Can India navigate the challenges of US relations under Trump's leadership?

Economic Times

2 days ago

'He's okay today?' Donald Trump's musings will continue to jangle India's political nerves, but look closely and an alternate reality exists where a calm confidence prevails and work gets done. It's the normal layer under the abnormal.Difficult as it might be to imagine, last week, India and the US held a comprehensive, two-day dialogue covering all major aspects of bilateral relations at the White House as if the main occupant had left town. Goals and deadlines were set, aims and ambitions recounted, and the word 'strategic' that precedes 'partnership' came out in bold.
That's the best of diplomacy at play, where outcomes are more important than outrage. Yes, the recent India-Pak military confrontation was flagged, but the focus was adamantly on the bilateral agenda set during Narendra Modi's visit in February. Foreign secretary Vikram Misri and deputy NSA Pavan Kapoor discussed everything from emerging technologies, export control reforms, energy, counterterrorism, Indian Ocean security, Quad, India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), and complexities of pharma supply chains to AI, securing critical minerals, defence procurement, and manufacturing in India. Yes, India will buy more P-8I surveillance aircraft and more LNG from the US.
Misri and Kapoor mapped out deliverables for the rest of the year and ahead - smart strategy to showcase the breadth and depth of the relationship and deny centre stage to the recent India-Pak crisis. The two sides nailed down dates for the Quad foreign ministers' meeting - it appears that S Jaishankar and his Japanese, Australian and US counterparts will meet in Washington on July 1. Nothing of this nature - a concentrated and condensed dialogue - has been convened before where so many US officials gather at the White House for 'India Day', as it were. Whether caused by necessity (administration structures are still evolving) or design (NSC wants total policy control) is irrelevant. Officials from both sides decided that the White House as a venue would be a signal for all those watching.Incidentally, Indian officials had kept top US officials well-informed about the ground situation from May 6 to 10 - the before, during and after - as missiles flew and drones swarmed. It was an important gesture, and the US side understood.Misri and Kapoor reinforced the message on Pakistan's support, financing and training of terrorist groups, and emphasised the need to return Pakistan to the grey list of FATF. The US treasury should also consider World Bank lending and coordinate strategy at international financial institutions and the UN.Note that Pakistan is a non-permanent member of UNSC until December 2026 and will hold the council's rotating presidency for July. While India and the US work closely at the UN, Pakistan's presidency will pose challenges. Expect moves to raise the Kashmir dispute (for domestic consumption) and countermoves by India's battle-ready diplomats.Pakistan as a permanent saboteur is a reality. Its full-time job is trying to bring India's house down since its own is beyond repair with all the poison running through the plumbing. US officials were told that US protection only encourages more terrorism. Will the Trump administration curtail the field marshal's runaway ambition, egged on by Beijing? The Indian side also flagged the slow implosion underway in Bangladesh under Muhammad Yunus, who doesn't have the skills the state department imagined he did.It's true that the gamut of issues negatively affecting India/Indians under Trump 2.0 is disturbing - impending tariffs, threats to Apple not to make in India, a proposed 3.5% tax on remittances, stricter controls on semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and visa questions hanging over thousands of students, to say nothing of the political difficulties created by the US president's daily claims to own the India-Pak ceasefire and his apparent amnesia on terrorism.But relations must be managed because convergences are greater than divergences. 'Stealth diplomacy' in Trump 1.0 is functional again, and officials on both sides are doing what they must to keep the relationship moving.It's not lost on US officials that many in India feel a sense of anger and betrayal, resulting in some erosion of trust. Those in senior positions at the Pentagon and state department are trying to rebuild, but they need more coordination. Elbridge Colby, undersecretary of defence, could be crucial in pushing the India file.His boss, defence secretary Pete Hegseth's remarks at the Shangri-La dialogue in Singapore that the Indo-Pacific remains a 'priority theatre' are important. He talked of 'new milestones' with India in defence co-production, coordination and interoperability.China and Pakistan will play spoilers, but as South Asia analyst Aparna Pande said, even as they seek to distract, 'India needs to find a way to maintain a laser-eyed focus on economic growth and military modernisation.' (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of www.economictimes.com.) Elevate your knowledge and leadership skills at a cost cheaper than your daily tea. He termed IndiGo a 'paan ki dukaan'. Still made INR30k crore by selling its shares
How Sikka turned Infosys misfortune into AI springboard
Arrest of Pak spies signal the changing face of grey zone warfare
ET Prime Unicorn 100: Growth slowed for India's leading startups
ET Prime Unicorn 100: A fifth of Indian unicorns saw revenue decline
Can inclusive growth dividend transform economic security in India?
Increase both: Bullish thought & cautious and selective approach; 7 large-cap stocks with upside potential of up to 35%
Stock picks of the week: 5 stocks with consistent score improvement and return potential of more than 21% in 1 year
Stock Radar: Pennar Industries breaks out of 22-week consolidation; time to buy? Check target & stop loss for long positions