Is Trump's tariff plan working or is this the quiet before the storm?
and his economic advisers are said to feel vindicated. Bilateral
trade
deals are rolling in and, in the main, on more favourable terms for the
US
.
Tariff
revenue is soaring.
Financial markets
are fluctuating near record highs and predictions that inflation would soar have not yet materialised.
Is this the quiet before the storm or is Trump's tariff plan, which nearly every mainstream economist says is destined to fail, succeeding?
In truth no one knows but every data point is being picked over for clues.
READ MORE
The latest job figures from the US for July were weak and contained downward revisions from a previously announced levels, suggesting companies might 'already been pre-emptively slowing their hiring amid the uncertainty created by months of tariff threats and pauses from the White House', according to one report.
US inflation, meanwhile, accelerated to 2.7 per cent in June without a commensurate increase in consumer spending, suggesting higher import prices from tariffs maybe fuelling prices.
Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell has so far resisted lowering interest rates like the
European Central Bank
because of the US's strong labour market and the upside risks to inflation from tariffs, much to Trump's annoyance.
Though concerning, the economic data don't exactly point to a big pivot in underlying performance and aren't likely to spook the White House just yet. But they do represent turbulence and remember much of the tariff impact has yet to play out.
[
US tariffs will mean 70,000 fewer jobs created in Irish economy, Department of Finance warns
Opens in new window
]
There's a lag time before higher prices get passed on to businesses and consumers because of front-loading and other dynamics.
Trump's first term in office did feature tariff threats but ones that met resistance from within the White House and which were eventually moderated.
This time, it's different. Easy wins in trade negotiations with Britain, Europe and Japan has emboldened the president.
Explaining the EU's quick capitulation, one insider said Germany, after enduring a gruelling energy price shock, 'wanted
stability and didn't care what the price'.
The average effective tariff rate on US imports is now at its highest level in nearly a century.
Will it send the US economy into reverse or will Trump and Maga operatives muddle through?
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Irish Daily Star
6 hours ago
- Irish Daily Star
Donald Trump Jr seen on camera making 'sexy' remark about 17-year-old daughter Kai
The president's oldest son prompted disgust from viewers who argued the behavior was 'creepy' and reminiscent of his father's past remarks towards Ivanka Donald Trump Jr. is facing renewed backlash over a video circulating online in which he refers to his teenage daughter as 'sexy' while prepping for his speech at the 2024 Republican National Convention.. The clip, which has gained traction on social media in recent days, shows Trump Jr sitting beside his daughter Kai, then 17, backstage at the event, in a makeup chair. Announcing to his camera that he has had make up done ahead of hitting the stage, he asks his child whether it will make him 'look sexy like you." After laughing awkwardly, she replies, "I think you look great" to which he thanks her before adding "I'm glad you think I look very beautiful." The pair were preparing to appear at the RNC convention last summer when he made the shocking remarks and shared them to TikTok, before both of them made a speech at the event. Donald Trump's oldest son has remained a visible figure throughout his father's second term, frequently posting from behind the scenes at official events and continuing to play a key role in conservative media circles. After viewing the resurfaced clip, social media users were quick to point out the similarities with his own father's behaviour towards his daughters, with one person on X commenting: "The rotten apple didn't fall far from the rotten tree!" Donald Trump himself has also long faced criticism for a series of eyebrow-raising remarks made about his eldest daughter Ivanka, with several past interviews and media appearances regularly resurfacing as reminders of the president's controversial approach to personal boundaries. In one of the most infamous moments, during a 2006 appearance on The View, Trump responded to a question about Ivanka's looks by saying, 'If Ivanka weren't my daughter, perhaps I'd be dating her,' a comment that immediately drew stunned reactions from the panel and sparked widespread backlash. He also remarked on her figure during the same interview, calling her 'voluptuous' and praising her appearance in terms more often reserved for modeling commentary than fatherly admiration. Though often delivered in a joking tone, the remarks have consistently been criticized as inappropriate, especially given the repeated references to her physical appearance and his own attraction 'if circumstances were different.' Donald Trump has five children from three marriages, each with varying levels of involvement in his political career. His eldest three, Donald Jr., Ivanka, and Eric, were born during his first marriage to Ivana Trump and were central figures in his rise to the presidency in 2016. While Don Jr. and Eric continue to appear regularly in conservative media and at campaign-style events, Ivanka has notably taken a step back during her father's second term. After serving as a senior White House advisor during his first administration, she has kept a much lower profile this time around, steering clear of formal political roles. Article continues below Tiffany Trump, his only child with Marla Maples, remains largely out of the spotlight, aside from a handful of appearances during election season. His youngest son, Barron Trump, born in 2006 to Melania Trump , was last seen at the January inauguration and has not made any public appearances with his father since. The family has remained protective of Barron's privacy throughout both presidencies, and his continued absence from official events has only added to public curiosity surrounding the teenager's life behind the scenes.
Irish Times
7 hours ago
- Irish Times
The Irish Times view on the budget debate: striking a difficult balance
A clear danger is emerging in the run up to October's budget. It is that all the spare cash available will be spent as Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael each try to get as many of their own policies into the package as they can, with the Independents also pitching in. Rather than taking a balanced view of the outlook, the negotiations thus turn into a haggling exercise. There were media reports this weekend of – unnamed– ministers saying that the economic outlook had not changed much and the budget can go ahead as planned. In this context, pressure will come on, in addition to the €9.4 billion package of tax cuts and spending increases outlined in the Summer Economic Statement, to have additional once-off measures. Ministerial statements, while suggesting there will not be a full cost-of-live package, have become more equivocal on this point. Ministers may be correct to believe that the short-term budgetary outlook has not changed markedly, with the US and EU striking a trade deal. But two points are relevant here. The first is that the two sides have really just set a framework for future talks and a lot remains to be signed off. Also, a separate US investigation into the pharma sector carries danger for Ireland., The second point is that, as Gabriel Makhlouf, the governor of the Central Bank has said, the Government needs to be careful not to add further demand to an already strongly-growing economy. This is all the more the case given the significant planned increase in State investment. READ MORE The balance will be hard to get right. But it must err towards caution. As well as the short-term issues, the economy is now facing significant uncertainties over the next few years. The trade environment is far from settled and tensions between the US and EU may still emerge. Meanwhile, the US president is determined to attract pharma investment back to the US from countries such as Ireland and this could threaten both jobs and tax revenue. And that is before we consider a troubled and rapidly changing international political situation. Ignoring these factors and squabbling over budget giveaways is the wrong approach.
Irish Times
7 hours ago
- Irish Times
Trump envoy to visit Moscow this week before deadline for ending Ukraine war
Donald Trump 's special envoy is expected in Moscow days before the US president's deadline on Friday for Russia to make progress on ending the war in Ukraine or face increased US sanctions. Mr Trump said Steve Witkoff would visit Moscow on Wednesday or Thursday. When asked what message Mr Witkoff would take to Russia and what Vladimir Putin could do to avoid new sanctions, the US president answered: 'Yeah, get a deal where people stop getting killed.' In Kyiv, there is little expectation Mr Witkoff will make a breakthrough with Mr Putin, but a hope that Mr Trump's changed rhetoric and tougher stance on Moscow may lead to a real change in US support for Ukraine. Sources in Kyiv said they expected Keith Kellogg, Mr Trump's Ukraine envoy, to visit the country towards the end of the week, possibly to coincide with Mr Witkoff's visit to Moscow. Mr Trump came into office convinced he could do a deal with Mr Putin, but in recent weeks appears to have become increasingly frustrated with Russia's actions. On Thursday he described its continued attacks on civilian areas in Ukraine as 'disgusting' and on Sunday said that two nuclear submarines that he ordered to be deployed after online threats from the former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev were now 'in the region', without giving further details. READ MORE Mr Trump had initially announced in July a 50-day deadline for Russia and Ukraine to end the war, but said last week he no longer believed Russia was serious about ending the war and shortened it to '10 or 12' days, later clarified as this Friday, August 8th. Mr Trump has previously said the new measures he has in mind if the deadline is not met could involve 'secondary tariffs' targeting Russia's remaining trade partners, such as China and India. [ Russia urges caution over nuclear rhetoric in response to Trump's submarine order Opens in new window ] Mykhailo Podolyak, an aide to Volodymyr Zelenskiy , said if Russia did not change its course by Friday, Kyiv would expect the 'irreversible logistics' of secondary sanctions on Russian oil exports to be set in motion. 'After that he'll look whether this is helping to bring about the end of the war or not, and if not then he will move to the next step,' said Mr Podolyak, in an interview in Kyiv. The next move, he said, could be further sanctions, and the increased militarisation of Ukraine. 'Trump has already said he's ready to sell Europe as much weapons as they want [to pass to Ukraine]. Before he didn't say that … This is already a different conception of the world,' he said. Before that, though, all eyes will be on Mr Witkoff's visit to Moscow. On previous trips, he has held long one-on-one meetings with Mr Putin and has spoken of his warm feelings for the Russian leader. The camaraderie has left both Kyiv and other US allies wondering whether Mr Witkoff is capable of delivering harsh messages to Moscow, although his visit this week will be the first since Mr Trump's rhetoric on Ukraine became noticeably harsher. The Kremlin said on Monday it was 'always happy to see Mr Witkoff in Moscow' and a meeting with Mr Putin was possible, the spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. He described talks with Mr Witkoff as 'important, substantive and very useful'. Mr Putin said on Friday he was in favour of 'a lasting and stable peace on solid foundations that would satisfy both Russia and Ukraine, and would ensure the security of both countries'. Despite periodically making such statements, Mr Putin has also made clear that Russia's maximalist war goals remain essentially unchanged, demanding as a minimum control over four Ukrainian regions to which Moscow has laid claim, and a commitment that Ukraine will never join Nato. Russia continues to target Ukraine with almost nightly drone and missile attacks. Last week was one of the deadliest for some time in terms of civilian casualties, with one set of attacks on Kyiv killing 31 people, including five children. [ The Irish Times view on Trump and Putin: the dangerous nuclear backdrop Opens in new window ] Both sides continue to target infrastructure in the opposing country with drones. Russia's ministry of defence said on Monday its air defences had intercepted 61 Ukrainian drones overnight. Meanwhile, the Netherlands will contribute €500 million ($579 million) to Ukraine's defence as part of a US initiative, making it the first Nato country to donate funds through the new programme. The Dutch package includes missiles for Patriot surface-to-air interceptor units, Mr Zelenskiy said in a post on X. 'I am sincerely grateful to the Netherlands for their substantial contribution to strengthening Ukraine's air shield,' he said. – Guardian, Bloomberg
