbollah's huge military losses it can still be a spoiler in Lebanon,' said Lina Khatib, an associate fellow at Chatham House's Middle East and North Africa Program. 'It does not need many resources to intimidate and threaten its opponents.'
Barrack told reporters the Lebanese government's fears about causing conflict by trying to force Hezbollah to disarm were understandable, suggesting that perhaps one solution would be to incorporate elements of Hezbollah into the Lebanese army. But he made clear this is a problem for Beirut, saying that if the Lebanese government doesn't disarm Hezbollah 'America is not going to come in and put Marines on the ground to do that for you.'
The US has designated Hezbollah a terrorist organization since 1997.
The situation is further complicated by Hezbollah being now 'managed a lot more closely by the Iranians' and a major decision like disarmament 'can't be taken autonomously from Iran,' according to Michael Young, a commentator and senior editor at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. The issue should be on the table in any further talks between Iran and the US about Tehran's nuclear capabilities.
A similar standoff over Hezbollah's arms culminated in the 2005 assassination of former Lebanon Prime Minister Rafic Al-Hariri, who led the rebuilding of the country with Gulf and Western support after the end of a civil war in 1990.
Gulf states collectively gave Lebanon at least $9 billion between 1963 and 2022, according to a 2023 study by the International Institute for Strategic Studies. But this figure excludes loans, investments and humanitarian and development aid which have been substantive over the years.
For example, the Kuwait-based Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development said in its 2024 report that Gulf states underwrote about $1.8 billion worth of loans to Lebanon between 1974 and 2024.
'The kingdom does not want to invest in a black hole,' said Ali Shihabi, a Saudi author and commentator close to the royal court referring to the present situation in Lebanon.
--With assistance from Dana Khraiche and Fiona MacDonald.
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