Australia Birth Rate Warning Issued: 'Human Catastrophe'

Newsweek

17-07-2025

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Australia is now at a "tipping point," facing a reality in which the number of deaths outpaces the number of births, which could lead to "human catastrophe," an analysis shows.
New data analysis from financial firm KPMG shows that while the number of births in 2024 increased from 2023, it is still dangerously low, behind pre-pandemic levels.
"Australia, like much of the world, is facing a human catastrophe," Liz Allen, a demographer at the Australian National University (ANU) Centre for Social Policy Research, told Australia's Special Broadcasting Service.
A file photo shows a crowd waving Australian flags at the Great Aussie Barbecue in Perth, Australia, on October 29, 2011.
A file photo shows a crowd waving Australian flags at the Great Aussie Barbecue in Perth, Australia, on October 29, 2011.
AP
Why It Matters
Australia's experience reflects a global pattern of plummeting fertility rates. Many developed countries, including the United States, are recording their lowest birth rates in generations—a shift that signals long-term workforce shortages, strains on public services and the dominance of aging populations.
A continued decline could mean fewer people of working age supporting a growing number of elderly citizens, undermining the country's tax base and putting pressure on social welfare systems.
The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) recently called the falling global birth rate a "crisis," describing it as a threat to economic stability and social cohesion worldwide.
What To Know
Steep Drop in Australia's Birth Rate
Australia's fertility rate hit a record low of 1.51 babies per woman in 2024, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
This puts Australia far below the 2.1 replacement rate needed to sustain its population without migration.
Some 292,500 births took place across Australia last year, which is more than the 285,000 births the previous year, but these are both well below the more than 300,000 births recorded every year between 2013 and 2019.
Economic and Social Drivers Behind the Trend
Key reasons for the decline include high living costs, unaffordable housing, and increased uncertainty about the future, according to KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley.
Similarly, Allen said economic and environmental concerns were putting Australians off from having children.
Regional Variations and the Urban-Rural Divide
While birth rates are declining nationally, the KPMG analysis shows that urban areas are seeing a more dramatic drop than regional areas.
"Rising rents, mortgage payments and childcare costs in the metro areas are putting a handbrake on people's plans to start or grow their family," Rawnsley said. "Instead, regional communities are continuing to emerge as popular places to live, work and raise a family, with affordability now top of mind for many Australians."
The Global Context: Declining Fertility Worldwide
Australia's situation mirrors an international trend. Global fertility rates have dropped dramatically since 1950 and are forecast to fall further, according to a study by medical journal The Lancet and recent data collected by Birth Gauge.
The United States has seen its fertility rate decline to 1.58 in 2025 so far—down from 1.59 last year, 1.60 in 2023, 1.64 in 2020 and 1.84 in 2015.
Countries in Eastern Europe and parts of Asia face even sharper drops, with some nations increasingly reliant on immigration to buffer population losses.
What People Are Saying
ANU demographer Liz Allen said: "We've essentially hit rock bottom, and trying to come back from that is going to be incredibly difficult. It will be a task that requires enormous policy and political intervention."
UNFPA Executive Director Dr. Natalia Kanem previously said: "We must create the conditions that enable people to exercise their reproductive rights, including gender equality and economic stability."
U.S. Vice President JD Vance said in January: "Our society has failed to recognize the obligation that one generation has to another as a core part of living in society. So let me say very simply, I want more babies in the United States of America."
What Happens Next
Australian and international authorities are expected to closely monitor birth rate trends and continue policy debates on how to address the crisis.
Long-term solutions are likely to require broad economic reforms targeting housing affordability, job security and childcare support.
Without significant action, experts warn that shrinking workforces and aging populations will pose major challenges for future prosperity.