Morning Bid: Looking to April 2 with trepidation
The relief rally in global stocks was still in place on Wednesday in Asia, but with dwindling conviction.
It's not that there was any news - or late social media posts from POTUS himself - to change the market's outlook.
It's more that the rally has been built on optimism for a softer, more flexible stance from President Donald Trump, but the uncertainty remains - the tariff deadline is still April 2, and there's still no clarity on what will or won't happen that day.
As everyone knows, there's nothing markets hate more than uncertainty.
MSCI's index of world equities started the week with a 1.2% rally, narrowing to a 0.3% rise on Tuesday, and just barely staying above water very early in the latest session.
Japan's Nikkei, for example, began brightly with gains of 1%, but those were halved by midday. Likewise, Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose more than 1% early on, but was only up 0.3% just after noon.
U.S. equity futures flipped from small gains to small losses.
For now, pan-European STOXX 50 futures are signalling a 0.1% rise.
To recap, Trump suggested on Monday that not all the levies he's threatened will be implemented on April 2, and "a lot of countries" could get some exemptions, without giving further details.
At the same time, investors got a reminder of how erratic the trade situation can be, with the announcement of 25% tariffs on buyers of Venezuelan oil and gas.
And considering Trump has dubbed next Wednesday "Liberation Day", you would think it would bring at least some fireworks.
Certainly for markets, the day could be a crucial one, either signalling a more flexible approach to tariffs going forward, or confirming a hard line, and how difficult it is to read Trump's intentions.
On the European data calendar, UK CPI will be closely watched, with the outlook for Bank of England interest rate cuts looking increasingly cloudy under Trump's trade war.
British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves also delivers a fiscal update to parliament later today, and is set to announce an additional 2.2 billion pounds ($2.84 billion) for defence spending.
France releases consumer confidence and jobs figures, and Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau will be quizzed about the economy by the lower house's finance commission.
In the U.S., Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and St. Louis Fed boss Alberto Musalem both have public speaking engagements.
Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:
-UK CPI (February)
-France consumer confidence (March), employment figures (February)
-UK fiscal update
-Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari, St. Louis Fed's Musalem speak at separate venues
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